Wednesday's shocking assassination of Hamas' political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in the Iranian capital of Tehran signals a dangerous escalation for the region in the Israel-Hamas war, with the attack as much a message for the Palestinian group as much as his host country, Iran.
Haniyeh was in Tehran, along with senior officials from several countries, including Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, for the inauguration of Iran's newly-elected President Masoud Pezeshkian. Pezeshkian, considered a reformist, was elected in a run-off election following the death of his predecessor Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May.
Iran said an Israeli strike killed Haniyeh and his guard at their residence in a heavily defended residential area designated for veteran soldiers.
Analyst Murtaza Solangi said the assassination deep in the heart of Tehran signalled a 'dangerous escalation'.
"The assassination proves the technical superiority of Israel and its backers," he said, noting that it proved the degree of penetration that Israeli intelligence had managed within Iran. Apart from the threat it demonstrates to Hamas leadership, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to eradicate in the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, attack, it raises many alarms against the capability of the Iranian establishment to guard against attacks mounted by Israel or its backers.
Solangi believed that the fact that Haniyeh was killed in Iran clearly meant the target was not just Hamas but Iran.
If so, this would mean the second attack that Israel has mounted this year inside Iran and the third attack overall against Iran.
Earlier this year, Israel had fired missiles at the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Iran retaliated weeks later with arguably the first large-scale attack mounted on Israel from Iranian territory after it launched a barrage of some 180 drones. While most of the drones were intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome network of interceptor missiles and support from American and allied airforces in the region, some of the drones managed to hit targets in Israel, shattering Israel's myth of invincibility.
Israel retaliated by launching strikes of its own in Iran. Israel was then struck by drones fired by Yemen, which were duly retaliated. Israel has repeatedly accused Iran of operating a nexus against it by supplying advanced weapons, money and training to the likes of Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis in Yemen.
Solangi believed that the attack on Haniyeh in Iran would strengthen the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other hardliners who have been pushing hawkish policies towards Israel.
He feared this might weaken the newly elected Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian. Pezeshkian was believed to be a progressive reformist but will now be forced to adopt a more combative foreign policy, especially towards Israel and its backers, particularly the US, which is set to undergo a foreign policy review depending on the results of the November presidential elections.
Haniyeh's assassination and Hamas' future
Ismail Haniyeh had joined Hamas when it was founded in 1987 when the first Palestinian Intifada erupted against the Israeli occupation of Palestine.
Over the years, he climbed to various levels of prominence within the organisation.
However, his pragmatist approach and ability to maintain good relations with the heads of the various Palestinian factions - especially those rivalling Hamas - endeared him to Palestinians.
When Hamas secured an upset victory in 2006, Haniyeh's name was put forward as the Palestinian Prime Minister in a move to forge a unity government. Of course, Hamas securing a landslide political victory was unacceptable, and the elections were never accepted by Israel and the West, who went on to designate Hamas as a terrorist organisation while the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) and President Mahmoud Abbas were recognised as the legitimate Palestinian political entity.
He was ultimately elected as the head of the Hamas political bureau in 2017 to succeed Khaled Meshaal.
However, Solangi believed that while Haniyeh's assassination might be a short-term setback for Hamas, it would not impact the group's trajectory.
"The killing will not necessarily weaken Hamas as he was more of a peacemaker within the rival factions of the group. The hard power of Hamas lies with Yahya Sinwar in Gaza," Solangi held.
Earlier in the year, the International Criminal Court (ICC) Chief Prosecutor Karim AA Khan filed an application in the ICC seeking warrants over the situation in Palestine. The warrants were sought from Israeli leadership, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. Simultaneously, he also sought warrants for the leadership of Hamas, including Hamas Chief in Gaza Yahya Sinwar, Hamas Military Wing - Al-Qassam Brigades Commander Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masri and Haniyeh for criminal responsibility in perpetrating war crimes against humanity committed in Israel and in the Gaza Strip from October 7, 2023.
"My Office submits there are reasonable grounds to believe that Sinwar, Deif and Haniyeh are criminally responsible for the killing of hundreds of Israeli civilians in attacks perpetrated by Hamas (in particular its military wing, the al-Qassam Brigades) and other armed groups on October 7 2023 and the taking of at least 245 hostages," the application stated.
Thus, his killing may have a smaller impact on the case before the ICC, with greater responsibility shifting to the military commanders of Hamas.
Where it may have a greater impact, however, is the peace process between Hamas and Israel. Haniyeh was leading the peace process from the Hamas' side to negotiate the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons in exchange for around a hundred Israeli hostages in Hamas custody. The negotiations were being held through third party mediators including Qatar and Egypt with the US also playing a role.