Since 1993, World Water Day has been observed annually on March 22nd under the auspices of the United Nations, emphasizing the significance of freshwater. This occasion celebrates water and increases awareness about the 2.2 billion individuals who lack access to safe water, urging action to address the global water crisis. A key objective of World Water Day is to support the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal 6, which aims to ensure universal access to water and sanitation by 2030. In addition to SDG 6, water plays a crucial role in achieving other Sustainable Development Goals, such as poverty eradication, hunger alleviation, promoting good health and wellbeing, and fostering peace, justice, and strong institutions. Annually, UN-Water, the UN's coordination body for water and sanitation, selects a theme for World Water Day. In 2023, the focus was on "Accelerating Change," while in 2024, the theme will center on “Leveraging Water for Peace.”
How can water be leveraged for peace? Currently, its spatial and temporal availability is contested among different nation-states and sub-national entities. Mikhail Gorbachev rightly pointed out, “Water, like religion and ideology, has the power to move millions of people. Since the very birth of human civilization, people have moved to settle close to it. People move when there is too little of it. People move when there is too much of it. People journey down it. People write, sing, and dance about it. People fight over it. And all people, everywhere and every day, need it.”
Despite the fact that this treaty is unable to cope with future challenges such as climate change-induced flow variations in the river streams, failure to accommodate environmental flows for eastern rivers, and, more importantly, the inability to address a transboundary groundwater governance framework, the Indus Water Treaty has remained resilient, even during two wars.
We often hear and discuss the possibility of a 3rd World War due to water conflicts because 276 international watercourses sustain key freshwater supplies and ecosystems in 148 countries, covering half of the earth’s surface and home to 40% of the global population. These international watercourses generate approximately 60% of global freshwater flows. While cooperative management frameworks exist for about 40% of watercourses, water is highly contested between intra- and inter-state entities. However, the positive aspect is that it serves as a source of cooperation rather than conflicts. For example, in the past 60 years, only 37 recorded cases of violence between states (mostly related to Israel) over water have occurred.
Pakistan and India also share the common watershed—the Indus Basin—and negotiated a transboundary treaty called the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in 1960. Despite the fact that this treaty is unable to cope with future challenges such as climate change-induced flow variations in the river streams, failure to accommodate environmental flows for eastern rivers, and, more importantly, the inability to address a transboundary groundwater governance framework, the Indus Water Treaty has remained resilient, even during two wars. The resilience of an institution is defined as “the ability of the institution to manage disputes and facilitate cooperation when the relationship between member states is antagonistic.” In this regard, the IWT passed two resilience tests.
Throughout the turbulence and warfare of 1965, the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) held meetings in January, February, and May 1965. According to the annual report summarizing activities from 1964 to 1965, the commissioners disposed of 10 of the 19 items they discussed. For activities conducted from 1965 to 1966, the commissioners discussed 11 items, and eight were disposed of. Despite the war and lack of diplomatic relations between 1971 and 1975, the PIC continued to hold its meetings, although their number declined. The commission held one meeting in 1971, 1972, 1973, and 1974. In the 1970–71 work year, of the 14 issues discussed, the commissioners disposed of five. In the 1971–72 work year, of the five issues discussed, three were disposed of. These statistics are sufficient to dispel notions of water wars and demonstrate human agency rationality to act more cooperatively. However, the IWT needs future cooperation more closely to resolve future challenges rather than recent bellicose statements from PM Modi that “blood and water can’t flow together.”
Initiating negotiations for environmental flow for the Eastern Rivers can address ecological concerns and help to generate the riverfronts economy in the downstream cities like Lahore at the Ravi River. Furthermore, demilitarizing the Siachen Glacier and declaring it as a protected area would mitigate security tensions and contribute to environmental conservation.
In contrast to international transboundary water treaty that prioritize water cooperation, collaboration and equitable sharing, the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) is primarily focused on dispute resolution. While Article VII of the treaty allows for potential future cooperation for optimal resource utilization, the treaty's scope for benefit sharing remains limited due to historical animosity between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. Benefit sharing entails shifting the focus from individual resource utilization to distributing benefits from mutual resource development, such as hydropower generation or flood control. A prime example of benefit sharing is seen in the Columbia River Treaty between Canada and the US, where Canada receives compensation for upstream flood control and shares hydropower development with the US. Similarly, Brazil and Paraguay exemplify benefit sharing through their joint hydropower plant, Itaipu, on the Paraná River, with provisions for equal electricity share and royalties without taxation on the new joint entity or electric services produced.
Moving forward, several strategies can be explored to enhance the resilience of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) and foster regional peace between India and Pakistan. Firstly, the adoption of state-of-the-art real-time satellite-based products and telemetry systems can be instrumental in monitoring water quantity and quality, ensuring transparency and accountability among the both parties. Secondly, reforming the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) and establishing a Basin Level Body, inclusive of neutral experts from outside the South Asia region, can facilitate the development of scientific evidence and unbiased decision-making processes. Additionally, the formulation of a joint action strategy for watershed management would promote collaborative efforts in maintaining and preserving water resources.
Moreover, initiating negotiations for environmental flow for the Eastern Rivers can address ecological concerns and help to generate the riverfronts economy in the downstream cities like Lahore at the Ravi River. Furthermore, demilitarizing the Siachen Glacier and declaring it as a protected area would mitigate security tensions and contribute to environmental conservation. Finally, addressing narrow perceptions about each other and implementing confidence-building measures, such as regional trade initiatives, can foster trust and cooperation between the two nations. These measures collectively aim to strengthen the IWT and pave the way for sustainable water management practices while fostering peace and stability in the region.