Both the PML-N and PTI came to power because of their electoral victory in Punjab. The PML-N came to power thrice -- in 1990, 1996 and 2013 -- because of their overwhelming support base in the Central Punjab region inhabited mostly by the middle-class. The PTI started to make inroads into the middle class of Punjab in 2011, when Imran Khan staged his first successful rally in Lahore.
Pakistan Army is invested in the middle-class belonging to Central Punjab because it draws most of its officers’ corps from here. This phenomenon is best evidenced in the entertainment programmes sponsored by ISPR. The latest drama series, Ehd-e-Wafa, presents young protagonists who either belong to the middle-class or aspire to belong to it. The colourful imagery in ISPR-sponsored music video displays a penchant for this class ethos.
Another indication of the same phenomenon is gradual political and legal relief leaders of the PML-N received from the state machinery in the past four years in social media campaigns against the military high command.
The PTI and PML-N are rivals because both the parties are constantly trying to be on the right side of the military command. It all started when Imran Khan came to power in July 2018, after a prolonged witch-hunt that specifically targeted former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. There is evidence to suggest that the military command was instrumental in prosecuting Sharif, a politician who draws support from Punjabi middle-class. For instance, Justice (R) Shaukat Siddique has publicly stated that the then DG ISI, Lt General Faiz Hameed, met him and asked him not to grant bail to Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam before the polls. A massive anti-military media campaign was launched by the PML-N supporters, at rallies in Punjab’s urban centres and on social media to malign the role of the military establishment in the politics of the country. Nawaz Sharif named the military high command in his online speech at the Gujranwala rally from London in October 2020.
This phenomenon is best evidenced in the entertainment programmes sponsored by ISPR. The latest drama series, Ehd-e-Wafa, presents young protagonists who either belong to the middle-class or aspire to belong to it. The colourful imagery in ISPR-sponsored music video displays a penchant for this class ethos.
All the above, in addition with allowing Nawaz Sharif to proceed abroad for medical treatment after the NAB court convicted him of corruption and sentenced him in absentia to 10 years in prison, and now allowing his political party to return to power, are very clear indications of why and how representation of the Punjabi middle-class is essential to the power dynamics of the country. A politician, with a middle-class following, could not be kept in jail for too long or his party kept out of power.
So, describing Nawaz Sharif and other politicians with middle-class vote bank as sweethearts of the state would not be an exaggeration by any means. If the PTI’s social media campaign is to be believed, Imran Khan was ousted from power through the no-confidence motion with the active participation of the military high command.
However, one wonders if Imran Khan, with a mass following in the Punjabi middle-class, has lost its sweetheart status. If his party’s aggressive social media campaign against the military high command is any indication of the political space available (or granted) to him, he has surely not lost his status completely.
The political elite of other provinces like Balochistan does not enjoy similar space in the political arena. In fact their protests against the military has even cost them their lives and freedom.
The Punjabi middle-class shares some common political and psychological traits. They are religiously and socially conservative; anti-India and love yet hate the military high command.
Remember no one is more adept at twisting and bending the moods and proclivities of Punjabi middle-class than the military establishment – by keeping their sweethearts close to their hearts.
The question that still perplexes political observers is why religiously conservative and anti-India middle classes voted for Nawaz Sharif in July 2018 when he was labelled as anti-national and pro-India. Some argue that Nawaz Sharif lost the support of conservatives to the Tehrik-e-Laibak Pakistan (TLP) that, according to one assessment, cost him 16 National Assembly seats in the 2018 parliamentary elections.
Imran Khan’s post-ouster aggressive tone stems from his fear that the state might treat him like it treated Nawaz Sharif. He should have some inkling about the mood within the military establishment – look how DG ISPR contradicted his foreign conspiracy narrative.
The military high command, which discernibly controls the coercive machinery of the state, could take a short leave to allow the sentiments of middle-class to take shape in political decision-making. Clearly, they took a short leave between 2017 and 2018 after the fall of Nawaz Sharif. There are a myriad of possibilities in this connection: treason case under Article 6 is one and sensational corruption scandals another.
Remember no one is more adept at twisting and bending the moods and proclivities of Punjabi middle-class than the military establishment – by keeping their sweethearts close to their hearts.