The twilight of Democracy coincided with the dawn of the age of strongmen. Unable to deliver on the promises; liberal democracy backslid in the 2000s - the era of democratic recession. The end of history happened, but not in the same direction as was envisioned by Francis Fukuyama; the elections of 2016 brought a populist in heartland of the liberal democracy. It was not democracy hitting back when Biden took over, rather it was Trump’s failure to perform and fulfill his promises of making ‘America Great Again’ - the fate of every populist.
Today, once again, American voices are not being translated into policies, public frustration could vent out as Trump's election as the 47th president of the United States of America, which will be another blow to democracy, liberalism, and US advocacy for liberal values; Trump's arrival is a trump of doom for the world.
Taiwan’s Trump syndrome: Fear of abandonment
China is getting anxious about its 'Great Chinese Renewal,’ of annexing and integrating Taiwan back into mainland China. As Xi Jinping said: ‘This historic mission cannot be passed down from generation to generation’. With Davidson's timeline of 2027 approaching, Taiwan appears as weak as ever if it were not for the US' security Umbrella. In pursuit of his 'America first' policy, Trump will surely follow Fhat he had envisioned for the 'shit-hole states' in his last election; No free-riding.
Under Trump, US foreign policy will be either taking an off-shore balancing approach or special engagement, reducing American troops and its presence in the South China Sea, as was evident in his last election when he called on his allies to pay for their security liabilities or face the blow. If the US took an exit from the South China Sea it would disturb the dual deterrence in the region prompting China to make an attempt to annex Taiwan, or a pre-emptive action by Taiwan taking a step toward a formal statehood or independence prompting China to attack in response. Taiwan is protected by the US under law, but Trump earlier said that Taiwan should pay the US for its security and concluded that US security assurance for Taiwan in transactional terms saying: ‘We are not different from an insurance company’.
It certainly is a worrying situation for Taiwan, as any uncalculated move from either side could topple the delicate balance of power in the region whose ripple effect will continue to Japan and the Korean peninsula as well.
US abandonment of Ukraine will produce a Domino effect that would hurt the credibility of the US to protect its allies leading the NATO and non-NATO states to think about their alliance and reliance, eschewing other options for security in case of US’ wild abandonment
Backing off from Ukraine: A canary in the coal mine for NATO
During his election campaign, Trump was seen blaming the Biden administration for 'feeding Zelenskyy money and munitions like no country has ever seen before' and called Zelenskyy, ‘the greatest salesman on the earth’. At another rally, Trump even refused to support Ukraine by saying it’s already demolished. He also suggested Ukraine cede its territory to Russia and make concessions while it can. It’s likely that he will end up stopping its aid to NATO for Ukraine, and would not stop only there.
US' abandonment of Ukraine will produce a domino effect that would hurt the credibility of the US to protect its allies leading the NATO and non-NATO states to think about their alliance and reliance, eschewing other options for security in case of US’ wild abandonment. It could be a huge blow to NATO as Trump called it 'obsolete' and 'unnecessary' and lashed out, saying he would ‘encourage Russia’ to attack any of the US’ NATO allies whom he considers to have not met their financial obligations and this time the US could be buck-passing it all onto Europe. With Europe having no security of its own, too weak to defend itself, it would be left all alone at the mercy of the Great Bear's wrath. As for Russia, its expansionist agenda probably won't stop at Ukraine either.
Israel lobby and giveaways: A possibility for a new nuclear flashpoint in the Middle East
Despite his claims of being a master in the ‘art of deals, Trump proved to be a master in the ‘art of giveaways’ when it comes to the Middle East. Despite having a lever to force Israel into peace and settlement, in his last term, Trump offered a Jerusalem giveaway to Israel on the insistence of Sheldon Adelson for financing his campaign, brokered recognition deals with several Arab states on behalf of Israel and even called off the nuclear deal with Iran on Israel’s insistence.
The US has enjoyed primacy in the world order since the end of the Cold War and has been the defender and voucher of liberal values all over the world using diplomacy, force, intervention, sanctions, and even invasion when needed
The US has already failed to bring peace in the Middle East and the war continues. With Netanyahu’s best friend Trump in the white house again, the war won’t stop but would rather spill out as he asked Netanyahu to ‘do what is necessary’. An independent state of Palestine and the Palestine issue at large could be the slogans echoed in the past as Trump's and the US' unquestioned support to Israel pours in and pushes Iran towards nuclearising, if it already hasn’t, to deter Israel. With Iran’s nuclearisation, the Arab states would have to either rely on Israel for security or get nukes themselves. The Middle East could be a new nuclear cascade, and in no time Saudi Arabia and other Arab states could be relying on Pakistan for its nuclear technology and a new age of nuclearisation would begin.
It could herald a dangerous age, where proxies like Hamas, and Hezbollah while terrorist organisations like ISIS, and the TTP could finally get their hands on nuclear weapons, and the world might have to declare a new nuclear flash point in the Middle East. Besides that, the loss of human lives in Gaza would eventually give rise to feelings of resentment and anti-American sentiments in the Muslim world. A new wave of terrorism and extremism might start, whose epicentre will be the Middle East spreading all over the world once again, not sparing even the US itself. It could be all down the hill from there.
End of US primacy: Rise of new hegemons in Europe and Asia
Trump already stripped the Trans-Pacific Partnership in his last tenure and hurled on all those agreements that he believed did not benefit the US, and whose costs are more than the benefits that the US might accrue. As a result, Chinese Influence will rise in the region. With the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) already underway, China could be consolidating its hegemony once and for all in Asia.
With Trump's minimum presence and no-engagement policy, the US absence will be filled by a Chinese influence soon after. If Trump decides to finish ‘the unfinished tasks’ during his last term, the overworked superpower could get rid of its security liabilities once and for all, throwing Taiwan under the bus, compromising position of South Korea and Japan in the region. China will march down, and with no one to balance its power in the region, it could pick up fights with India over disputed territories in the Himalayan region as well.
In the same line, NATO's abandonment could send Europe back to the dark ages. European states are too weak to defend themselves against Putin's attack. A new pecking order would be established in Europe once again with Russia at its top. With US abandonment, many of the states might reconsider their NATO membership, either forsake it or bandwagon with Russia instead. “With no check on Russia, Warsaw could be the next Putingrad”. With the UK already out and increasing French discontent and other dissenting voices rattling loudly, NATO could finally be dismantled and there will be no one to stop Russia from expanding more into the West.
The US has enjoyed primacy in the world order since the end of the Cold War and has been the defender and voucher of liberal values all over the world using diplomacy, force, intervention, sanctions, and even invasion when needed. Trump's election as the new president of the US in this rather Uni-Multipolar world, his isolationist cum realist approach towards US Foreign policy could be the end of the history of US primacy and the start of a new one where the US will still be influential and a strong stakeholder but limited only to the Western Hemisphere- revert to the Monroe doctrine. Asia and Europe could be moving toward having their masters and some middle powers bandwagoning with or against these un-restrained states. Nevertheless, If Trump wins, Asia and Europe better brace for a period of turbulence.