Bitter and Sunny sides of a Global Calamity

As the world settles in to deal with the spread of the Coronavirus, the future seems uncertain and unpredictable. Leading biologists, epidemiologists and statisticians of the world are in search of a model that explains the behavior of Covid-19. The number of daily infections and deaths defy comprehension. If each count of death represents a life-story, then there are now nearly 171,810 tragic stories (and counting). The print, social and electronic media is full of coverage of its deadly course, and eyes skip every other news to latch on to every tidbit about the virus.

This author, too, took up the laptop to write on an event of 813 AD but found it hard to concentrate on anything other than this raging affliction.

There are vague estimates on the time that it would take for the virus to play out its course. While it is certain that all earlier virus epidemics and pandemics have ultimately outlived their dangerous course and that a combination of human biology and medical expertise ultimately triumphed over these deadly micro-organisms, it is not certain what much cost it will demand of humanity this time: in terms of lives lost, individual pain caused and collective economic collapse. Many people mention ‘herd immunity’ which essentially hides the painful fact that we all shall catch the virus sooner or later. Then according to the Darwinian process of ‘natural selection’, those who overcome its onslaught and survive shall continue the human race. Those not making the ‘selection’ shall return to their Maker, as all of us must in our own time. That would make, according to the projected models in the absence of a vaccine, 10 to 20 million fatalities in the next three years – by which time all of us should have caught the virus and the survivors would have developed antibodies.

There is thus no denying that humanity is in for troubled times in the near future. Some encouraging figures have been reported from around the globe in terms of lower new infection rates, fewer deaths, flatter curves and more recoveries, and in this lies the hope that the ‘peak’ of the pandemic shall pass before the peak of the summer in the northern hemisphere, bringing some semblance of normality in the world.

In the process, the world economy is taking a terrible battering, certainly more that than the recession of 2007-08. The world has not seen this level of downturn since the Great Depression – which also occurred relatively close in time to a similar pandemic; that of the Spanish (actually American) Influenza.

While the ‘bad news’ abounds and a pall of gloom thickens, there is some also a sunny side to the calamity.

One is a surge in scientific activity. Up to the 30th of January, more than 50 research papers had been published as scientists rush to understand the pathogen and how it spreads. By mid-March, there were over 300 journal articles while the pre-print articles were nearing 600. One of the first papers on the virus was published online on the 3rd of February but submitted on the 20th of January by a team of Wuhan-based Chinese researchers from Institute of Virology at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and some hospitals. The paper was curiously titled “A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin.”



Institutions and laboratories around the world are in a fevered state to find a cure and a vaccine for the microbe. A flurry of scientific activity has been extending the human horizon, promising a better future. In Pakistan, too, we hear encouraging news of development of testing kits, plasma treatment, ventilators, PPEs and face-masks. It shows that while the religious elements are behaving in their expected obscurantist manner, the scientists are playing their part to mitigate the suffering of the masses.

There are widespread reports from across the country that hospital emergencies have less of a workload. The major emergency patients were road accident victims, diarrhea patients and ailments resulting from a polluted environment. With restricted movement and empty roads, motorcycle accidents came down to zero, which otherwise contributed heavily to the accident toll, mainly involving young men. Similarly, with the restaurants and street food stalls closed, people are forced to eat healthy at home, resulting in fewer stomach ailments.

The crime rate, too, has fallen. There are fewer murders, quarrels or even gang wars. Perhaps, the virus has even tamed (or at least restrained) the male chauvinists. Could the virus be putting the fear of God even in the most felonious?

In Pakistan, a more generous side of the nation is in full display. NGOs are overflowing with donated rations. The Sindh government announced that by the middle of April, 200,000 families were supplied rations officially, whereas the NGOs had done it for nearly 350,000. That is remarkable and a proud moment.

n the international level, there appears to be quiet on all combat fronts. The multiple sided conflicts in Syria have cooled down somewhat. Even the Taliban activities have come to a near stop, giving the Afghans their first peace spell in four decades. The Saudi-led coalition has announced a truce in Yemen, the first such welcome break for the hapless country in five years. Neither is the US threatening Iran nor is North Korea displaying bellicosity against neighbours. These welcome breaks in hostilities are understandable because with social distancing compulsions, no power can assemble troops for offensive operations.

With the tragic sagas of various pleasure-cruise ships and the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier the USS Theodore Roosevelt, the security of warships is severely compromised. It is reported that four US aircraft carriers are infected with the virus, as is the French nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles De Gaulle. It will take some time before the bellicose powers can project their forces with confidence. A little virus has brought peace, or at least a truce, to parts of the world.

There are signs that Mother Earth is breathing easy once again, perhaps for the first time in fifty years when the level of carbon and nitrogen dioxides rose rapidly due to wider use of fossil fuels to run the electric power plants, and to power the land and air transportation networks. Satellite data suggests that in these two short months, emission levels have reduced enormously.

This author clearly recalls a sky full of stars in the clear night skies of Lahore in 1960s. One could even see the US and Soviet satellites high up in space. Once could observe from a hill station the hazy band of white light that is our galaxy the Milky Way. Unfortunately, the pollution has taken its toll and our children are lucky if they see a clear horizon on any given day. There are reports that people in Jullundur, India, are seeing the 17,000-feet high peaks of the Dhauladar Range for the first time in a generation. This is the same city where for much of winter, the smog had concealed the sun and the visibility had dropped to near zero.

Several people that this author has spoken to in these weeks display a pleasant realization that human beings have few essential needs. Life is fine without eating out, long drives and frequent shopping. Even the stressful issue of having children, with one or both parents at home, is providing an opportunity for greater bonding within the family. Reading is once again becoming a favoured activity.

The virus will eventually be overcome. In addition to having a tough biology, humans are capable of finding solutions to complex problems. As people begin to go about their lives, the infections will rise and cause fatalities but there will be a vaccine, some protocols and many medicines that will rein in the virus. Eventually, life will continue in a normal world.

Parvez Mahmood retired as a Group Captain from PAF and is now a software engineer. He lives in Islamabad and writes on social and historical issues. He can be reached at parvezmahmood53@gmail.com