Pakistan’s foreign relations saw many ups and downs in 2015, but the year is ending on a high note, with a promise of better 2016 for the country and the region.
The highlights of the year included progress in relations with Afghanistan and India, ties with China becoming more strategic, the launch of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the Pakistan-US relationship remaining on an even keel despite continuing challenges, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization opening its doors to Pakistan. The Heart of Asia conference – a high profile multilateral event in Islamabad in which foreign ministers of all of Pakistan’s immediate neighbors participated – underscored the importance that the country has in the region.
“The recent weeks saw significant developments in the regional outlook for peace and development,” says former foreign secretary Salman Bashir. He was referring to the likely resumption of Pakistan-India bilateral dialogue and the reconciliation talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban that would be facilitated by Pakistan, US and China. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s participation in the groundbreaking of the TAPI gas pipeline and the SCO conference in China reflects the priority Pakistan has attached to regional cooperation and its potential dividends, he added.
Ambassador Masood Khan, director general of the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad, says the improvement in bilateral relations with Afghanistan and India are a vindication of Pakistan’s stance and a moral victory for its foreign policy.
But regardless of the positivity generated by these developments, most of which happened in December, there are questions whether the upward swing will continue. The concerns are rooted partly in underlying realities and emerging challenges. A lot would depend on how the resumption of dialogue with India and Afghanistan’s reconciliation process pans out from here. Pakistan’s hasty decision to join the Saudi led ‘counter-terrorism’ coalition and issues with the implementation of its ‘Readmission Agreement’ with the European Union would be the two immediate challenges of 2016.
Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi, executive director of the Center for International Strategic Studies, counsels caution. “The regional outlook seems to have improved for Pakistan, but it is too early to say that the recent developments presage a real upturn,” he says. “Our regional dynamic is very fluid and we have to tread carefully.”
Dialogue with India:
Bilateral dialogue with India had been suspended since January 2014, and mutual relations became particularly tense after the BJP came to power in India, and adopted a tougher line towards Pakistan. There were several attempts at starting a process of normalization. The first of such moves came as PM Sharif travelled to New Delhi in May 2014 to attend Narendra Modi’s inauguration. A meeting between the two foreign secretaries to explore the way forward was agreed on, but could not materialize. Then the two leaders went to Kathmandu for the SAARC Summit in November 2014, where a reported secret meeting led to Indian Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad in March 2015. It was said to be part of his ‘SAARC Yatra’. The release on bail of the principal suspect in the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks, Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, during his trial in Pakistan in April derailed the initiative. Then came the SCO summit in Ufa in July, where both India and Pakistan were invited to join the organization. Sharif and Modi met at the sidelines and agreed on a re-engagement starting with a meeting between their national security advisers to discuss the threat of terrorism. The meeting was cancelled because of deep-rooted policy irritants. The latest attempt at a rapprochement came when a meeting between Indian and Pakistani premiers took place on the sidelines of Climate Change Summit in Paris. It was followed by a meeting of their national security advisers in Bangkok and Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj’s trip to Islamabad to attend the Heart of Asia meeting.
The engagement that began in Paris has progressed well so far and resulted in an agreement on resuming a ‘comprehensive bilateral dialogue’. The resumed process, whose modalities will be finalized in a meeting of the two foreign secretaries scheduled in January, is linked to progress in the Mumbai attacks trial taking place in Pakistan. Prima facie, from the wording of the joint statement, it looks like Pakistan has finally agreed with India’s position that a closure of the Mumbai issue is essential for moving forward.
Ambassador (r) Aziz Ahmad Khan, the honorary vice president of the Jinnah Institute, does not see a major change in Pakistan’s India policy. “Pakistan has not given anything new on the Mumbai trial,” he says. “The trial is on and Pakistan has throughout taken the position that the perpetrators will be punished.”
“I believe if at all any concessions were given, they were meant to start dialogue, but there can’t be any compromise on substance,” says Ambassador Masood Khan.
While agreeing on expediting the Mumbai attacks trial, Pakistan did not make any demands relating to the trial of the Samjhota Express bombing. There are also apprehensions about the specific use of the word ‘bilateral’ in the new name for the talks. The much flaunted dossiers on Indian hand in terrorism in Pakistan have been lost somewhere.
