In a stunning political comeback, Donald Trump has won the 2024 US presidential election, defying polls and pundits alike. His victory marks the first time in two decades that a Republican has won the popular vote by a significant margin. This is more than a personal triumph for Trump; it underscores the resurgence of populism and the deepening political polarisation within the nation.
The 2024 election was not just a referendum on Trump's leadership but also a broader rejection of the political establishment, particularly the Democrats. Amid soaring inflation, high interest rates, and the economic instability that followed the 2022 Ukraine war, Trump's message of economic revival struck a chord with voters in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Economic strain as a catalyst for change
The economic landscape of 2024 was marked by distress for many working-class Americans. Between 2019 and 2023, the consumer price index for food jumped by 25%, the highest increase since the late 1970s. The rise in food prices alone pushed 11% of disposable income towards food purchases in 2022-23, the largest share in three decades. Meanwhile, gas prices rose by 50% over four years, and real estate costs reached unsustainable levels. According to Zillow, the typical monthly mortgage payment on a US home nearly doubled between January 2020 and March 2024, surging by 96%.
These economic pressures were felt acutely by the middle-class and working-class voters, whose struggles were often masked by the booming stock market and political rhetoric that did not resonate with their lived realities. As The Financial Times noted, the hardships caused by the energy crisis — along with the inflationary pressures on essential goods and services — fuelled a populist backlash. This climate of economic discontent was fertile ground for Trump, who deftly capitalised on voter dissatisfaction by promising a return to a more prosperous, pre-pandemic economy.
Trump's call to reduce foreign entanglements also resonated with an electorate tired of costly military adventures. With only 4% of voters citing foreign policy as their top issue, Trump's "America First" mantra, emphasising economic over military priorities, became a significant part of his appeal. His critique of Washington's overreach abroad, coupled with his promise to focus on domestic issues, reflected the growing fatigue of the American public with endless wars.
A populist resurgence
Trump's 2024 victory was built on the same populist foundation that powered his rise in 2016: a promise to "drain the swamp," revive American manufacturing, and challenge the elites. His populist appeal was enhanced by his alliances with powerful figures, including Elon Musk, who, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, donated nearly $119 million to a political action committee (PAC) supporting Trump. Musk's support raised eyebrows, particularly given his controversial stance on social media, where he has repeatedly shared misinformation and extremist content. Despite the controversies surrounding Musk, his financial backing played a pivotal role in Trump's political mobilisation.
For Trump's supporters, his victory is seen as the reclamation of American greatness, a pushback against an overreaching liberal agenda. For his critics, however, it represents a further erosion of democratic norms and a dangerous slide toward authoritarianism
But Trump's base expanded beyond his traditional supporters. His outreach to Latino voters was especially successful. Winning 54% of the Latino male vote — a significant jump from 2016 — underscores how Trump's brand of economic nationalism is gaining traction across different demographic groups. Promises to cut taxes, reduce regulations, and boost domestic energy production resonated with working-class voters struggling with rising costs.
At the same time, Trump leaned heavily into the culture wars. His portrayal of himself as the defender of "traditional American values" against what he decried as the overreach of "woke" politics struck a nerve with voters disillusioned by rapid cultural changes. From gender identity to racial justice movements, Trump framed the cultural divide as one of existential importance, winning support from those who felt alienated by shifting social norms.
A nation divided
Despite his resounding victory, Trump inherits a deeply fractured nation. The Biden administration's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic turmoil, and racial tensions further divided the country. Biden's failure to unite the nation — his inability to bridge political and ideological gaps — left a vacuum, one that Trump eagerly filled by promising to reverse what he described as the progressive establishment's direction.
The 2024 election was a stark reflection of the polarisation gripping American society. For Trump's supporters, his victory is seen as the reclamation of American greatness, a pushback against an overreaching liberal agenda. For his critics, however, it represents a further erosion of democratic norms and a dangerous slide toward authoritarianism. Kamala Harris's concession speech was measured and dignified. She stated: "While I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fuelled this campaign. We will continue to wage this fight in the voting booth, in the courts, and in the public square... Sometimes, the fight takes a while. That doesn't mean we won't win."
Her tone contrasted sharply with Trump's post-2020 rhetoric, which cast doubt on the integrity of the electoral process. Trump's repeated claims of electoral fraud, despite a lack of evidence, have deepened mistrust in the democratic system. This ideological divide has only grown since the 2020 election, as Trump's supporters continue to question the legitimacy of Biden's victory. These political fissures, fuelled by misinformation, are likely to have long-lasting consequences for US political culture.
