The four countries participating in the Quadrilateral Framework on Afghan Reconciliation – Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States and China – are close to agreeing on a roadmap for peace process that would possibly set into motion negotiations with Taliban militants for ending violence in Afghanistan.
The agreement on the roadmap is expected at the next meeting of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group, which is steering the process, in Islamabad on February 6. The group that came into existence following an agreement between the four countries in December, on the sidelines of Heart of Asia Conference, for collaboration for peace in Afghanistan started functioning this month and has so far met twice.
The features of the proposed roadmap, which is still being negotiated, are not publicly known, but diplomats say that it would envisage the steps that would be required to end violence and create conditions for a lasting peace in the war ravaged country, besides outlining the role of the four partners in the framework and a broader timeline according to which the process would proceed.
“It is likely that the roadmap may be finalized in the Islamabad meeting after some modifications in the draft proposed by the Afghan side. It would, however, remain a work in progress and adjustments could be made as the process proceeds,” an official said in a background interview.
The two meetings that took place in Islamabad and Kabul in January remained focused on how the process would progress and more importantly on the issues in the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan – the two key stakeholders in the peace effort. The thorny relationship between the two countries is one reason why US and China have been included in the framework. US and China have their respective spheres of influence in Afghanistan, but their presence in the group is to prevent the arrangement from falling apart due to unrelenting mistrust between the two neighbours.
Former Afghan envoy to Pakistan Janan Mousazai had said in his last public appearance in Islamabad as ambassador that China and US were there to infuse confidence in the process.
The test of that role has probably arrived with the January 20 Bacha Khan University attack, which Pakistan claims was masterminded and directed by Afghanistan based terrorists. Evidence in this regard, Pakistan military says, was delivered to Afghan authorities after Army Chief Gen Raheel Sharif spoke to President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah. The allegation was re-stated when Afghan Charge d’ Affaires Syed Abdul Nasir Yousafi was summoned to Foreign Office last Monday and action was sought against the group involved in the attack.
Kabul has denied these allegations and instead accused Pakistan of harbouring Taliban that have been behind violence in Afghanistan.
This public spat between the two main stakeholders just ahead of the finalization of the roadmap – the first major step towards reviving the peace talks that stalled six months ago when it became public that Mullah Omar died more than two years back – would not be helpful.
Diplomats involved in the process still think that BKU would not become a roadblock. But they agree that the incident and Pakistan’s belief that the attack was controlled from Afghanistan would hurt efforts to build trust between the two countries, and may affect the mood at the upcoming meeting.
In the worst case scenario, they expect the BKU tragedy to slow down the progress towards resumption of reconciliation process.
In addition to behind-the-scenes US messaging, China has been publicly telling Afghanistan to create favourable conditions for the resumption of peace dialogue and that Pakistan should be seen as an important player. This could be implied as a signal to Kabul to cooperate with Pakistan.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told visiting Afghan Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani that Pakistan can play a positive and special role in reconciliation process.
Meanwhile, Afghan Taliban have renewed their conditions for joining the peace dialogue.
The Quadrilateral Coordination Group had, after both of its meetings in January, called for immediate start of direct talks between Afghan government and Taliban militants.
The Taliban conditions stated by their chief negotiator Sher Abbas Stanekzai during a Track-II dialogue hosted by Pugwash Conferences in Qatar include withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan, establishment of an Islamic system, release of Taliban prisoners, delisting of Taliban leaders by UN Sanctions Committee including an end to travel ban on them, stopping “poisonous propaganda” against the insurgents, and a formal recognition of Taliban’s political office in Doha.
The conditions are not new, but their reiteration is meaningful as they come at a time when four nation talks are taking place on how to get the reconciliation process back on track. Moreover, it was important to note that the Taliban did not outrightly reject the quadrilateral initiative.
Taliban’s stated terms may be interpreted as their negotiating position instead of demands, because they had joined the peace talks in Murree back in July stating the same. All sides move from their stated positions and adjust once the negotiations progress. It becomes problematic only when these become firm demands.
