Conspiracy theory is a belief in malevolent or hostile forces, persons or groups affecting public or private conditions or events. It largely assumes that what are observable actors or facts are not the real reasons for a phenomenon, but there are invisible elements or persons that are the drivers of a situation, known primarily to those propounding a theory.
Pakistan has a long history of conspiracy theories forming a part of the public discourse and individuals’ thinking. It has paid a heavy price for relying on conspiracy ideas for national policymaking and administration. I will come back to the discussion of Pakistan’s situation, but immediately l want to bring up the research findings about who and why people believe in conspiracy theories.
Some societies are more prone than others to conspiracy modes of thinking. Societies where beliefs in magic, voodoo, the evil-eye and miraculous happenings are widely held, conspiratorial explanations find a fertile ground. Similarly, authoritarianism and ideological conformity of both the right and left increases susceptibility to conspiracy theories. Freedom of expression and access to facts help reduce such proclivities in individuals as well as groups.
The research on the personality dispositions of believers in conspiracies is largely focussed on questions of psychological characteristics of individuals. Andreas Goreis and Martin Voracek of the University of Vienna (2019) have carried out a meta-analysis of 96 psychological studies to find common personality traits of those tending to believe conspiracy explanations. Their findings suggest that fear and anxiety as well as low feeling of control over situations show up as predictors of conspiracy beliefs.
The visible constitutional institutions are layered with invisible, but widely known, military and administrative power structures. It is not a wonder that often Pakistanis ask for ‘inside news’.
Among the social and political factors, cynicism and negative attitudes toward authority standout as contributors to conspiracy theories. Feeling disconnected from society stand out in their findings as an overarching factor in endorsing conspiracy beliefs, though they identified other reasons also.
A March 2019 article in Scientific American headlines that conspiracy theories share a cluster of psychological features. Drawing on a number of surveys as well as experimental studies, it estimates that almost a quarter of the American population tend to believe that conspiracies underlie many events. The article points out that stress, anxiety and alienation promote conspiracy ideation. The irony is that conspiracy theories increase rather than explain away the sense of powerlessness. False conspiracy theories are shown by experimental studies to be internally contradictory, based on shaky assumptions and are usually far-fetched, linking unrelated facts to build up a narrative. All in all, the conclusion is that confusing times breed conspiracy theories.
The distrust of institutions and particularly the intrigues associated with changing governments have laid the ground for doubting public narratives. Pakistan often has had a double reality; subterranean maneuverings coexist underlying visible events and explanations.
Individuals’ psychological inclinations to espouse conspiracy theories leaves out the question about group think along those lines. How do individuals’ ideas coalesce into a collective discourse? This question brings up issues of the formation of a collective mind, somewhat akin to a crowd behaviour. The critical part in the formation of this collective mind is widespread distrust, based on experiences, anxiety and disaffection with public institutions, be it politics, government, administration, military or market.
Karen Douglas et al, in a 2017 article in Current Directions in Psychological Science postulates that conspiracy theories provide explanations that help people to preserve their beliefs in the face of uncertainty and contradiction. Socially they give power and control to people with narratives that make them feel they know the ‘real’ reasons. They find scapegoats to blame unwelcome outcomes on unscrupulous others.
In Pakistan, conspiracy theories have long been a part of both individual thinking and the public discourse. Certainly, the distrust of institutions and particularly the intrigues associated with changing governments have laid the ground for doubting public narratives. Pakistan often has had a double reality; subterranean maneuverings coexist underlying visible events and explanations. The duality of reality lends some credibility to conspiracy theories. And this makes Pakistan a special case, where conspiracies may have a basis to be postulated.
Pakistan’s political history offers a credible basis for entertaining conspiracy theories. Its early experiment in electoral democracy collapsed by shifting loyalties and interventions of the civil and military elite. There were seven different prime ministers between 1947-58. Most came to power not by elections but by aligning with military and administrative power holders. A constitution was adopted (1956), but soon set aside by the first military dictator (1958-69). Thus, the visible constitutional institutions were layered with invisible, but widely known, military and administrative power structures. It is not a wonder that often Pakistanis ask for ‘inside news’.