Legal troubles and political mobilisation
Trump's victory came despite ongoing legal challenges, including two presidential impeachments, his criminal conviction, and a litany of legal battles. These hurdles, which many believed would sink his campaign, instead became rallying cries. His supporters saw him as a victim of a political witch hunt, reinforcing the narrative that he was the only candidate capable of challenging a corrupt Washington establishment. His ability to turn legal troubles into a platform for political mobilisation was instrumental in securing his win.
Trump's scepticism of international alliances, his disdain for global institutions, and his hardline approach to trade and security issues will continue to shape US foreign policy
Trump's legal issues have also bolstered his outsider image. His battle against the system — whether through impeachment, criminal trials, or civil lawsuits — transformed him into a figure of resistance. For many, this narrative of victimhood, coupled with Trump's defiant stance against the "deep state," played a significant role in galvanising his base.
A divided mandate
While Trump may view his 2024 victory as a mandate, the reality is more complex. The election saw one of the highest turnouts in recent history, underscoring the contentious nature of the race. Trump's base is energised, but his victory is deeply rooted in polarisation. The issues that dominate the US political landscape — immigration, abortion, climate change, race — are not likely to be resolved in Trump's favour. His presidency will likely intensify these divides, creating a political landscape defined by ideological fragmentation.
The Republican Party, now fully reshaped in Trump's populist image, faces a future where the demands of his supporters will likely dominate the party's agenda. The GOP's new Senate majority gives Trump greater leverage to enact his legislative agenda and secure critical judicial appointments, further consolidating his grip on American politics. But this victory also creates challenges for the GOP: Can it balance Trump's populist, divisive appeal with the desire for a more traditional, less combative vision?
Global consequences
Trump's 2024 victory will have far-reaching implications beyond US borders. A second term would likely see the continuation of his "America First" foreign policy — a rejection of multilateralism and a pivot towards neo-isolationism. Trump's scepticism of international alliances, his disdain for global institutions, and his hardline approach to trade and security issues will continue to shape US foreign policy.
Relations with China, already tense, will remain a central issue. Trump's hardline stance on trade and military posture could escalate the US-China rivalry, destabilising global markets and threatening regional security. Trade wars, tariffs, and supply chain disruptions could deepen, particularly with China and Europe. Developing nations could find themselves further marginalised as the US prioritises domestic economic interests over international cooperation.
Trump's populist rhetoric has inspired similar movements worldwide, emboldening right-wing leaders in Europe, Latin America, and beyond. In countries like Hungary, Brazil, and Russia, Trump's victory provides further validation of nationalist, authoritarian ideologies. Yet, his disdain for traditional diplomacy and human rights could sour relations with democratic allies and further polarise the international community.
Pakistan would be better served by improving trade relations with the US and leveraging its connections with Saudi Arabia to strengthen ties with the West
Trump's foreign policy could also strain NATO and complicate efforts to address conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Africa. His reluctance to intervene militarily abroad could shift the US toward a more isolationist approach, with significant consequences for international security.
Pakistan's perspective
For Pakistan, Trump's return offers an opportunity to recalibrate its foreign policy. Pakistan's current relationship with the US, largely shaped by security concerns, should evolve toward a more pragmatic, economically driven partnership. Rather than focusing on arms supplies, Pakistan would be better served by improving trade relations with the US and leveraging its connections with Saudi Arabia to strengthen ties with the West.
Pakistan's over-reliance on China, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has led to debt burdens and limited economic diversification. In the face of changing global dynamics, Pakistan must recalibrate its foreign policy to reduce dependence on China and foster better relations with the US and Europe.
Conclusion
Trump's 2024 victory marks a defining moment for both the US and the world. His populist agenda, while resonating deeply with American voters, carries significant risks for global stability. As Trump continues to reshape the American political landscape, the implications for international relations, trade, and security will be profound.
In the words of Georgetown University's Charles Kupchan, Trump's pragmatic readiness to work across ideological lines may lead to unexpected outcomes, especially if US foreign policy shifts toward a more isolationist stance. However, whether this shift leads to a more peaceful world or further fragmentation of global alliances remains uncertain.
As the world watches closely, Trump's second term promises to reshape not only the future of US politics but the trajectory of global geopolitics for years to come.