The road to Delhi, it is famously believed in India, runs via Lucknow, the capital of the country's largest province. Uttar Pradesh (UP) is right in the heart of India and sends 80 members to the Parliament – the most from any of the 36 provinces and union territories. Both the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress have finalized their alliances, and also some of their candidates, for the 2024 mega contest.
On Wednesday, Congress’ INDIA coalition settled for a seat-sharing formula with the Samajwadi Party, the most prominent regional outfit headed by Akhlilesh Yadav, whose famous socialist-subaltern father Mulayam Singh Yadav had founded the party. It commands an unshakeable sway over the majority of minority Muslim and backward caste Yadav votes. According to the alliance formula, the SP will contest 61 seats, leaving 17 to Congress, with two seats being undecided.
The Congress will also field a candidate, who is yet to be announced, against Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the historic and holy city of Varanasi.
In another high-profile face-off in Rae Bareli, near Lucknow, Priyanka Gandhi, daughter of Congress matriarch Sonia Gandhi and sister of its star leader Rahul Gandhi, is slated to make her debut in electoral politics. Rae Bareli is a pocket-borough of Gandhi family and the party has been winning the seat since the time of Pandit Nehru, the first PM of India, who had fielded his son-in-law Feroze Gandhi, husband of India’s first woman PM Indira Gandhi, in India’s second general election in 1957.
In another high-profile face-off in Rae Bareli, near Lucknow, Priyanka Gandhi, daughter of Congress matriarch Sonia Gandhi and sister of its star leader Rahul Gandhi, is slated to make her debut in electoral politics.
The SP-Congress alliance coincides with the entry of Rahul Gandhi’s pan-India Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra (India Unity and Justice March) into UP to reinvigorate party cadres. Meanwhile, the BJP has already fortified its fort by a massive and meticulous party organization rejig, and now it will start announcing most already-decided and some surprise names to run for the 18th Lok Sabha polls.
How the Congress-led INDIA alliance and BJP-shepherded National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition stand to wrest UP can be gauged through the following.
Chances of BJP-led NDA
The National Democratic Alliance led by the ruling BJP is presently run by Amit Shah, senior BJP leader, Home Minister of India and considered to be the Number 2 in the party after Modi. Originally formed in 1998 under the leadership of former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the NDA currently consists of 38 various political parties from across India. In UP, the NDA has Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), Apna Dal (Sonelal), Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party and NISHAD Party.
Apna Dal represents the Kurmi backward caste, which is most socially and educationally developed among all backward castes in UP. SBSP and NISHAD party similarly represent backward castes and are largely supportive parties that trade votes from their social sections with any of the mainstream parties. All these three parties are considered key cogs of social and electoral engineering, especially in the Eastern UP.
The NDA (or BJP) alliance with RLD made headlines, and is being viewed with curiosity by observers of UP politics.
Overall, the NDA’s target voters include Upper Caste (Brahmins, Thakur, Bania, Jats), non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits. They make up around 60% of the state’s population and, regardless of the Jatavs being included or excluded, may lead to victory margins in more than 70 seats comfortably.
The NDA (or BJP) alliance with RLD made headlines, and is being viewed with curiosity by observers of UP politics. The RLD, established by former PM and ace Jat-peasant leader Chaudhary Charan Singh, wields influence in the Jat-peasant heartland of the West UP that borders Haryana.
The BJP and RLD have struck a deal when farmers are leading a major agitation on the borders of Delhi with Haryana and Punjab, demanding among other things, the guarantee on the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for their yields. Till the writing of this article, no solution was in sight and three rounds of talks between farmers and the government had already ended inconclusively. Instead, there were reports of clashes between the police and farmers, resulting in the death of a youth. The federal capital New Delhi is witnessing heavy traffic jams because of roadblocks on its borders.
The deadlock, if it continues or worsens, will certainly mar BJP’s poll prospects.
Both the BJP and RLD aim to reap political dividends through opportunistic alliances. The RLD, under the leadership of Charan Singh’s grandson Jayant Singh, has been scurrying to reclaim its stronghold over the Jats since it lost them post-2013 Muzaffarnagar riots to the BJP. It has perhaps agreed to sacrifice its Muslim votes (if they desert the party) to form a winning combination in the region and eye one Rajya Sabha berth and a possible cabinet post in the state BJP government.
However, as young journalist Nisar Siddiqui observes, the move will backfire. “Jats have no doubt been strong supporters of the BJP post-2013 riots. However, a lot of water has flown down the canals of the sugar bowl (a moniker used for Jat-dominated West UP areas because of the annual sugar cane crop and presence of sugar mills). The farmer agitation was led by a prominent Jat of the area – Narendra Singh Tikait, although he is though now conspicuously absent from the scene.
The Modi government’s myriad of promises has remained unfulfilled. Jat youth, like all majority of unemployed lot in the country, are peeved that their woes are only mounting. And, remember that the Jats assert their anger, as is colloquially known in the region, with a “thud of lath – very assertively,” said Nisar, adding that SP-Congress combine is fielding a number of Jat candidates and others who will prove an equal match to NDA picks, if not more. “Many of them will be through,” said Nisar, emphasizing his own assertion.