The writer is a freelance journalist based in Islamabad
Email: mamoonarubab@gmail.com
Twitter: @bokhari_mr
The agreement on the roadmap is expected at the next meeting of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group, which is steering the process, in Islamabad on February 6. The group that came into existence following an agreement between the four countries in December, on the sidelines of Heart of Asia Conference, for collaboration for peace in Afghanistan started functioning this month and has so far met twice.
The features of the proposed roadmap, which is still being negotiated, are not publicly known, but diplomats say that it would envisage the steps that would be required to end violence and create conditions for a lasting peace in the war ravaged country, besides outlining the role of the four partners in the framework and a broader timeline according to which the process would proceed.
“It is likely that the roadmap may be finalized in the Islamabad meeting after some modifications in the draft proposed by the Afghan side. It would, however, remain a work in progress and adjustments could be made as the process proceeds,” an official said in a background interview.
The two meetings that took place in Islamabad and Kabul in January remained focused on how the process would progress and more importantly on the issues in the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan – the two key stakeholders in the peace effort. The thorny relationship between the two countries is one reason why US and China have been included in the framework. US and China have their respective spheres of influence in Afghanistan, but their presence in the group is to prevent the arrangement from falling apart due to unrelenting mistrust between the two neighbours.
Former Afghan envoy to Pakistan Janan Mousazai had said in his last public appearance in Islamabad as ambassador that China and US were there to infuse confidence in the process.
The test of that role has probably arrived with the January 20 Bacha Khan University attack, which Pakistan claims was masterminded and directed by Afghanistan based terrorists. Evidence in this regard, Pakistan military says, was delivered to Afghan authorities after Army Chief Gen Raheel Sharif spoke to President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah. The allegation was re-stated when Afghan Charge d’ Affaires Syed Abdul Nasir Yousafi was summoned to Foreign Office last Monday and action was sought against the group involved in the attack.
Kabul has denied these allegations and instead accused Pakistan of harbouring Taliban that have been behind violence in Afghanistan.
This public spat between the two main stakeholders just ahead of the finalization of the roadmap – the first major step towards reviving the peace talks that stalled six months ago when it became public that Mullah Omar died more than two years back – would not be helpful.
Diplomats involved in the process still think that BKU would not become a roadblock. But they agree that the incident and Pakistan’s belief that the attack was controlled from Afghanistan would hurt efforts to build trust between the two countries, and may affect the mood at the upcoming meeting.
In the worst case scenario, they expect the BKU tragedy to slow down the progress towards resumption of reconciliation process.
In addition to behind-the-scenes US messaging, China has been publicly telling Afghanistan to create favourable conditions for the resumption of peace dialogue and that Pakistan should be seen as an important player. This could be implied as a signal to Kabul to cooperate with Pakistan.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told visiting Afghan Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani that Pakistan can play a positive and special role in reconciliation process.
Meanwhile, Afghan Taliban have renewed their conditions for joining the peace dialogue.
The Quadrilateral Coordination Group had, after both of its meetings in January, called for immediate start of direct talks between Afghan government and Taliban militants.
The Taliban conditions stated by their chief negotiator Sher Abbas Stanekzai during a Track-II dialogue hosted by Pugwash Conferences in Qatar include withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan, establishment of an Islamic system, release of Taliban prisoners, delisting of Taliban leaders by UN Sanctions Committee including an end to travel ban on them, stopping “poisonous propaganda” against the insurgents, and a formal recognition of Taliban’s political office in Doha.
The conditions are not new, but their reiteration is meaningful as they come at a time when four nation talks are taking place on how to get the reconciliation process back on track. Moreover, it was important to note that the Taliban did not outrightly reject the quadrilateral initiative.
Taliban’s stated terms may be interpreted as their negotiating position instead of demands, because they had joined the peace talks in Murree back in July stating the same. All sides move from their stated positions and adjust once the negotiations progress. It becomes problematic only when these become firm demands.
The writer is a freelance journalist based in Islamabad
Email: mamoonarubab@gmail.com
Twitter: @bokhari_mr