As a teenager, Putin was inspired by popular Soviet stories about the KGB’s bravado in which “one man’s efforts could achieve what whole armies could not. One spy could decide the fate of thousands of people.” That’s according to his German biographer who was quoted in the BBC magazine.
After college, Putin joined the KGB. When the Berlin Wall collapsed in 1989, he expected Russia would send in its tanks to salvage the situation. He reached out to a tank commander and asked him why his tanks were not moving. The commander said, “I can’t move them without Moscow’s orders.” Then, he added, “Moscow has chosen to remain silent.”
This was Mikael Gorbachev’s Russia. He had asked the tanks to stand down. At some point, all of East Germany fell and soon thereafter the USSR disintegrated. That sense of loss has never left Putin. He continues to ruminate about it. He thinks he now has the means with which to restore Russia’s wounded pride.
Russia was the biggest of the 15 republics that constituted the USSR, with Ukraine being the second largest. Going back centuries, when the Czars ruled Russia, it had been Moscow’s priority to integrate Ukraine with Russia. The populations have intermingled in the east, where a very large number of people are native speakers of Russian.
In 2000, Putin rose to the top of the power pyramid in Moscow. In his eyes, Ukraine should be part of Russia. The claim is irredentist in nature, based on the fact that it was once part of the Russian Empire. The annexation of Crimea was similarly irredentist in nature. Before the “special military operation” began in Ukraine, Putin’s code words for an outright invasion, he gave a long rambling speech of which 45 minutes were devoted to a rewriting of Ukrainian history.
Before Putin chose to deploy nearly 200,000 troops on the boundary of Ukraine, he had to test the waters. How would the West react? Since Ukraine is not part of NATO, he assumed that a military response from the West was unlikely. But even then, he moved slowly, perhaps guided by Lenin’s dictum: “You probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw.”
Why did he move at this time? He was concerned about Ukraine joining NATO. Additionally, he knew that the formation of the QUAD was bothering China. So, he chose to visit President Xi during the Winter Olympics to show solidarity between the two countries which were on opposing sides during the Cold War. Whether he will be able to pull off a long-term realignment of relations between the two countries remains to be seen.
There is much we don’t know. Has Putin proceeded with this very daring adventure in Ukraine to test the resolve of the West? Or is this a prelude to a bigger adventure? Regardless, Putin is relishing in the moment, knowing he has made history. Nothing on this scale has happened in Europe since the end of the Second World War.
How did Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent visit to Moscow fit into this big picture? He happened to be in Moscow on the day of the invasion. Pictures of him chilling with Putin, laying a wreath on the tomb of the unknown soldier, escorted by soldiers of the same military which is raining down artillery shells, bombs and missiles on Ukraine, may have done wonders for Putin’s image but did little for Imran’s.
At the Winter Olympics in Beijing, Imran had conferred with President Xi. More than likely, Xi convinced Putin to invite Imran. Putin wanted to show the world that Pakistan, a former partner of the US during the Cold War, most notably during the hot war in Afghanistan (1979-88), was now his partner.
Knowing that Imran Khan was big on Islamophobia (except when it came to China), Putin issued a supportive statement on Islamophobia in the days prior to Imran’s visit. He also arranged a meeting between Imran and the Imam of the Moscow Cathedral Mosque. When Imran landed in Moscow, he could not but say that it was an exciting time to be there.
The war will be costly for Russia. The West has already imposed some very stiff sanctions that will take a toll on its citizens. Putin is hoping to ride it out. He knows the West will not attack him militarily since Ukraine is not part of NATO. The West knows that a war against Russia will be enormously costly and probably unwinnable. It’s no secret that Russia has one of the best equipped and best trained militaries in the world and that it possesses more than 6,000 nuclear weapons.
In his rhetoric, Putin has gone off on the deep end. In his declaration of war, he threatened anyone “who tries to stand in our way” with “consequences you have never encountered in your history.” That’s Putinspeak for a nuclear attack.
Knowing that Russia is not faring well either economically or politically has turned him into a gambler. He must know that if he loses the war, he will be branded a war criminal, a person who engaged in wilful killing and extensive destruction of property not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly.
This is not the first time Russia’s actions have been hard to fathom. Recall what Winston Churchill said on the 1st of October, 1939, after Hitler had invaded Czechoslovakia: “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.”
Putin thinks Russia’s national interest requires it to recover the greatness it had during the tenure of Peter the Great, argues Niall Ferguson. He has suggested that Putin is beginning to think of himself as Tsar Vladimir.
According to the Financial Times, Putin has transformed himself into a “messiah-like figure who is nurturing a new Leviathan set in a grim bedrock of revanchist conservatism. Armed with a belief in his historical destiny, Putin is acting more strongly and boldly.”
When Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai was asked what was the impact of the French Revolution, he replied: “It’s too early to say.” The same can be said of Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.
