The agriculture sector of Pakistan is one of the prime economic sectors which employs more than 40% of the workforce while contributing to 24% of the GDP. What is negatively affecting the productivity of this sector is climate change. As land and water surfaces heat up, increased evapotranspiration drives higher water consumption by crops, placing greater pressure on freshwater resources in the agriculture sector. Additionally, the warming of water bodies promotes bacterial growth, the resurgence of germs, and the accumulation of other pollutants.
Thus, climate change, with its rising temperatures, not only elevates demand for water in agriculture but also degrades water quality. Sporadic weather patterns directly translate to unfavourable impacts on agriculture that not only give rise to food insecurity but also produce an undesirable effect on household incomes, especially for indigenous communities. In Asian countries, temperatures are predicted to rise by 5-6 C by the end of the century which can cause 50% of the wheat productivity to be lost. This is extremely concerning for Pakistan since wheat accounts for 70% of the country's agriculture production.
Water is an essential resource for agriculture. Currently, Pakistan's ranks among the ‘high water risk’ countries. In fact, for at least, one month in the year, more than 80% of the population experiences ‘severe water scarcity’ in the country. The level of water stress, which is defined as the freshwater withdrawal percentage of available freshwater resources, has experienced a spike in Pakistan, especially, post-2010. More than 50% of the freshwater withdrawal in Pakistan between 2000 and 2020 has been because of agriculture, followed by domestic use, and then, industrial sectors. In simple words, the stress on freshwater resources is primarily being driven by agriculture which is occurring because of a sustained increase in population, and this, coupled with climate change has scaled up the need for freshwater usage in agriculture.
Freshwater in agriculture in Pakistan comes from the Indus Basin Irrigation System. The freshwater within this network is delivered through unlined canals, perennial rivers, and distribution channels, forming the surface freshwater resource. This is sourced from the Himalayas where glaciers are rapidly melting due to increasing temperatures. The glacial retreat has reduced the flow of water into the rivers and subsequently the canals, affecting crop production.
Another source of freshwater for agriculture that has been under immense stress lately is groundwater. Ever since the advent of tube wells in Pakistan, almost every landholder has preferred to use these mechanised water pumps to extract an uninterrupted flow of water. The percentage of area equipped for irrigation by surface water has decreased from 2000 to 2021. This can be largely attributed to climate change which has increased the evaporation rate, leading to lower water flows in the agricultural land. In contrast, the percentage of water equipped for groundwater irrigation has only slightly decreased. Unfortunately, no concept of using treated municipal wastewater has been pervasively adopted in Pakistan. With the usage of recycled wastewater, the strain on depleting freshwater resources for agriculture can be largely reduced.
The government of Pakistan needs to invest in climate-smart agriculture in Pakistan which seeks to integrate agricultural development with climate adaptation strategies to ensure food security and meet economic growth goals amid climate change impacts
While sources of irrigation in Pakistan are, undeniably, being impacted by climate change and increasing population, there is also very limited climate-smart agriculture research being done. For most of the crops in Pakistan, the blue water footprint (volume of groundwater and surface water consumed because of the production of a good or service) and green water footprint (volume of rainwater consumed during the production process) are extremely high. Wheat, particularly, has a high footprint in both blue water and green water categories. Moreover, greenhouse gasses like Methane and Nitrogen Dioxide have also increased in percentage in the atmosphere due to agriculture. In other words, while climate change is adding to predicaments for the agriculture sector of Pakistan, agricultural practices are further reinforcing climate change, creating a closed, repeated loop.
The government of Pakistan needs to invest in climate-smart agriculture in Pakistan which seeks to integrate agricultural development with climate adaptation strategies to ensure food security and meet economic growth goals amid climate change impacts.
Essentially, climate-smart agriculture can balance productivity, mitigation, and adaptation in this significant economic sector of Pakistan. Similarly, more technological improvements need to be made in Geographic Information Systems and remote sensing facilities that can help optimise resource use and provide important insights into different variables related to crop condition, and soil health. Precise, granular data collection is especially important for suitable cropping patterns across the diverse agro-ecological zones. However, these interventions must be done holistically, incorporating indigenous knowledge, and creating a collaborative framework.