The Friday Times called Shahid Siddiqui, former MP, a prominent Muslim politician-commentator, and editor of once hugely popular Urdu weekly Nai Duniya, and now member of the RLD, for his comment. He chose not to speak. However, a journalist pursuing meetings and the moves of politicians in the run up to the poll said that Mr. Siddiqui will campaign for his party even in the Muslim areas despite its alliance with the BJP. “He might be in contention for the lone Rajya Sabha seat that the RLD may be allotted after elections,” he said.
The Modi government’s myriad of promises has remained unfulfilled. Jat youth, like all majority of unemployed lot in the country, are peeved that their woes are only mounting.
Some RLD and BJP leaders, when contacted to comment on the benefits of their alliance and repercussions in the case that the agitating farmers dig in their heels for long, they refused to comment officially. Off record, some BJP functionaries said that the party was opening “routes” to farmers’ leadership and trying to offer the “maximum” to dissolve the stand-off. They also admitted that the party was aware of the “cost” that the agitation might incur, not only in the Jat belt, in UP but throughout India as peasant protests have been sporadically taking place in almost all provinces of the country.
One of them, a senior functionary, said that the agitation would soon come to an end, hinting that PM Modi might intervene in a similar way as he did last time when he had announced that his government would scrap three farm laws against whom farmers had protested for months on the borders of Delhi.
Apart from such planned or dexterous maneuvering on the BJP’s part, some political pundits say that the party is well-placed in UP as it was at the time of 2014 elections. In the 2014 elections, the BJP and its ally Apna Dal, bagged 73 UP seats. The other seven were won by Yadavs (5 won by Mulayam Singh Yadav clan) and two by Gandhis (Rahul and Sonia).
“The challengers to NDA this time are SP-Congress. They have no voter base, except the Yadavs (7-9% of state voters) and Muslims (18-20%). They are scattered in a way that there are only countable seats where they can win with their combination. No other social group seems interested in this coalition, at least at this moment. In my estimate, this coalition will win only two seats – Mainpuri (a Yadav family-borough and last time won by Mulayam Singh Yadav) and Rae Bareli (Gandhi family bastion and last time won by Sonia Gandhi). Elsewhere, they are on an extremely shaky wicket,” said Kubool Qureshi, a political analyst with a leading Hindi news channel.
Qureshi added that while other parties woke up to weaving poll alliances and deploying their cadres on the ground only in recent weeks, the BJP had started its preparations months ago, giving the party an edge over all others. He added that the BJP has cleverly focused on those seats that it had lost in 2019 and appointed party functionaries like district-wise presidents and block in-charges by September 2023 itself.
There are 14 seats that the NDA had failed to grab in the last elections.
Ram Sharan Joshi, a veteran Hindi journalist-author, agrees with Qureshi that the BJP is running its election machinery more effectively than any other party. Joshi, who has been covering and writing on elections in the Hindi-speaking provinces of India for over 50 years, said that the BJP, even though vulnerable on numerous fronts, is using all its cards well. “BJP’s methods even include ‘soft-fascist’ techniques of arm-twisting opponents through ED, CBI raids with precise timing to manoeuvre the electoral outcome,” he added.
However, besides using emotional issues, the BJP is flaunting its governance record to woo the youth, women and rural folks. According to some election perception seekers active on the ground, there are several takers for that in the electorate.
Ram Sharan Joshi, a veteran Hindi journalist-author, agrees with Qureshi that the BJP is running its election machinery more effectively than any other party.
“Several government schemes have notably benefited rural populations, including Muslims. In fact, the BJP is reaching out to voters saying that its policies are caste and religion neutral. They are working for all sections,” said an academic from Amroha, who is keenly following pre-election scenarios in North-Central India.
One of the major BJP achievements of its 10-year-rule, that it is proudly boasting, is the construction of toilets in rural areas. The BJP claims to have made around 60-70% of India Open Defecation Free (ODF).
According to government reports, UP alone has achieved 100% Open Defecation Free (ODF) status, with all 95,767 villages in the state declared ODF plus (toilets and additional facilities) with Solid/Liquid Waste Management Systems. Additionally, UP has the highest number of beneficiaries under the Ayushman Bharat scheme, the flagship healthcare program, with 74 million individuals benefiting, including Muslims.
Moreover, more than 100 million beneficiaries have benefitted from the Ujjwala scheme nationwide. In UP, under the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana-Gramin, 3,614,882 homes have been sanctioned, out of which 3,518,249 have been completed. At the national level, 29,486,276 homes have been sanctioned, with 25,682,660 completed. Furthermore, the Ujjwala scheme has released a total of 102,228,333 connections under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, including 22,371,674 connections released under Ujjwala 2.0 as of February 15, 2024.
