After the unprecedented tit-for-tat exchange of attacks in January 2024 between Pakistan and Iran, immediate de-escalation underscores the importance for both countries of maintaining good relations with each other. Relations between Pakistan and Iran have experienced ups and downs, but historical, cultural, and religious ties have helped bring them closer. However, current developments in geopolitical shifts and regional dynamics compel both Iran and Pakistan to engage in cooperative endeavours. Despite occasional tensions and diverging interests, the strategic imperatives and mutual benefits of collaboration increasingly necessitate that both nations overlook minor differences, foster mutual coordination, and work on confidence-building measures (CBMs). Therefore, cooperation between Pakistan and Iran on the following three fronts — transborder terrorism, their stance on Afghanistan, and China's influence — is inevitable.
First, the transborder terrorism issue between Pakistan and Iran primarily revolves around militant groups operating across their shared border, leading to security concerns for both nations. Various Baloch separatist groups operate in the region, advocating for greater autonomy or independence for Balochistan, which extends across parts of both Iran and Pakistan. Supporting these groups benefits neither country because they share a common agenda of establishing Greater Balochistan, which poses a threat to both states. To ensure border security and prevent transborder terrorist activities, which are major concerns for both sides, collaboration at the military and administrative levels to curb the perpetrators is indispensable. The region's underdevelopment significantly contributes to its susceptibility to terrorism. Pakistan and Iran should initiate developmental projects in their respective provinces to alleviate the sense of deprivation among the Baloch people. It is essential for both nations to collaborate on improving border management and tackling the associated terrorist groups effectively.
The second compelling factor is the current scenario in Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover. Prior to the Taliban's control, both Pakistan and Iran had diverging goals: Pakistan supported the Taliban, while Iran supported the Northern Alliance, also known as the United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan. However, the dynamics have now changed. The Taliban are not responding as Pakistan expected, prompting both Pakistan and Iran to collaborate to ensure security imperatives, as both states face the common issue of armed groups using Afghan soil against their territories. In early 2024, Iran was tragically targeted by a brutal ISIS terrorist attack, resulting in the loss of at least 84 lives. Similarly, Pakistan has faced comparable challenges. In July 2023, an ISIS-linked group claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing that killed over 50 people in the northwestern Bajaur district. Pakistan and Iran remain vigilant against various terrorist groups, regardless of their ideological or ethnic backgrounds, as these groups pose significant national security concerns.
America's strict policy towards Iran and China also serves as a converging point, bringing these countries closer to each other
Third, China's role is becoming significant in the region, as both Pakistan and Iran are part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. China's active role as a peaceful mediator, exemplified by its efforts in normalising relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, represents a significant step forward. This development is crucial for Pakistan, which values maintaining positive relationships with both nations. The trilateral cooperation among Pakistan, Iran, and China has enough potential to overcome the minor differences between Iran and Pakistan. Since Iran is sanctioned by the USA, China, a rising power, is highly dependent on Iran for its energy needs. Thus, America's strict policy towards Iran and China also serves as a converging point, bringing these countries closer to each other. However, Iran has always shown a deep interest in joining the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) because it envisions a central role in the development of energy supply and infrastructure. Although some questions were raised about the development of Gwadar as a counterpart to the Iranian Chabahar port, Iran has stated that these ports are not rivals but sister ports. Iran is unconcerned about the deepening of Pakistan-China relations. However, Pakistan has some reservations with Iran regarding Indian involvement.
Some people often mention sectarian differences as a point of clash, noting that Pakistan has a Sunni majority population while Iran has a Shia majority. However, this issue is not as significant as portrayed. A survey conducted by the Pew Research Centre shows that the majority (69%) of Pakistanis support Iran despite these sectarian differences, viewing Iran as a beacon of resistance against the USA and Israel. Pakistan and Iran share many commonalities. For example, Persian was the official language during the Mughal Era of the Indian subcontinent. In Pakistan, Turko-Persian culture is dominant, and many writers, poets, and historians are acclaimed in both countries. Therefore, religion and culture are also points of convergence.
Pakistan's strategic geographical location offers a distinct advantage, positioning it as a bridge within the region. Despite the deep-rooted relations between Pakistan and Iran, which encompass religious, cultural, and linguistic ties, there remains untapped economic potential for collaboration between them. The establishment of the Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD) in 1964, which later led to the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) in 1985, demonstrates the potential for cooperation. During the recent visit of the late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, he urged boosting the economic volume of trade to $10 billion within the next five years, up from the current $2 billion. Pakistan is also seeking regional cooperation by deepening its ties with China, Turkey, Iran, and Russia. As a result of the global political shift from the USA to China, cooperation between regional states is inevitable.
Given the current developments and dynamics in the region, Pakistan and Iran should overcome past differences and prioritise cooperation in new domains. They have substantial potential to enhance collaboration, particularly in bolstering security, advancing economic interests, and fostering people-to-people exchanges through coordinated programmes.