Why Sheikh Hasina's Regime Could Not Survive

About 400,000 graduates every year have to compete for about 3,000 government jobs in a country faced with severe unemployment

Why Sheikh Hasina's Regime Could Not Survive

On the 15th of August 1975, Bangladesh became the scene of a bloodbath as the father of the nation Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was brutally assassinated by a group of army officers. The entire family of Sheikh Mujib was massacred, all 17 members were killed. Fortunately for her, the present Bangladeshi Prime Minister and her sister Sheikh Rehana escaped death, as she was travelling abroad. Born on 28 September 1947, Sheikh Hasina has been the tenth Prime Minister of Bangladesh - from June 1996 to July 2001 and again since January 2009. She has served for a total of 20 years, and as such was the longest surviving Prime Minister in the history of Bangladesh. In fact, she is now ranked as the world’s longest serving female head of government. This indomitable lady is also one of the most hounded and vilified heads of government in the world. Until this week, she had managed to steer her political career even against deadly and unsurmountable odds – until she faced the challenge of student protesters over the past few weeks.

Her vengeful and uncompromising reaction to the crisis misjudged the mood among a large segment of the population—and her own hold on reality and power

During her long rule, Sheikh Hasina faced national and international criticism. Human Rights Watch (HRW) documented widespread enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings under her government. Many politicians and journalists have been systematically and judicially punished for challenging her views. In 2021, Reporters without Borders gave a negative assessment of Hasina's media policy for curbing press freedom in Bangladesh since 2014. Hasina was among Time's 100 most influential people in the world in 2018, and among the 100 most powerful women in the world by Forbes magazine in 2015, 2018, and 2022.

The intensity and ferocity of the national crisis today is something never seen before in the turbulent history of Bangladesh. This unprecedented wave of demonstrations during the rule of Sheikh Hasina started when university students came out on the streets to protest against job quotas in the civil service. They clashed with police and the ruling party’s thuggish student wing and seized control of the streets of the teeming capital, Dhaka. They also stormed the state broadcaster, while violence spread to nearly half the country’s 64 districts. In response, the government sent in armed troops and, and from 20 July, imposed a nationwide curfew enforced by a shoot-to-kill order. It also shut down internet services, cutting off a country of 171 million from the world and from itself until a partial restoration on 23 July.

The harsh and draconian actions by the government resulted in the death of hundreds, and thousands more have been grievously injured. The student unions and the people of Bangladesh were now baying for blood, and went on to demand the immediate resignation of Hasina. The authorities charged at least 61,000 people over the recent days’ violence, including many from a beleaguered opposition that Sheikh Hasina had always blamed for everything that goes wrong in the country.

Even as the clampdowns on communications and movement threatened the economy, the prime minister only called angrily for retribution against the “criminals” behind the protests. But her vengeful and uncompromising reaction to the crisis misjudged the mood among a large segment of the population—and her own hold on reality and power. With an intervention by the military, her government’s fate was sealed and she was forced to resign.

The present mass movement erupted in June when the high court ordered the government to restore the 30% of jobs in government service for family members of the veterans of who took part in the 1971 civil war with the Pakistan army. This is a particularly egregious example of ‘jobs for the boys’: consider that the roots of the ruling party, the Awami League (AL), are in the independence movement and that Sheikh Hasina makes much of being the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who headed the movement and was the new country’s leader until his assassination in 1975. This is seen as a great benefit for the Awami League members and currently many young Bangladeshis do not have jobs, so it has created great resentment in the youth.

About 400,000 graduates every year have to compete for about 3,000 government jobs in a country faced with severe unemployment. The Supreme Court of Bangladesh has already over ruled the lower court and the SC has cut the quota to 5% but this too has not satisfied the rampaging students. All job opportunities in the country run through the ruling Awami League. In the universities and on the streets of the country the Awami League student wing the Bangladesh Chhatra League is the violent and vigilante force. On campus, it controls not just student politics but even the distribution of scarce rooms for undergraduates. It is deeply despised. Calls for it to step back – along with the Sheikh Hasina regime itself – proved impossible to quash.

During her long rule, she as executed huge infrastructure development projects and took the country to new and impressive heights of economic development. Yet she has faced accusations of rigging in elections, destroying state institutions, tolerating rampant corruption and giving a free hand to her Awami League leaders and workers. In the final hours of her rule, Hasina Wajid responded by calling her opponents “Razakars” or those who collaborated with the Pakistan Army during the war of independence in 1971.

It appears that Sheikh Hasina Wajid closed her eyes to reality, bringing her closer to her eventual downfall. The former Prime Minister faced a critical choice. She could either continue down the authoritarian path, at the cost of further unrest and international isolation. Or she could have embraced political competition, which, while challenging, could have improved her legacy and Bangladesh's democratic future.

But she made her choice and ended up leaving the country ignominiously in a helicopter – leaving Bangladesh’s further transition in uncertainty and her own legacy in tatters.