Without recounting the political history of Pakistan, the fact that three direct military rules for a total of 32 years in the country’s 77 years of history speaks for the unconstitutional events affecting its institutions. Even when the elected governments were installed, they were dismissed, replaced and reinstalled by the military backed presidents between 1988-1999. In another round of elected governments, after 9 years of General Musharraf’s rule (1999-2008), the same pattern has been re-enacted leading up to the present times. There is no trust in public institutions, be it politics, judiciary, administration. They have the form but do not function by the institutional mandate. I call them ‘hollow institutions.’
Pakistan’s public as well as individual thought processes tend to give little credence to empirical facts. There is little inclination to rely on data, despite statistical bureaus, census organizations and public information departments.
Another factor that has contributed to the pervasiveness of conspiracy theories is the legacy of Partition. The communal riots and exchange of populations between newly independent India and Pakistan promoted a narrative of enmity. The Kashmir dispute and later Afghan Jihad, accompanied by terrorism sponsored from across the borders, fostered beliefs about foreign enemies sabotaging Pakistan. Blaming India, Russians, Afghans and now the Taliban, sometimes Israel and the US, are commonly assumed to be the causes of violent incidents and policy failures. I do not mean to suggest that foreign spying and covert actions do not happen, but to ascribe most national shortfalls to external agents tend to become a knee jerk habit.
Pakistan’s public as well as individual thought processes tend to give little credence to empirical facts. There is little inclination to rely on data, despite statistical bureaus, census organizations and public information departments. In fact, data are produced to support opinions of the rulers. A common habit is to view events in terms of persons and their interests, rather than impersonal forces and social trends.
Major national events are reported but seldom objectively investigated, be it the murder of the first prime minister, air crash of a military ruler, breaking away of Bangladesh, poor economic performance, terrorism and ethnic -regional uprisings, disastrous trains and bus accidents, crime and corruption. Public inquiries are promised but seldom released. Almost all such matters are swept under the rug.
Almost every day there are news of terrorists killed or arrested, but there has been no attempt to systematically tabulate their ages, education, origins, family backgrounds, occupations to observe some social patterns of their behaviour. Our officials are content to give minimal information about individuals and are quick to register FIR to end the matter. These are just a few examples of how non-objective thinking affects public policies.
There are no comprehensive social science studies of terrorism, crimes, regional inequality, sectarianism. All are dealt on the bases of some leaders’ or administrators’ opinions. The point is that gathering objective facts and basing judgments and policies on them are not the priorities of decision-makers as well as the general public. In this environment, conspiracy theories thrive.
Pakistan has become a low trust society and poorly functioning state.
Actual conspiracies and conspiracy theories have led to the inability to meet national challenges and people’s needs. Erstwhile East Pakistan (Bangladesh) eventually broke away from Pakistan (1971) after years of Bengalis being viewed as influenced by India and disloyal to the national project. A similar conspiracy idea of sabotage and disloyalty is now impeding the resolution of Balochs’ and Pukhtuns’ demands for fair treatment. Problems of economic development, administrative corruption, intelligence agencies’ interventions, managed elections instead of being empirically investigated and acted upon are explained as enemies’ and traitors’ actions or propaganda. When a murder or protest is immediately attributed to foreign agents by commissioners and ministers, proper investigation becomes unnecessary.
Everyday life is also riven with suspicions and low expectations of a fair deal, without personal connections. It is as true of commercial dealings as of public services. In almost every gathering, the stories of bribery, incompetence and malfeasance are exchanged with gusto. Pakistan has become a low trust society and poorly functioning state.
The present time is bringing up contradictions of years of political manipulation and the military’s interventions.
These are cumulative outcomes of our long disregard of facts and habits of thinking in personalized terms. Conspiracy theories have taken a toll, we may recognize it or not.
Before concluding, l want to address an argument that some may make. Aren’t conspiracy theories practiced even in enlightened western countries? Yes, in the US President Kennedy’s assassination and the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Centre, for example, spawned mini conspiracy theory industries. Books were written, coincidental facts were linked together to build up explanations’ contrary to official narratives and public reports. Yet they remained a sort of mystery stories - offering speculative accounts titillating readers and selling books. The trust in institutions and their narratives was not eroded. But a new sentiment is taking root. The rise of Trump is giving a stimulus to conspiracy theories. It is a growing concern that his rise will do long range damage to habits of objectivity and people’s trust in institutions in the US. Is this the beginning of the age of irrationality!