In former foreign secretary Shamshad Ahmed Khan’s view, “The unfreezing of the India-Pakistan dialogue was undoubtedly a welcome development for the two neighbors, at least to have come out of their bizarre straitjacket mode, mostly looking in the opposite direction while crying hoarse at each other. But, given their troubled history, there is no room for any kind of euphoria or over-optimism. It’s a deja vu scenario. It seems that another Ufa has been played on Nawaz Sharif.”
“We should have tried to extract similar language on the horrendous Samjhota Express terrorist attack that predates Mumbai. The alleged mastermind of the attack - Swamy Aseemanad - has been let out,” Ambassador Masood Khan says. “But probably that was not diplomatically feasible.”
Afghan Reconciliation:
The Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship also saw some peaks and valleys in 2015. The year began on a high note with Afghanistan initiating action against sanctuaries of Pakistani Taliban on its territory, and army chief Gen Raheel Sharif travelling to Kabul in February to convey Taliban’s willingness to hold talks. The start of Taliban’s spring offensive dented that goodwill, but a visit by PM Sharif and Gen Sharif to Kabul in May helped salvage some of it. An intelligence cooperation between NDS and ISI stirred a major controversy leaving the unprecedented agreement a dead document. But it was soon followed by another high point, with the start of reconciliation talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban that Pakistan hosted in Murree. Weeks later, the disclosure that their leader Mullah Omar was dead led to a suspension of the dialogue. A bitter succession dispute ensured in the Taliban ranks, and was accompanied by a surge in militant violence. Ties between Islamabad and Kabul worsened as violence continued.
Gen Sharif’s visit to US in November helped reach an agreement on reviving the reconciliation process, while a meeting between Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and PM Sharif in Paris paved the way for Ghani’s participation in the Heart of Asia conference. On the sidelines of the conference, Pakistan, the US, China and Afghanistan agreed on a quadrilateral mechanism for reviving the Afghan peace process. Gen Sharif is expected to visit Kabul in the last week of December, and the operational details will be finalized in a quadrilateral meeting. If things go as planned, the process could start sometime in January. A diplomatic source said eyes were on achieving a breakthrough before spring.
“On Afghanistan, we see a positive momentum. Main actors have come around to restarting the suspended peace dialogue,” Amb Masood Khan says.
“Whether one likes it or not, Pakistan’s geopolitics makes it an unrivalled player in the whole process for genuine Afghan peace,” Shamshad Ahmed Khan says. “It would help our interests if these rivalries are contained through a regional or international arrangement or understanding,” he says. “This would require a precisely negotiated guarantee of Afghanistan’s ‘nonalignment’, including positive and negative security assurances backed by the UN Security Council. It is in this area that the Heart of Asia grouping can play a meaningful role.”
Middle East Policy:
Developments in Middle East have been posing a major challenge to Pakistan’s foreign policy. In the first quarter, Pakistan successfully avoided Saudi pressure for sending its troops to the war in Yemen. A parliament resolution insisting on neutrality in Middle Eastern politics played a major role in the decision. But, before the year was out, Saudi Arabia sprung another surprise. It announced another coalition, this time to fight terrorism, and included Pakistan in it without any prior consultations.
This time, the government was quick to announce that it will in fact be part of the alliance, without even waiting for any details about the coalition, which the Foreign Office said it had sought.
Ambassador Masood Khan does not look at the announcement as a major departure from Islamabad’s policy of neutrality. “Pakistan is fully aware of the sensitivities of the sectarian fault lines running through Muslim polities. We would therefore maintain equidistant relations with countries of the region and focus on promoting good ties amongst them under the umbrella of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and bilaterally,” he said.
Iran’s nuclear deal with the West has brought its own challenges for Pakistan. Islamabad has so far been avoiding any engagement with Tehran on the pretext of its international status of an outsider, and sanctions. With those curbs all set to be removed, it would become increasingly difficult for Pakistan to conceal the Saudi influence that has been preventing it from getting closer to Iran. Tehran has made several overtures in the last eight months. Most of them did not receive a response from Islamabad.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is meanwhile being described as a game changer. If successfully implemented, the project could strategically elevate Pakistan’s standing in the region.
