Donald Henry Rumsfeld was a US politician and government official who served as secretary of defence under the 38th US President Gerald Ford, from 1975-1977, and also under the 43rd US President George W. Bush, from 2001-2006. He was both the youngest as well as the eldest secretary of defence that the US has had. He died in 2021.
The US National Security Council comprises four people -- president, vice president, secretary of state and secretary of defence. The US people directly elect two out of these four -- president and vice president. The other two are nominated by the president and are approved by the Senate with a majority vote.
Therefore, it was no small honour for Rumsfeld to have served as both the youngest as well as the eldest secretary of defence.
During Donald Rumsfeld’s second stint, 9/11 happened, and along with the Twin Towers in Manhattan, New York, west side of the Pentagon was hit by the third plane, a Boeing 757, and 189 people perished in the building that was headed by Rumsfeld as secretary of defence. He survived the attack but came out as an angry and hurt bear.
Thereafter, Rumsfeld came up with the doctrine of “Knowns” and “Unknowns”, and it remained in vogue when war theatres in Afghanistan and Iraq were opened by the US in response to 9/11.
This doctrine of Knowns and Unknowns is quite relevant in present day Pakistan.
The doctrine of ‘Known Knowns’ means what we know and have complete information about its consequences. Like if I eat fatty foods with high contents of sodium, sugar and starch, then there is a high probability my weight would increase, unless there is a hormonal disorder. But the probability of having a hormonal disorder is one in a 10 million.
The ‘Known Unknowns’ also means what we know, feel and define but have no information about it. For instance, if take lots of salt, sugar and starch then your weight is bound to increase but will it also affect your blood pressure, diabetes, heart issues, will it cause depression or heart burn. Basically, you know that there would be a consequence but are unsure what it may be.
The ‘Unknown Knowns’ means things that you know but know nothing about it.
The ‘Unknown Unknowns’ are things you don’t know exist and have no information about how they respond or operate in case they exist.
Pakistan’s current political scene can easily be explained as ‘Unknowns and Unknowns’.
We know how the economy will respond to fluctuations in international fuel price; what will be the impact of tax; and what is the Commodity Super Cycle; and how to manage it. It is known and can be managed by the political team in place.
But the real mystery lies somewhere else. Who could have ever imagined that we would take a project like the CPEC to a screeching halt? Who could forget about the 12 to 18-hour loadshedding between 2008 and 2016. And after years of efforts and with a committed investment of USD52 billions from China, we were able to get rid of loadshedding and grow the GDP by six percent. Then the Kaptaan – the mother of all Unknowns – walked in. He could hardly win a seat in the 2002 elections and boycotted the 2008 elections, and now, no TV show is complete without his mention.
All Unknowns did their best to give him unbridled power in 2013. The same Unknowns gave him power in 2018. The Unknown power through Unknown means was used to gag the media and political opponents were thrown out of the arena.
Kaptaan was a bull in the china shop after 2018. When he was taken out through valid constitutional means and when the National Assembly speaker and deputy speaker and the president of Pakistan played havoc with the constitution to throw democracy out of the window, a loud roar in the jalsas was heard. All kinds of conspiracy theories have been spun, and believed, as if they are scriptures from heaven. Those Unknowns send shiver down the spine. What if kaptaan, with all his Unknowns, gets back into power, while the Takt-e-Lahore is given to the likes of “Bozo/Goggi and Co”.
The US National Security Council comprises four people -- president, vice president, secretary of state and secretary of defence. The US people directly elect two out of these four -- president and vice president. The other two are nominated by the president and are approved by the Senate with a majority vote.
Therefore, it was no small honour for Rumsfeld to have served as both the youngest as well as the eldest secretary of defence.
During Donald Rumsfeld’s second stint, 9/11 happened, and along with the Twin Towers in Manhattan, New York, west side of the Pentagon was hit by the third plane, a Boeing 757, and 189 people perished in the building that was headed by Rumsfeld as secretary of defence. He survived the attack but came out as an angry and hurt bear.
Thereafter, Rumsfeld came up with the doctrine of “Knowns” and “Unknowns”, and it remained in vogue when war theatres in Afghanistan and Iraq were opened by the US in response to 9/11.
This doctrine of Knowns and Unknowns is quite relevant in present day Pakistan.
The doctrine of ‘Known Knowns’ means what we know and have complete information about its consequences. Like if I eat fatty foods with high contents of sodium, sugar and starch, then there is a high probability my weight would increase, unless there is a hormonal disorder. But the probability of having a hormonal disorder is one in a 10 million.
The ‘Known Unknowns’ also means what we know, feel and define but have no information about it. For instance, if take lots of salt, sugar and starch then your weight is bound to increase but will it also affect your blood pressure, diabetes, heart issues, will it cause depression or heart burn. Basically, you know that there would be a consequence but are unsure what it may be.
The ‘Unknown Knowns’ means things that you know but know nothing about it.
The ‘Unknown Unknowns’ are things you don’t know exist and have no information about how they respond or operate in case they exist.
All Unknowns did their best to give him unbridled power in 2013. The same Unknowns gave him power in 2018. The Unknown power through Unknown means was used to gag the media and political opponents were thrown out of the arena.
Pakistan’s current political scene can easily be explained as ‘Unknowns and Unknowns’.
We know how the economy will respond to fluctuations in international fuel price; what will be the impact of tax; and what is the Commodity Super Cycle; and how to manage it. It is known and can be managed by the political team in place.
But the real mystery lies somewhere else. Who could have ever imagined that we would take a project like the CPEC to a screeching halt? Who could forget about the 12 to 18-hour loadshedding between 2008 and 2016. And after years of efforts and with a committed investment of USD52 billions from China, we were able to get rid of loadshedding and grow the GDP by six percent. Then the Kaptaan – the mother of all Unknowns – walked in. He could hardly win a seat in the 2002 elections and boycotted the 2008 elections, and now, no TV show is complete without his mention.
All Unknowns did their best to give him unbridled power in 2013. The same Unknowns gave him power in 2018. The Unknown power through Unknown means was used to gag the media and political opponents were thrown out of the arena.
Kaptaan was a bull in the china shop after 2018. When he was taken out through valid constitutional means and when the National Assembly speaker and deputy speaker and the president of Pakistan played havoc with the constitution to throw democracy out of the window, a loud roar in the jalsas was heard. All kinds of conspiracy theories have been spun, and believed, as if they are scriptures from heaven. Those Unknowns send shiver down the spine. What if kaptaan, with all his Unknowns, gets back into power, while the Takt-e-Lahore is given to the likes of “Bozo/Goggi and Co”.