Alfred Thayer Mahan, a US naval strategist, said, “Whoever controls the Indian Ocean will dominate Asia, the destiny of the world will be decided on its waters.” True to Mahan’s words, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has evolved into a hotbed of great power competition due to growing economic, security, and geopolitical interests. With India, China, and the US contesting for influence, Pakistan navigates a complex web of strategic choices as a major Indian Ocean littoral state.
The IOR is bounded by three regions and is the third largest oceanic division covering nearly 20 percent of the global ocean. It hosts vital sea lines of communications (SLOCs) comprising the Strait of Hormuz, the Malacca Strait, Bab al-Mandeb, and the Suez Canal. It is a major artery for global trade since the region handles more than one-third of trade in bulk freight along with two-thirds of the world’s oil exports. IOR possesses plentiful natural resources including around 35 percent of gas and 65 percent of global known oil reserves. This has made it a significant arena for economic as well as geopolitical power plays, which are likely to augment in the coming years.
As a result of the expanding geo-political and geo-economic imperatives of India, China, and the US, accounting for almost half of the global economy, the IOR is experiencing a paradigm shift. Due to their geopolitical and economic rivalry, IOR has turned into a novel avenue for the US-China power struggle. To determine their respective roles in the tug for dominance, each country has a distinct geo-strategic perspective and economic plans for its future roles in the region.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of China, presumed to be an instrument of control and influence by the West and its allies, is altering the global economic landscape by investing in trade routes, connecting facilities, and trade routes across regions. This has also impacted the fluid balance of power in IOR. To counter China’s expanding economic footprint and secure its vested political and economic interests to maintain its influence, the US has consistently prioritised this region. This has been demonstrated by President Obama’s Pivot to Asia policy, President Biden’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) launched in 2022, as well as President Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy, which is anticipated to increase further during his second term.
By tapping the unexplored potential of its 290,000 square kilometers Continental Shelf and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), the country can access critical resources and support economic activity in areas like oil and gas exploration, fisheries, and marine research
Furthermore, the US views India as a strategic offset for China, and therefore, provides India with economic, military, and technological support stemming from their shared interests, China’s economic rise being the primary one. Additionally, through investments in the International North-South Transport Corridor and Iran’s Chabahar, India aims to expand its economic ambitions and establish its supremacy in the IOR.
Altogether this not only affects the regional maritime balance but also puts China-Pakistan’s mutual interests in jeopardy, with regards to BRI in general and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in particular. China and Pakistan are working together on the game-changing CPEC to achieve economic goals and preserve the balance of power. CPEC is expected to elevate Pakistan’s GDP by 2-3 percent, with Gwadar being the impetus. As a point of convergence for the BRI’s land and maritime networks, this deep sea and warm water port has enormous potential for Pakistan’s economic growth and to become a regional hub for trade and transportation, especially in an environment where great powers are vying for influence in this vital region.
In contrast to other rival ports, such as Chabahar, Gwadar Port maintains Pakistan’s strategic edge. It is ideally situated to serve not just China’s western provinces but three key regions i.e. the Middle East, South Asia, and Central Asia, providing an alternative to congested maritime routes. Gwadar’s proximity to the Strait of Hormuz in addition to being the quickest commercial route to China makes it extremely important for landlocked countries like Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics.
As a littoral state, Pakistan has to ride the waves to navigate fragmented regional trade as well as changing strategic and economic realities. By tapping the unexplored potential of its 290,000 square kilometers Continental Shelf and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), the country can access critical resources and support economic activity in areas like oil and gas exploration, fisheries, and marine research.
Additionally, the potential of CPEC and Gwadar can be maximised by making economic revitalisation a top priority through investments in these projects. To address challenges and seize opportunities, Pakistan must have a comprehensive strategy, emphasising economy, security, and partnerships with other littoral countries. Pakistan is thriving in an area where the interests of powerful nations both overlap and diverge. Therefore, Pakistan must balance its relations with both China and the US to get the benefits of development and foreign investment.
Pakistan must capitalise on its strategic position at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, and assets like CPEC and Gwadar deep sea port. In contrast to India, aligned with the West, particularly the US, Pakistan can diversify its economic ties through CPEC. This way it can become a major player in trade facilitation across regions, drawing in capital while supporting the country’s economic growth. However, to fully harness these economic dividends, Pakistan needs robust maritime security and collaboration with regional navies to counter conventional and unconventional threats to safeguard vital trade routes and ensure a smooth flow of trade. This is essential to achieve long-term objectives as well as solidify Pakistan’s role and position in the evolving geo-economic, geo-political, and strategic landscape of IOR.