The positions of key players in Pakistan’s current political situation are fairly well understood; Imran Khan is fighting for political survival; the PML-N, lacking a coherent, meaningful narrative is doing everything in its capacity to avoid elections. The establishment is busy reminding everyone of what the real ‘red line’ is, and the PPP is assessing its parliamentary numbers with a view to form the next federal government. What is particularly interesting – and relatively unexplored – is taking a deeper look into what the future holds for Pakistan’s ‘electable’.
Before getting into the electables’ current predicament, it is helpful to recap what this term broadly means in Pakistan. The electable has traditionally been a rural political candidate capable of winning an election independent of party support. These candidates have typically had the backing of their biradri or gaddi and possessed significant landholdings, enabling them to collect votes based on their standing in the social hierarchy of their constituency.
It is important to note that not all electables today share this background and there are in fact politicians that have developed a strong support base in rural constituencies either through opposing landowners, as in the case of Jamshed Dasti in Muzaffargarh or through large scale development work, as in the case of Jahangir Tareen in Lodhran. However, even today, the majority of electables consist of traditional rural politicians from the landed class.
The electables have always taken centre stage in Pakistan’s political history, from pre-partition days through to the Istikham-i-Pakistan Party today. They have, time after time, found a way to keep themselves relevant by aligning with the establishment. They have also repeatedly switched political loyalties without (in most cases) facing any consequences from their voters. The key question then is – how long will this go on for?
This question can be addressed through a quick analysis of social and economic trends that are impacting the electables’ power base. To begin with, social media has completely changed the political landscape in Pakistan. With access to the internet across rural areas, particularly in the Punjab, rural voters have a far better understanding of what criteria to assess their candidate on. This has also given political parties a platform to communicate directly with voters, reducing the influence of the independent candidate or ‘electable’. Rural-urban migration and the unregulated urbanisation of rural areas has also contributed significantly to increased voter awareness and literacy.
This trend was seen manifesting itself in the 2018 elections when multiple instances were reported in remote districts of Southern Punjab of voters confronting their candidates, some of whom were tribal chieftains, asking why they had come for their vote after a prolonged absence in the constituency. This sort of confrontation would be unthinkable in prior elections and there is no doubt this trend will only increase in line with voter awareness.
From an economic perspective, the electables themselves are nowhere near as powerful as they once were. With constant sub-divisions of estates, their landholdings have shrunk considerably and in most cases, particularly in Central and Northern Punjab, are now a negligible factor in helping the electable secure electoral success. Even in Southern Punjab, barring a few spiritual leaders and large landowners, the size of their landholdings is considerably smaller than what their forefathers possessed.
With such trends at play in the country, one may question whether the electables themselves have reflected on this changing political environment. Their reaction to recent political events suggests they have. Taking Nawaz Sharif’s case as an example, there was immense pressure from the establishment on his party members post his Gujranwala speech in 2020, yet not as many of his electables left as expected. This was partly out of loyalty to Nawaz Sharif and partly out of concern for their own political future. They were well aware their voter would not forgive them had they left Sharif during his most difficult moment.
In the case of Imran Khan, the electables have been quick to jump ship, yet there is an undeniable nervousness amongst them. Having spent the last 5-10 years portraying Imran Khan as a savior of the country only to ditch him in his time of need are optics that will be difficult to defend, regardless of how strong the candidate is in their constituency. The irony here, of course, being that it was these very electables with support from the establishment that helped bring Khan into power in 2018.
Taking into account the above-mentioned trends and reactions, it is safe to say the electoral landscape in today’s Pakistan is vastly different not just from the Pakistan of 2008 and 2013, but also from the Pakistan of 2018, and this undoubtedly paints a gloomy picture for the electable going forward. At the same time, there are certain factors that will enable electables to maintain their grip for a while longer; support from the establishment and the willingness of mainstream parties (chiefly the PPP) to accept electables into their folds and the slow pace of rural development are all factors that will extend the lifespan of the electables in the country’s political landscape.
It is then up to the key stakeholders in Pakistan’s political system; the political parties, the voter and the establishment, to reflect and prioritise the democratic process ahead of their personal objectives when it comes to dealing with the electable. Focusing on the short-term, the next general election will be an opportunity for the voter to give their verdict on this issue. Whether candidates are able to campaign without any pressure, however, remains to be seen and given the PTI’s antics on May 9th, the prospects of a free and fair election are increasingly unlikely – providing the electable with much needed breathing space in the short-term.