The writer is a freelance journalist based in Islamabad
Email: mamoonarubab@gmail.com
Twitter: @bokhari_mr
The highlights of the year included progress in relations with Afghanistan and India, ties with China becoming more strategic, the launch of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the Pakistan-US relationship remaining on an even keel despite continuing challenges, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization opening its doors to Pakistan. The Heart of Asia conference – a high profile multilateral event in Islamabad in which foreign ministers of all of Pakistan’s immediate neighbors participated – underscored the importance that the country has in the region.
“The recent weeks saw significant developments in the regional outlook for peace and development,” says former foreign secretary Salman Bashir. He was referring to the likely resumption of Pakistan-India bilateral dialogue and the reconciliation talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban that would be facilitated by Pakistan, US and China. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s participation in the groundbreaking of the TAPI gas pipeline and the SCO conference in China reflects the priority Pakistan has attached to regional cooperation and its potential dividends, he added.
Ambassador Masood Khan, director general of the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad, says the improvement in bilateral relations with Afghanistan and India are a vindication of Pakistan’s stance and a moral victory for its foreign policy.
But regardless of the positivity generated by these developments, most of which happened in December, there are questions whether the upward swing will continue. The concerns are rooted partly in underlying realities and emerging challenges. A lot would depend on how the resumption of dialogue with India and Afghanistan’s reconciliation process pans out from here. Pakistan’s hasty decision to join the Saudi led ‘counter-terrorism’ coalition and issues with the implementation of its ‘Readmission Agreement’ with the European Union would be the two immediate challenges of 2016.
Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi, executive director of the Center for International Strategic Studies, counsels caution. “The regional outlook seems to have improved for Pakistan, but it is too early to say that the recent developments presage a real upturn,” he says. “Our regional dynamic is very fluid and we have to tread carefully.”
"Another Ufa has been played on Nawaz Sharif"
Dialogue with India:
Bilateral dialogue with India had been suspended since January 2014, and mutual relations became particularly tense after the BJP came to power in India, and adopted a tougher line towards Pakistan. There were several attempts at starting a process of normalization. The first of such moves came as PM Sharif travelled to New Delhi in May 2014 to attend Narendra Modi’s inauguration. A meeting between the two foreign secretaries to explore the way forward was agreed on, but could not materialize. Then the two leaders went to Kathmandu for the SAARC Summit in November 2014, where a reported secret meeting led to Indian Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad in March 2015. It was said to be part of his ‘SAARC Yatra’. The release on bail of the principal suspect in the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks, Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, during his trial in Pakistan in April derailed the initiative. Then came the SCO summit in Ufa in July, where both India and Pakistan were invited to join the organization. Sharif and Modi met at the sidelines and agreed on a re-engagement starting with a meeting between their national security advisers to discuss the threat of terrorism. The meeting was cancelled because of deep-rooted policy irritants. The latest attempt at a rapprochement came when a meeting between Indian and Pakistani premiers took place on the sidelines of Climate Change Summit in Paris. It was followed by a meeting of their national security advisers in Bangkok and Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj’s trip to Islamabad to attend the Heart of Asia meeting.
The engagement that began in Paris has progressed well so far and resulted in an agreement on resuming a ‘comprehensive bilateral dialogue’. The resumed process, whose modalities will be finalized in a meeting of the two foreign secretaries scheduled in January, is linked to progress in the Mumbai attacks trial taking place in Pakistan. Prima facie, from the wording of the joint statement, it looks like Pakistan has finally agreed with India’s position that a closure of the Mumbai issue is essential for moving forward.
Ambassador (r) Aziz Ahmad Khan, the honorary vice president of the Jinnah Institute, does not see a major change in Pakistan’s India policy. “Pakistan has not given anything new on the Mumbai trial,” he says. “The trial is on and Pakistan has throughout taken the position that the perpetrators will be punished.”
“I believe if at all any concessions were given, they were meant to start dialogue, but there can’t be any compromise on substance,” says Ambassador Masood Khan.
While agreeing on expediting the Mumbai attacks trial, Pakistan did not make any demands relating to the trial of the Samjhota Express bombing. There are also apprehensions about the specific use of the word ‘bilateral’ in the new name for the talks. The much flaunted dossiers on Indian hand in terrorism in Pakistan have been lost somewhere.
