When President Nixon took office, his foremost priority was to end the Vietnam conflict, which was also the epicentre of his campaign rhetoric. He asked his National Security Advisor, Henry Kissinger, to portray him as a madman who could go to extremes to achieve his foreign policy goals. He explicitly told Henry in a meeting, “I like being the madman, Bob.” This approach was different from that of his predecessors in foreign policy, and it compelled the Vietnamese to come to the negotiating table, ultimately leading the U.S. to withdraw its forces from Vietnam.
Since then, the “madman” approach has become an instrumental tool for world leaders to achieve their goals by being unpredictable, unconventional, and complex—whether it is Russia’s Putin, North Korea’s Kim, China’s Mao, Iraq’s Saddam, or many others, they have all tried to be “madmen” to sway global politics. However, their aggression was often predictable and calculated, but one president who completely embodies the aura of a madman is the 47th U.S. president-elect, Donald Trump.
John Mearsheimer, a distinguished professor and proponent of Realism, recently described Trump as a unique character in U.S. political history. He stated, albeit satirically, that President Trump is a “delightful person” as his actions cannot be predicted by anyone, not even his own office.
At parts, it is true; during Trump’s first term in office, reports surfaced that North Korea had developed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which were believed to have the potential to reach the U.S. Trump famously used the phrase “fire and fury” against North Korea in response to the perceived threats. But in an utterly bold move, Trump met with Kim in Singapore in 2018, becoming the first-ever U.S. president to meet with North Korea’s autocratic supremo. Later, Trump said that Kim wrote him some lovely letters, and they both “fell in love.”
The unpredictability of Trump has always been incomprehensible. The leaders of countries have been intimidated by him, instilling curiosity in their minds about how this mercurial leader thinks
In the same year, 2018, Trump initiated a trade war with China, imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods and claiming that Chinese trade practices had significantly damaged U.S. businesses. China replied with high tariffs as well. The trade war escalated when Trump took a harsh stance against Chinese tech companies, particularly Huawei, claiming that Chinese tech industries posed national security threats. Ultimately, his administration placed Huawei on a trade blacklist and explicitly restricted U.S. companies from sharing technological components with Chinese industries. However, notwithstanding his hostility toward China, in 2020, his administration signed a deal with Beijing called the ‘Phase One’ trade deal, in which China agreed to purchase $200 billion worth of U.S. goods annually for two years (2021-2022). It was meant to lessen the trade deficit between both countries.
The unpredictability of Trump has always been incomprehensible. The leaders of countries have been intimidated by him, instilling curiosity in their minds about how this unpredictable leader thinks. They want to cooperate with him more, hoping to navigate the trajectory of the future of the world.
This peculiar nature of Trump is the reason Putin didn’t orchestrate a war in Ukraine during the former’s first term in office. Apart from Trump’s criticism of NATO, calling it obsolete and questioning its relevance, he also emphasised cutting its defence budget. Putin hesitated to react to NATO’s expansion on its eastern flank because he couldn’t predict how the Madman leader in the Oval Office would react. He took his time, and when the administration shifted from Republicans to Democrats and the reactions of the new administration seemed predictable to him, he unleashed a full-scale war on Ukraine.
Recently, Putin stated that if Trump had won a second consecutive term, the war would not have happened. The president-elect has also previously boasted about this claim, often saying he is the president who never led the country into war. Unlike his predecessors, who adhered to the American ideology of promoting democracy and human rights, Trump is largely indifferent to these ideals. Instead, he is a transactional leader who prioritises quid pro quo.
He has shown no interest in combating communism or the one-party system in China, nor the authoritarian federation of Russia. His bellicosity toward them is not driven by America’s ideology of capitalist democracy. He is more focused on integration, and his actions are driven by the economic interests of his country. Having said that, Trump’s presence in the office has already caused significant chaos amongst U.S. allies to whom the U.S. provides defence, which entails significant actors like Ukraine and South Korea.
Before taking office, Trump emphasised that Ukraine would need to pay more if it required additional defense support. Subsequently, the ongoing political turmoil in South Korea since the impeachment of its president has instilled fear that Trump would take advantage of this situation and seek more transactions for U.S. bases in South Korea, which deter significant threats from North Korea and other foes.
At the same time, where he openly portrayed himself as a madman world leader and his fervent stance against wars, he pledged his support for Israel. He, in his first week in office, authorised the release of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel, which were delayed by the Biden administration due to concerns over the potential impact on civilians. Furthermore, Trump expressed his concerns over the Israel-Gaza peace deal, calling it fragile and temporary. Such actions and approaches by the President-elect make him the real madman in the world’s recent history.
The next four years for the world will be highly uncertain. Trump’s administration will alter the geopolitical landscape for better or worse, only time will tell. But for America’s adversaries, it could be an opportunity to exert more influence on the world stage. For world leaders and political commentators, Trump will likely cause a severe headache because of his unconventional approach and unpredictable moves.