Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visited Pakistan for three days from 22nd to 25th April 2024. This visit occurred against the backdrop of significant developments in the Middle East, commencing with Israel's assault on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, resulting in casualties, including two high-ranking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders. In retaliation, Iran launched a missile and drone strike on Israel, intercepting most of the projectiles mid-air before they reached Israeli territory. Moreover, tensions escalated earlier in January this year, when Iran targeted alleged terrorist hideouts within Pakistan's borders, prompting a reciprocal response from Pakistan within Iran's territory.
According to diplomatic sources, President Raisi's visit was planned well in advance of these events, with a focus on enhancing bilateral trade, particularly regarding the long-awaited gas pipeline between the two nations. Initially agreed upon in 2008, the pipeline's progress has been hindered by US sanctions on Iran, prohibiting trade relations with the country. While Iran has completed its portion of the pipeline at a cost of $2 billion, Pakistan is yet to construct the remaining 80 km segment. Failure to do so may incur a penalty of nearly $18 billion for Pakistan.
It's plausible that both sides deliberately downplayed the visit, possibly with the tacit approval of the United States, which was informed by Iran before its military actions against Israel.
However, the substance of President Raisi's visit appears somewhat ambiguous. Meetings with the Pakistani Prime Minister and President seemed more like photo opportunities. President Raisi's visits to Allama Iqbal's mausoleum in Lahore and Quaid-e-Azam's mausoleum in Karachi added symbolic value in addition to his desire of addressing a public gathering in Pakistan, but the joint statement issued merely reiterated commitments to increase bilateral trade from $2 billion to $10 billion over the next five years. The statement also included plans for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), regular Bilateral Political Consultations (BPC), establishment of a Joint Business Trade Committee (JBTC), and upcoming negotiations of the Joint Economic Commission (JEC).
As Hamlet famously declared, "words, words, words" – seemingly empty rhetoric.
One wonders why the President of Iran, an important nation in the Middle East that was recently involved in a military confrontation with Israel, would visit Pakistan only to receive a lukewarm reception, as an Iranian news outlet described it: "Iran's President Raisi Snubbed On Delegation To Pakistan." The President was greeted only by the Minister of Housing at Noor Khan Airbase in Rawalpindi, and likewise sent off from Karachi by a Federal Minister. Did he journey all this way for mere photo ops, leaving with a lacklustre joint statement?
It's plausible that both sides deliberately downplayed the visit, possibly with the tacit approval of the United States, which was informed by Iran before its military actions against Israel. A detailed report in The New York Times dated 17th April 2024 suggests that American officials were blindsided by Israel's actions, and therefore dismayed, while Iran had taken the US administration on board via different diplomatic channels on the details of its response to Israel. “American officials found themselves in an odd and uncomfortable position: They had been kept in the dark about an important action by a close ally, Israel, even as Iran, a long time adversary, telegraphed its intentions well in advance.”
Could it be that the Americans are growing wary of Israel?
Prime Minister Netanyahu's response to the October 7th attacks by Hamas in Israel, characterized by an aggressive air campaign, has resulted in widespread casualties among Palestinians. This has been widely termed as genocide of the Palestinians, which has left the Biden administration's support for Israel in a challenging position domestically and internationally. Hence, Iran's actions may have been met with silent consent from the US, followed by President Raisi's visit to Pakistan shortly after the departure of the Saudi Deputy Defence Minister and his delegation, suggesting a nuanced diplomatic dance orchestrated with US involvement. Everything looks connected. But these are all speculations.
The question for us to ponder is this: while Pakistanis themselves are hesitant to invest in their own country, instead relocating their investments and businesses to other nations in the region, why would another nation wish to invest in Pakistan? And if they do, what’s the catch?
Ostensibly, things are not as simple as they appear. One might not be certain of the conclusions drawn from connecting the dots, but one cannot ignore the validity of the questions being raised. These questions have been posed in my show, Talking Politics, on YouTube over the last 10 days. Shall the Iran-Israel conflict escalate into a full-scale war? Is it Iran that is dragging Israel into a wider conflict since Oct 7? Or is the US hand in glove with Iran (or Israel) on this?
What kind of coincidence is it that Saudis and Iranian delegates visit Pakistan one after another within the span of a few days – both discussing trade and investment, apparently! There’s nothing new, nothing that even sounds promising, as the stories have been afloat for decades about cheap gas from Iran, Saudis setting up an oil refinery in Gwadar, and investing in the Reko Diq Copper-Gold Project in Baluchistan. All we have seen in this regard is like a teenage love affair – one step forward, two steps back. The same goes for the CPEC, leaving another trade partner bewildered.
One thing, nevertheless, is certain. Pakistan is being drawn into yet another situation it must avoid. The aftermath of the previous two engagements in Afghanistan, in 1979 and 2001, has exacted a heavy toll. Subsequently, Pakistan’s economy has plummeted alongside its political culture and stability, plunging the country into a quagmire of economic stress. With the Middle East on the qui vive, Pakistan should strive to steer clear of another unwelcome entanglement. The question for us to ponder is this: while Pakistanis themselves are hesitant to invest in their own country, instead relocating their investments and businesses to other nations in the region, why would another nation wish to invest in Pakistan? And if they do, what’s the catch?