In former foreign secretary Shamshad Ahmed Khan’s view, “The unfreezing of the India-Pakistan dialogue was undoubtedly a welcome development for the two neighbors, at least to have come out of their bizarre straitjacket mode, mostly looking in the opposite direction while crying hoarse at each other. But, given their troubled history, there is no room for any kind of euphoria or over-optimism. It’s a deja vu scenario. It seems that another Ufa has been played on Nawaz Sharif.”
“We should have tried to extract similar language on the horrendous Samjhota Express terrorist attack that predates Mumbai. The alleged mastermind of the attack - Swamy Aseemanad - has been let out,” Ambassador Masood Khan says. “But probably that was not diplomatically feasible.”
Afghan Reconciliation:
The Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship also saw some peaks and valleys in 2015. The year began on a high note with Afghanistan initiating action against sanctuaries of Pakistani Taliban on its territory, and army chief Gen Raheel Sharif travelling to Kabul in February to convey Taliban’s willingness to hold talks. The start of Taliban’s spring offensive dented that goodwill, but a visit by PM Sharif and Gen Sharif to Kabul in May helped salvage some of it. An intelligence cooperation between NDS and ISI stirred a major controversy leaving the unprecedented agreement a dead document. But it was soon followed by another high point, with the start of reconciliation talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban that Pakistan hosted in Murree. Weeks later, the disclosure that their leader Mullah Omar was dead led to a suspension of the dialogue. A bitter succession dispute ensured in the Taliban ranks, and was accompanied by a surge in militant violence. Ties between Islamabad and Kabul worsened as violence continued.
Gen Sharif’s visit to US in November helped reach an agreement on reviving the reconciliation process, while a meeting between Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and PM Sharif in Paris paved the way for Ghani’s participation in the Heart of Asia conference. On the sidelines of the conference, Pakistan, the US, China and Afghanistan agreed on a quadrilateral mechanism for reviving the Afghan peace process. Gen Sharif is expected to visit Kabul in the last week of December, and the operational details will be finalized in a quadrilateral meeting. If things go as planned, the process could start sometime in January. A diplomatic source said eyes were on achieving a breakthrough before spring.
“On Afghanistan, we see a positive momentum. Main actors have come around to restarting the suspended peace dialogue,” Amb Masood Khan says.
“Whether one likes it or not, Pakistan’s geopolitics makes it an unrivalled player in the whole process for genuine Afghan peace,” Shamshad Ahmed Khan says. “It would help our interests if these rivalries are contained through a regional or international arrangement or understanding,” he says. “This would require a precisely negotiated guarantee of Afghanistan’s ‘nonalignment’, including positive and negative security assurances backed by the UN Security Council. It is in this area that the Heart of Asia grouping can play a meaningful role.”
It will become difficult to conceal the Saudi influence
Middle East Policy:
Developments in Middle East have been posing a major challenge to Pakistan’s foreign policy. In the first quarter, Pakistan successfully avoided Saudi pressure for sending its troops to the war in Yemen. A parliament resolution insisting on neutrality in Middle Eastern politics played a major role in the decision. But, before the year was out, Saudi Arabia sprung another surprise. It announced another coalition, this time to fight terrorism, and included Pakistan in it without any prior consultations.
This time, the government was quick to announce that it will in fact be part of the alliance, without even waiting for any details about the coalition, which the Foreign Office said it had sought.
Ambassador Masood Khan does not look at the announcement as a major departure from Islamabad’s policy of neutrality. “Pakistan is fully aware of the sensitivities of the sectarian fault lines running through Muslim polities. We would therefore maintain equidistant relations with countries of the region and focus on promoting good ties amongst them under the umbrella of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and bilaterally,” he said.
Iran’s nuclear deal with the West has brought its own challenges for Pakistan. Islamabad has so far been avoiding any engagement with Tehran on the pretext of its international status of an outsider, and sanctions. With those curbs all set to be removed, it would become increasingly difficult for Pakistan to conceal the Saudi influence that has been preventing it from getting closer to Iran. Tehran has made several overtures in the last eight months. Most of them did not receive a response from Islamabad.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is meanwhile being described as a game changer. If successfully implemented, the project could strategically elevate Pakistan’s standing in the region.
The writer is a freelance journalist based in Islamabad
Email: mamoonarubab@gmail.com
Twitter: @bokhari_mr