Before getting into the electables’ current predicament, it is helpful to recap what this term broadly means in Pakistan. The electable has traditionally been a rural political candidate capable of winning an election independent of party support. These candidates have typically had the backing of their biradri or gaddi and possessed significant landholdings, enabling them to collect votes based on their standing in the social hierarchy of their constituency.
It is important to note that not all electables today share this background and there are in fact politicians that have developed a strong support base in rural constituencies either through opposing landowners, as in the case of Jamshed Dasti in Muzaffargarh or through large scale development work, as in the case of Jahangir Tareen in Lodhran. However, even today, the majority of electables consist of traditional rural politicians from the landed class.
The electables have always taken centre stage in Pakistan’s political history, from pre-partition days through to the Istikham-i-Pakistan Party today. They have, time after time, found a way to keep themselves relevant by aligning with the establishment. They have also repeatedly switched political loyalties without (in most cases) facing any consequences from their voters. The key question then is – how long will this go on for?
This question can be addressed through a quick analysis of social and economic trends that are impacting the electables’ power base. To begin with, social media has completely changed the political landscape in Pakistan. With access to the internet across rural areas, particularly in the Punjab, rural voters have a far better understanding of what criteria to assess their candidate on. This has also given political parties a platform to communicate directly with voters, reducing the influence of the independent candidate or ‘electable’. Rural-urban migration and the unregulated urbanisation of rural areas has also contributed significantly to increased voter awareness and literacy.
This trend was seen manifesting itself in the 2018 elections when multiple instances were reported in remote districts of Southern Punjab of voters confronting their candidates, some of whom were tribal chieftains, asking why they had come for their vote after a prolonged absence in the constituency. This sort of confrontation would be unthinkable in prior elections and there is no doubt this trend will only increase in line with voter awareness.
From an economic perspective, the electables themselves are nowhere near as powerful as they once were. With constant sub-divisions of estates, their landholdings have shrunk considerably and in most cases, particularly in Central and Northern Punjab, are now a negligible factor in helping the electable secure electoral success. Even in Southern Punjab, barring a few spiritual leaders and large landowners, the size of their landholdings is considerably smaller than what their forefathers possessed.
With such trends at play in the country, one may question whether the electables themselves have reflected on this changing political environment. Their reaction to recent political events suggests they have. Taking Nawaz Sharif’s case as an example, there was immense pressure from the establishment on his party members post his Gujranwala speech in 2020, yet not as many of his electables left as expected. This was partly out of loyalty to Nawaz Sharif and partly out of concern for their own political future. They were well aware their voter would not forgive them had they left Sharif during his most difficult moment.
In the case of Imran Khan, the electables have been quick to jump ship, yet there is an undeniable nervousness amongst them. Having spent the last 5-10 years portraying Imran Khan as a savior of the country only to ditch him in his time of need are optics that will be difficult to defend, regardless of how strong the candidate is in their constituency. The irony here, of course, being that it was these very electables with support from the establishment that helped bring Khan into power in 2018.
Taking into account the above-mentioned trends and reactions, it is safe to say the electoral landscape in today’s Pakistan is vastly different not just from the Pakistan of 2008 and 2013, but also from the Pakistan of 2018, and this undoubtedly paints a gloomy picture for the electable going forward. At the same time, there are certain factors that will enable electables to maintain their grip for a while longer; support from the establishment and the willingness of mainstream parties (chiefly the PPP) to accept electables into their folds and the slow pace of rural development are all factors that will extend the lifespan of the electables in the country’s political landscape.
It is then up to the key stakeholders in Pakistan’s political system; the political parties, the voter and the establishment, to reflect and prioritise the democratic process ahead of their personal objectives when it comes to dealing with the electable. Focusing on the short-term, the next general election will be an opportunity for the voter to give their verdict on this issue. Whether candidates are able to campaign without any pressure, however, remains to be seen and given the PTI’s antics on May 9th, the prospects of a free and fair election are increasingly unlikely – providing the electable with much needed breathing space in the short-term.