Albert Einstein once said, "I don't know how World War III will be fought, but I do know that World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." Obviously, he was referring to thousands of nuclear bombs that would reverse the entire development of the world and take humanity to the Stone Age.
It has been over a thousand days since the Ukraine-Russia war began. In a major shift in this long war, Ukraine has, for the first time, used the American long-range missile system ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) against Russian targets. On Tuesday, November 19, Ukraine fired six ATAMCS ballistic missiles at Russia's southwestern region of Bryansk. Just two days earlier, on November 17, Russia had launched the largest attack on Ukraine in two years, firing 200 missiles and drones at Ukrainian energy targets.
Before November 17, the United States, France, and Germany virtually agreed that they would provide heavy weapons to Ukraine to use them only for 'defense'. These were not weapons meant for deep strikes inside Russia. But now, US President Joe Biden, in the final days of his presidency, has permitted Ukraine to use its long-range missile systems to launch strikes inside Russia. France already transferred its long-range SCALP missiles to Ukraine in July. It had previously advocated that Ukraine should also be allowed to use long-range missiles for strikes. However, due to the non-acceptance of Germany and the United States, it was also unable to give open permission.
Until now Russia's nuclear doctrine was that the country would use nuclear weapons only if another nuclear power attacked its nuclear assets or if the sovereignty of the Russian motherland would be threatened. But now President Putin has approved a new policy. That is, if a non-atomic power aligned with an atomic power, will threaten the security of the Russian motherland, then nuclear weapons can be used against it.
The world has moved another step towards a terrible war.
A debate is ongoing about the newly elected US President Donald Trump regarding this equation. Trump will take charge of the White House on January 20 next year. But until then, Biden has created problems for the incoming president.
Another message will also go out with it around the world if the deal is reached. That message is one that no American ally can rely on anymore
One possible way to end the war is to force one party to give up, to surrender. But this can only be done with a weak party as is Ukraine in the ongoing conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made it clear several times that he will never be willing to cede his land to Russian occupation. Therefore, Donald Trump cannot easily convince Ukraine of the current battle lines. In my view, Ukraine cannot be forced to surrender.
The second possible scenario is if Russia is forced or is persuaded by Trump to come to the negotiation table and stopping the attacks in the meantime. Putin has said many times that if two guarantees are given, he was ready to negotiate. The first is that Ukraine will never be included in NATO. Second, the territory that Russia has secured in Ukraine will not be returned. Peace is possible on these terms.
if President Zelenskyy does not accept this scenario, it means that the incumbent Ukrainian president would have to be replaced by someone else first. However, the news coming from the battlefield from the Ukrainian media, suggests that if Russia can give a good face-saving to the Ukrainians, then the Ukrainian army will be ready for a ceasefire. Evidence of this has just come to light from Ukrainian war journalist, Natalia.
In a news item published on BBC, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said that he thinks the war will end soon with the arrival of Trump. Keep in mind the recent call between the German Chancellor and the Russian President and negotiations for a ceasefire. All this suggests that at least two Western powers want Russia to consider giving Ukraine a fine face-saving deal to end the war.
Putin can give some face-saving to Ukraine. He can give Ukraine a security guarantee on its promise to remain neutral. In Crimea and regions occupied by Russia, he will be ready to grant special rights to the Ukrainian population. These areas should be given the status of autonomous regions or semi-autonomous regions within Russia. The third concession he can make is that whatever destruction inside Ukraine, he will be willing to contribute to its reconstruction. By giving some such fee savings, he can get back his 1,300 prisoners in exchange for 6,000 Ukrainian prisoners.
In any such case, only two people will be winners. One is President Putin for achieving all his war aims. First, Ukraine did not become a member of NATO and secondly, he annexed a good portion of the Russian population into Russia. The other winner would be Donald Trump, who, according to his biggest foreign affairs promise, ended the war in Ukraine. But the real loss of this deal will be to President Zelenskyy of Ukraine and overall, Europe after him. It would be the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, that Russian forces entered a country and emerged victorious.
Europe and America will have to swallow the blow of several hundred billion dollars which they have spent in this blind well. This situation has plunged America and Europe into inflation, and for Canada and Great Britain which are stuck in the housing crisis, it is extremely difficult. Another message will also go out with it around the world if a deal is reached. That message is one that no American ally can rely on it anymore. In 2021, the US fled, leaving its ally Ashraf Ghani's Afghan government at the mercy of the Taliban.
Besides changing its nuclear doctrine, Moscow can go further. As Europe and the United States have given long-range missile systems to their enemies, Moscow can do the same by helping the enemies of the US and Europe. It can settle the score by providing North Korea, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, and others with a missile defense system or similar technology.
Battlefield stories and propaganda only appeal to those who are sitting outside the war. The war-fighters wait every moment for the war to end and never want war again. Wars don't decide right or wrong, they just decide who will survive.