These initiatives, according to Amroha academics, demonstrate that the BJP’s governance track record clubbed with other tactics will play a pivotal role in the 2024 polls. But Nisar Siddiqui, another acute observer and analyst, and active election time traveler, writes that “anti-incumbency” is written in bold letters in every locality of UP. “You can also see it written on the worried foreheads of the BJP leadership,” he said.
Position of Congress-led Opposition
Till late Tuesday evening, the only word that defined the Congress-led opposition alliance was “fractured.” It was crumbling on a daily basis, and it may continue to do so till the code of conduct comes into practice. However, as the SP-Congress stitched a poll-partnership deal after a careful bargaining of seats, the buzz has shifted from total desperation to hopes for the opposition. Now, pundits weigh its probability of success some notches higher.
First, let’s see where this INDIA alliance has the best of its chances. As mentioned above, two seats – Mainpuri and Rae Bareli – are almost safe. Then, the alliance, like the NDA, has the best chances in the West UP – the region where a combination of Muslims, Yadavs, some Dalits, some OBCs, and some Upper Castes can see it through on several seats.
“The Kisan Andolan (farmer agitation) is creating ripples in the country, and the BJP government is avoiding any clear answer to the woes of farmers. It has veered Jat peasants away from the BJP and they will surely back INDIA,” said Afzal.
In the previous election in 2019, the alliance of SP-BSP-RLD had won seats like Saharanpur, Nagina, Bijnor, Amroha, Sambhal, Moradabad and Rampur (won by BJP in bypolls later). However, both the RLD and BSP, with fixed Jat and Jatav votes, have parted ways. Still, the alliance hopes for good performance as these seats have a solid Muslim voter presence and if their votes are supported by sections like Yadavs, Dalits and others, it will be sufficient to take the alliance to the victory margin.
It is from this premise of hopeful enthusiasm, Meem Afzal, a senior Congress leader and national spokesperson of his party, told The Friday Times that the INDIA stands to reap beyond the stated Muslim-Yadav votes in UP. “See, the Congress is backing the call for a caste census, unlike BJP, so that there could be exact statistics to devise welfare programs from those left behind in the development index. Among these disadvantaged groups are most of the backward castes, Scheduled Castes (Dalits) and Scheduled Tribes (Tribals). This Congress’ caste census call will surely resonate among these groups,” he said, adding that the split of RLD from INDIA only meant that the BJP alliance’s confidence is dwindling.
“The Kisan Andolan (farmer agitation) is creating ripples in the country, and the BJP government is avoiding any clear answer to the woes of farmers. It has veered Jat peasants away from the BJP and they will surely back INDIA,” said Afzal.
But Kubool Qureshi debunks this confidence of INDIA. He says that in 2019, the SP was in coalition with the BSP and the RLD, and mostly the combination that worked in that alliance’s favor was Muslim and Dalits.
“In 2019, SP and BSP won 5 and 10 seats respectively. You can check studies conducted on caste or community wise polling. The Dalits of BSP, Jatavs, had voted almost en masse for the alliance, or Mahagathbandhan as it was called. So, did Muslims. But not all Yadavs voted for the alliance and that’s why the SP lost the Kannauj seat contested by Akhilesh Yadav’s wife Dimple Yadav, the Badaun seat contested by Akhilesh’s cousin Dharmendra Yadav, the Firozabad seat contested by Akhilesh Yadav’s cousin Akshay Yadav, and later the Azamgarh seat in a bypoll, initially won by Akhilesh himself. It was a seismic shift indicating that the BJP has cultivated a devoted following of Yadavs. Many of its party workers in the areas mentioned above are Yadavs. Besides, there is no other social section apart from Muslims and Yadavs that seem ready to vote for INDIA. BSP’s Dalits are most likely to support BJP candidates, if they will not vote for the BSP candidates,” said Qureshi.
Qureshi, however, had told these writers a few days back that Congress is gaining the confidence of voters back in UP and that’s why Rahul Gandhi has remapped his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra to wade through crucial areas in West UP. Rahul has in fact decided to tour West UP constituencies like Amroha, Sambhal, Moradabad, Rampur, etc.
Will it drum up support for INDIA? An observer from Sambhal said “unlikely,” as when PM Narendra Modi inaugurated a big temple, actually a dham (a sacred place bigger than temple) – Kalki Dhaam, devoted to the awaited avatar of Lord Vishnu that some believe will appear in Kalyug, the present age – it reinvigorated religious fervor in all Upper Caste and Lower Caste sections in the region. Interestingly, this dham is run by just suspended popular Congress leader, Pramod Tyagi or Acharya Pramod Krishnam.
Some locals say that Krishnam could be made a candidate from Sambhal against the ailing incumbent MP of SP, Dr. Shafiqur Rehman Barq. Barq happens to be the oldest sitting MP of India and a known Muslim face. Meanwhile, some others hint at a more popular contest and rumors have it that the BJP may field cricketer Mohammed Shami, a local of the area, from Sambhal, Moradabad or Amroha.
If it happens, whichever way the electoral ball may swing, the 2024 polls will make UP the province to watch out for.