A few months ago, I had an extensive conversation with Barrister Sheikh. My questions and his answers appear below.
Since October 1958, Pakistan has experienced several coups and has been governed through martial law. The Supreme Court has often validated martial law soon after it was imposed but condemned it soon after it was withdrawn. When will the Supreme Court truly become an independent branch of government?
The Supreme Court declared General Yahya’s martial law illegality and called him a usurper, but this was announced a month after the usurper arrested the leader of the party that had won the general elections, handed over power to the leader of the party that had come in second, and opted to be pensioned off. The Supreme Court made amends in 2009 when its judges expressed remorse over what the court had done in the past.
Brookings’ Stephen Cohen famously said the army is the largest political party in Pakistan. Do you agree?
No. Under the Constitution, it is mandated to take an oath to stay out of politics. Any General taking part in politics violates his oath, exposing himself to penalties in the Pakistan Army Act, 1952. General Pervez Musharraf was given the death sentence for subverting the Constitution on the 3rd of November 2007.
Since the end of Musharraf’s era in 2008, the army has not explicitly ruled the country through martial law. But it has remained the dominant institution. It decides who will run the country and how that person will run it. Will that ever change?
This phenomenon betrays the weakness of the political forces in Pakistan whose houses have been divided in part because they cannot sit together. They cannot take a strong stance on their commitment to the Constitution. This is a weakness not of the armed forces but of the political institutions.
Was Imran Khan elected in 2018 with the connivance of the army? He said on multiple occasions that the army and the civilian government were on the “same page.” At some point, Imran Khan turned on the army. He lost his majority in parliament and was forced out. Did the US play a role in his ouster?
In Pakistan, various Prime Ministers including Imran Khan have propagated the “same page” theory time and again. Imran Khan was placed in office with the help of generals like Bajwa and Faiz Hameed. The blame does not just fall on the army. It also falls on the political leadership. I don’t think the US played any role in the ouster of Imran Khan.
I am a born optimist. While we are passing through a roller-coaster ride of transition, I do hope and expect a bright future will dawn upon us some day
Had Imran been allowed to complete his term in office, would he have lost the election because his performance had been dismal?
Yes. If he had not been removed through parliamentary means, he would have probably lost the elections because of his poor performance.
Pakistan has a large army that is roughly half the size of the Indian army. For defensive purposes, an army that is the third of the Indian army would suffice, especially since Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Should Pakistan reduce the size of the army, freeing up resources to be spent on human development?
Pakistan army’s strength is approximately 660,000 whereas the Indian army’s strength is approximately 1,475,000. Pakistan is facing tremendous challenges on its long porous border with Afghanistan. Pro-enemy agents are fully operational in Balochistan. It’s most unfortunate that Pakistan, a poor country, must maintain such a large army. I think it is for the parliament to determine the size of the army to defend the frontiers and to maintain law and order in the country.
Many army chiefs have had their terms extended. This behavior is far more frequent than seen in other armies. Will this pattern ever change?
I think we must discontinue this practice of extensions. It is most unfortunate that regardless of the statutory tenure period of three years, we keep on giving extensions to the army chief. It is time to stop indulging in practices which are inimical to the country.
Pakistan’s international debt continues to grow. Exports are trumped by imports. Tax revenues are trumped by government spending. The country continues to borrow money to finance its lavish expenditures, especially on the military, and service debt. The lenders range from the IMF to China to the Gulf Arab states. Is this economic model sustainable?
It is correct that the debt continues to grow, and exports are trumped by imports. It is also true that tax revenues are trumped by government spending, and the country continues to borrow money from abroad to finance its lavish expenditures. This practice must come to an end.
The political leadership must take responsibility for what ails the country. We have a net national grid capacity of 22,000 MW of electricity, and we are paying for it by buying power from IPPs, with whom we have signed 30-year contracts. Most owners of the generating plants are the bigwigs, not the army generals. So, I don’t think by targeting the institution of the armed forces, we are doing any service to the truth and proper understanding of the issue.
Pakistan has had a troubled political history since its inception. Matters came to a head when it splintered into two in 1971. Some analysts contend that its survival proves its resilience. Others hold a contrary opinion. What do you think is the likely future of Pakistan? A bright future, which sees a remarkable turnaround in the country’s fortunes? More of the same? Or a dim future that sees an economic meltdown and a breakdown of the political order? Can the strategic culture be changed for the better?
I am a born optimist. While we are passing through a roller-coaster ride of transition, I do hope and expect a bright future will dawn upon us some day. Then we will witness a remarkable turnaround in the country’s fortunes.