After college, Putin joined the KGB. When the Berlin Wall collapsed in 1989, he expected Russia would send in its tanks to salvage the situation. He reached out to a tank commander and asked him why his tanks were not moving. The commander said, “I can’t move them without Moscow’s orders.” Then, he added, “Moscow has chosen to remain silent.”
This was Mikael Gorbachev’s Russia. He had asked the tanks to stand down. At some point, all of East Germany fell and soon thereafter the USSR disintegrated. That sense of loss has never left Putin. He continues to ruminate about it. He thinks he now has the means with which to restore Russia’s wounded pride.
Russia was the biggest of the 15 republics that constituted the USSR, with Ukraine being the second largest. Going back centuries, when the Czars ruled Russia, it had been Moscow’s priority to integrate Ukraine with Russia. The populations have intermingled in the east, where a very large number of people are native speakers of Russian.
In 2000, Putin rose to the top of the power pyramid in Moscow. In his eyes, Ukraine should be part of Russia. The claim is irredentist in nature, based on the fact that it was once part of the Russian Empire. The annexation of Crimea was similarly irredentist in nature. Before the “special military operation” began in Ukraine, Putin’s code words for an outright invasion, he gave a long rambling speech of which 45 minutes were devoted to a rewriting of Ukrainian history.
Before Putin chose to deploy nearly 200,000 troops on the boundary of Ukraine, he had to test the waters. How would the West react? Since Ukraine is not part of NATO, he assumed that a military response from the West was unlikely. But even then, he moved slowly, perhaps guided by Lenin’s dictum: “You probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw.”
Why did he move at this time? He was concerned about Ukraine joining NATO. Additionally, he knew that the formation of the QUAD was bothering China. So, he chose to visit President Xi during the Winter Olympics to show solidarity between the two countries which were on opposing sides during the Cold War. Whether he will be able to pull off a long-term realignment of relations between the two countries remains to be seen.
There is much we don’t know. Has Putin proceeded with this very daring adventure in Ukraine to test the resolve of the West? Or is this a prelude to a bigger adventure? Regardless, Putin is relishing in the moment, knowing he has made history. Nothing on this scale has happened in Europe since the end of the Second World War.
How did Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent visit to Moscow fit into this big picture? He happened to be in Moscow on the day of the invasion. Pictures of him chilling with Putin, laying a wreath on the tomb of the unknown soldier, escorted by soldiers of the same military which is raining down artillery shells, bombs and missiles on Ukraine, may have done wonders for Putin’s image but did little for Imran’s.
At the Winter Olympics in Beijing, Imran had conferred with President Xi. More than likely, Xi convinced Putin to invite Imran. Putin wanted to show the world that Pakistan, a former partner of the US during the Cold War, most notably during the hot war in Afghanistan (1979-88), was now his partner.
Knowing that Imran Khan was big on Islamophobia (except when it came to China), Putin issued a supportive statement on Islamophobia in the days prior to Imran’s visit. He also arranged a meeting between Imran and the Imam of the Moscow Cathedral Mosque. When Imran landed in Moscow, he could not but say that it was an exciting time to be there.
The war will be costly for Russia. The West has already imposed some very stiff sanctions that will take a toll on its citizens. Putin is hoping to ride it out. He knows the West will not attack him militarily since Ukraine is not part of NATO. The West knows that a war against Russia will be enormously costly and probably unwinnable. It’s no secret that Russia has one of the best equipped and best trained militaries in the world and that it possesses more than 6,000 nuclear weapons.
Knowing that Imran Khan was big on Islamophobia (except when it came to China), Putin issued a supportive statement on Islamophobia in the days prior to Imran’s visit. He also arranged a meeting between Imran and the Imam of the Moscow Cathedral Mosque. When Imran landed in Moscow, he could not but say that it was an exciting time to be there.
In his rhetoric, Putin has gone off on the deep end. In his declaration of war, he threatened anyone “who tries to stand in our way” with “consequences you have never encountered in your history.” That’s Putinspeak for a nuclear attack.
Knowing that Russia is not faring well either economically or politically has turned him into a gambler. He must know that if he loses the war, he will be branded a war criminal, a person who engaged in wilful killing and extensive destruction of property not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly.
This is not the first time Russia’s actions have been hard to fathom. Recall what Winston Churchill said on the 1st of October, 1939, after Hitler had invaded Czechoslovakia: “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.”
Putin thinks Russia’s national interest requires it to recover the greatness it had during the tenure of Peter the Great, argues Niall Ferguson. He has suggested that Putin is beginning to think of himself as Tsar Vladimir.
According to the Financial Times, Putin has transformed himself into a “messiah-like figure who is nurturing a new Leviathan set in a grim bedrock of revanchist conservatism. Armed with a belief in his historical destiny, Putin is acting more strongly and boldly.”
When Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai was asked what was the impact of the French Revolution, he replied: “It’s too early to say.” The same can be said of Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.