Two powerful and unprecedented narratives are playing havoc with the sentiments of the nation. The first is about Nawaz Sharif’s disqualifications and convictions, personal health and heir apparent. This narrative is fast assuming critical mass in the democratic struggle for civilian supremacy over the Miltablishment. The second is about Maulana Fazal ur Rahman’s “long march” that has arrived in Islamabad and captured the stage for ousting Imran Khan and his PTI government.
The success of one narrative feeds into the other. Together, they serve to reinforce the popular rejection of the unholy alliance of the Miltablishment with the PTI that seeks, first, to exclude the two mainstream PMLN-PPP parties, the JUI and smaller regional parties and their political leaders from the political stakeholder landscape and, second, to establish a one-Miltablishment party rule in the country that diminishes the constitutional rights and autonomies of civil society, media and judiciary.
In an extraordinary display of personal courage and political astuteness, Nawaz Sharif has resisted Miltablishment efforts to emasculate him physically and politically so that the PMLQ reverts to its traditional King’s Party role. The more Nawaz has stood his ground despite failing health, the more popular he has become; the more the Miltablishment joins with select judges to thwart him, the more discredit they heap upon themselves. It has now come to pass that the Miltablishment is desperate to let him go so that his failing health doesn’t become a millstone around its neck.
Maulana Fazl has sprung up out of nowhere to seize the moment. His JUI is a most unexpected and unsuitable substitute for the PPP or PMLN. But he has filled the vacuum created by the decimation of the leadership of both parties and captured the imagination of the people. The Miltablishment is now scrambling to save its nth political experiment in extra-constitutionalism.
Several questions have arisen. If Nawaz Sharif has dug his heels in to resist the Miltablishment, why isn’t the rest of the PMLN parliamentary leadership in step with him? The pressure on him from Miltablishment, party and “family” to leave the country and quit politics is relentless. Indeed, that is why the PMLN has not actively lent its crowds to swell the long march heading to Islamabad. Much the same may be said of Asif Zardari and the PPP. Is it because both PMLN and PPP are cowering in shame and impotence following credible charges of corruption against party bigwigs, and wish to avoid coming under the Miltablishment heel any more forcefully?
This raises the question of why Maulana Fazl has decided to take a solo flight at the end of October and refused to postpone it even by a month at the request of both Shahbaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto. Never one to resist the inducements of power, he has taken on both the PTI government and the Miltablishment. If his purpose was merely to oust Imran Khan, his mission would have been better served by taking along the PMLN and PPP and delaying the Long March. No, it does seem that he has thrown the gauntlet to that section of the Miltablishment and PTI that is constantly threatening all and sundry with its “same-page” unity because he has the implicit but firm support of those in the same constellation who are not on the same page.
One issue, above all, has muddied the waters. That is the matter of the extension in tenure of COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa. Since both Gen Bajwa and Imran Khan never tire of reminding everyone of unity and continuity in command, this was a no-brainer. Yet some decidedly curious steps and statements have clouded the issue. In mid-August we were shown a “notification” from the office of the PM, signed by Imran Khan, giving an extension of three years to Gen Bajwa. But when it was pointed out that the notification must come from the office of the President of Pakistan, there was a stunning silence. In mid-September, a journalist asked President Arif Alvi whether he had signed and issued any such notification. His reply: “Although a decision has been taken to extend Gen Bajwa’s tenure, the file has not yet been sent up to me for signing.” Now, on the eve of the Maulana’s entry into Islamabad, a journalist has been put up to “confirm” that such a notification has indeed been signed by President Alvi. If that is the case, why is everyone pussyfooting around the subject? Why don’t we get to see the notification? Has it been signed but not declared in the public domain for some reason? Might the invisible “notification” be withdrawn or substituted by another notification in the near future? Does Maulana’s demand for Imran Khan’s ouster have anything to do with it? Who is going home? How close are the objectives of Nawaz Sharif and the Maulana? The answers are blowing in the wind.
The success of one narrative feeds into the other. Together, they serve to reinforce the popular rejection of the unholy alliance of the Miltablishment with the PTI that seeks, first, to exclude the two mainstream PMLN-PPP parties, the JUI and smaller regional parties and their political leaders from the political stakeholder landscape and, second, to establish a one-Miltablishment party rule in the country that diminishes the constitutional rights and autonomies of civil society, media and judiciary.
In an extraordinary display of personal courage and political astuteness, Nawaz Sharif has resisted Miltablishment efforts to emasculate him physically and politically so that the PMLQ reverts to its traditional King’s Party role. The more Nawaz has stood his ground despite failing health, the more popular he has become; the more the Miltablishment joins with select judges to thwart him, the more discredit they heap upon themselves. It has now come to pass that the Miltablishment is desperate to let him go so that his failing health doesn’t become a millstone around its neck.
Maulana Fazl has sprung up out of nowhere to seize the moment. His JUI is a most unexpected and unsuitable substitute for the PPP or PMLN. But he has filled the vacuum created by the decimation of the leadership of both parties and captured the imagination of the people. The Miltablishment is now scrambling to save its nth political experiment in extra-constitutionalism.
Several questions have arisen. If Nawaz Sharif has dug his heels in to resist the Miltablishment, why isn’t the rest of the PMLN parliamentary leadership in step with him? The pressure on him from Miltablishment, party and “family” to leave the country and quit politics is relentless. Indeed, that is why the PMLN has not actively lent its crowds to swell the long march heading to Islamabad. Much the same may be said of Asif Zardari and the PPP. Is it because both PMLN and PPP are cowering in shame and impotence following credible charges of corruption against party bigwigs, and wish to avoid coming under the Miltablishment heel any more forcefully?
This raises the question of why Maulana Fazl has decided to take a solo flight at the end of October and refused to postpone it even by a month at the request of both Shahbaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto. Never one to resist the inducements of power, he has taken on both the PTI government and the Miltablishment. If his purpose was merely to oust Imran Khan, his mission would have been better served by taking along the PMLN and PPP and delaying the Long March. No, it does seem that he has thrown the gauntlet to that section of the Miltablishment and PTI that is constantly threatening all and sundry with its “same-page” unity because he has the implicit but firm support of those in the same constellation who are not on the same page.
One issue, above all, has muddied the waters. That is the matter of the extension in tenure of COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa. Since both Gen Bajwa and Imran Khan never tire of reminding everyone of unity and continuity in command, this was a no-brainer. Yet some decidedly curious steps and statements have clouded the issue. In mid-August we were shown a “notification” from the office of the PM, signed by Imran Khan, giving an extension of three years to Gen Bajwa. But when it was pointed out that the notification must come from the office of the President of Pakistan, there was a stunning silence. In mid-September, a journalist asked President Arif Alvi whether he had signed and issued any such notification. His reply: “Although a decision has been taken to extend Gen Bajwa’s tenure, the file has not yet been sent up to me for signing.” Now, on the eve of the Maulana’s entry into Islamabad, a journalist has been put up to “confirm” that such a notification has indeed been signed by President Alvi. If that is the case, why is everyone pussyfooting around the subject? Why don’t we get to see the notification? Has it been signed but not declared in the public domain for some reason? Might the invisible “notification” be withdrawn or substituted by another notification in the near future? Does Maulana’s demand for Imran Khan’s ouster have anything to do with it? Who is going home? How close are the objectives of Nawaz Sharif and the Maulana? The answers are blowing in the wind.