At least one in five people worldwide are at risk of suffering from significant welfare losses due to extreme weather events from which recovery would be arduous. This has been stated by a new Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024 (PPPR) recently published by the World Bank and brought highly startling findings.
The PPPR is a major post-pandemic assessment aimed at understanding the trajectory of poverty reduction and prosperity enhancement in a world increasingly threatened by climate change. The report is designed to guide policymakers, governments, and international organisations in making informed decisions to balance economic growth, equity, and environmental sustainability.
The report notes that extreme weather events have increased in both frequency and severity, placing significant strain on poorer economies. The World Bank developed an indicator which tracks the number of people at high risk for climate-related hazards across the world, determining that nearly one in five people (18%) is at high risk from climate-related hazards globally, meaning that they are likely to experience a severe climate shock in their lifetime from which they are going to struggle to recover. The alarming statistic underscores the deep impact of climate change, which disproportionately affects the most vulnerable communities in the world. It offers an in-depth analysis of the pressing global challenges that intertwine with economic growth, inequality, and environmental sustainability.
PPPR highlights South Asia as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, with nearly 32% of the population of South Asia facing high risks from extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, cyclones and heat waves. These hazards are further intensified by dense population concentrations, inadequate infrastructure, and limited access to climate adaptation resources. Vulnerable communities in the region struggle to recover from extreme climate events due to insufficient financial and institutional support, making resilience-building a critical priority.
Unlike South Asia, where exposure is high due to population density, Sub-Saharan Africa's vulnerability stems from limited development, with over half its population lacking basic services such as electricity and sanitation. The report identifies Sub-Saharan Africa as a highly vulnerable region, with over a third of the population at risk from extreme weather impacts.
Air pollution a leading environmental challenge
The report highlights the escalating air pollution crisis as critical issues exacerbating health problems and causing economic strain. It said air pollution has emerged as one of the leading environmental health risks, accounting for substantial morbidity and mortality. Air pollution not only contributes to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases but also delays economic productivity.
In regions where smog is prevalent, the economic and social burdens are particularly severe, contributing to reduced life expectancy and increased public health costs. In 2019 alone, the global health impact of air pollution equated to 6.1% of the world's GDP, a figure that continues to rise as urbanisation and industrial activity accelerates.
The report said that the smog crisis in Pakistan, particularly in the Punjab province, has escalated into a major public health emergency. The air pollution levels have reached unprecedented highs, with particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations exceeding the World Health Organization's safety limits by over 100 times in cities like Lahore. This toxic smog has caused a surge in respiratory illnesses, with over 40,000 people seeking medical treatment, including many children. UNICEF has raised alarms about the severe impact on children, especially the 11 million under five in Punjab, who are at heightened risk. Long-term exposure to this toxic air is linked to respiratory diseases, cognitive impairments, and stunted growth. Already, approximately 12% of deaths in children under five are attributed to air pollution.
PPPR calls for global cooperation and urgent action, as without it, both poverty reduction and climate resilience efforts may remain out of reach. The World Bank sheds light on the urgent and interconnected challenges that the world faces amid what is termed a "polycrisis", a combination of economic stagnation, mounting debt, geopolitical conflicts, and climate emergency. Nearly one in five people globally are at risk of suffering welfare losses due to extreme weather events from which recovery will be difficult. This stark reality underscores how climate change is not just an environmental issue but a profound threat to human welfare, particularly in low-income and fragile regions.
GHG emissions and disparities
At COP29, being held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22, 2024, the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a major agenda item. Leaders and negotiators from nearly every country are focused on scaling up commitments to limit global warming to 1.5°C, a goal critical for averting climate catastrophe.
So far, COP29 highlights the critical need for increased climate finance to help low and middle-income countries transition to greener economies. This includes technology transfers to reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate impacts. But apart from all promises, experts and activists say all these ambitions and promises are empty.
The Dubai Talks during COP28 agreed to "transition away" from coal, oil and gas, and the discussion in COP29 addressed the same. However, the climate activists have not agreed with the promises.
The PPPR said there has been record levels of GHG emissions, which have risen by nearly 50% since 1990. This alarming trend is linked directly to the increased heat release in the atmosphere, exacerbating climate conditions and contributing to more frequent natural disasters. Although these efforts have made economic activity less emissions-intensive over the past two decades, this shift has been uneven across regions. Wealthier nations are responsible for four-fifths of global emissions, yet the consequences of these emissions disproportionately affect the most impoverished countries. While high-income and upper-middle-income countries are projected to make gradual progress in reducing emissions, current policies are insufficient to meet global climate targets. On the other hand, the poorest nations contribute minimally to GHG emissions but bear the brunt of climate impacts. International Development Association (IDA) countries are among the most vulnerable. These countries, typically with limited financial resources and fragile institutions, have seen little progress in shielding their populations from extreme weather events. The report underscores that less than 50% of people in these nations are protected from climate hazards, contrasting sharply with non-IDA countries that have made significant advancements due to wealth and better access to climate adaptation technologies.
The report says poverty reduction becomes even more challenging without adequate protection from climate hazards. The report's projections indicate that global poverty will persist at levels far above the World Bank's 3% target without drastic changes until at least 2050. For middle-income nations, the outlook is similarly scary; economic growth alone will not be enough unless it is tied to concerted efforts to lower emissions and mitigate climate risks.
A call for differentiated approaches
The PPPR advocates for tailored policy solutions that align with each country's unique circumstances. For low-income and fragile nations, the emphasis should be on fostering economic growth through investments in human capital, basic infrastructure, and financial systems. However, this growth must be managed to avoid entrenching carbon-intensive practices that could become unsustainable as climate regulations tighten.
Report highlight that middle-income countries, on the other hand, need to focus on policies that promote income growth while simultaneously reducing vulnerability. Strategies such as investing in clean technologies, enhancing social safety nets, and tackling air pollution can yield benefits for both the economy and the environment. For high-income countries, the imperative is clear: accelerate the transition to low-carbon economies while managing the associated social and economic disruptions. The report recommended that policymakers must recognise the trade-offs between economic growth and climate action, finding synergies to advance both goals. Measures that reduce emissions while bolstering economic resilience, such as green energy initiatives, are crucial. Addressing climate change requires global solidarity. Wealthier nations should assist poorer countries with technology transfers, financial support, and capacity-building to foster sustainable development and climate adaptation. Robust data collection is vital for monitoring progress and designing targeted interventions. The report stresses the need for more investment in national statistical systems and innovative modelling to improve welfare analysis.