In the shadows of the mighty Pir Panjal range, a tale of political resilience and regional identity unfolded in Jammu and Kashmir this week. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), despite its access to official machinery, substantial electoral weight (at least in other parts of the country) and strategic manoeuvrings, has failed yet again to secure a significant presence in the disputed Kashmir Valley and the Muslim majority region of Jammu in the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir.
In essence, the court-mandated elections in the state have given the BJP a rude awakening after it belligerently and unilaterally voided the special status of the region in 2019. They have also served as a stark reminder of the region's enduring spirit of autonomy and resistance to external dominance.
Votes speak louder
Historically, the BJP has struggled to establish a foothold in the predominantly Muslim regions of the disputed territory, an area with deep-rooted political and social complexities.
During the 2014 and 2019 elections, the party could not secure any seats in the Kashmir Valley - even as it attempted to play up the religious differences between resident communities following a strategy it had found successful within other parts of the country. And despite investing heavily in the region for nearly a decade to win favour, it failed to overturn its fortunes in the latest polls.
Out of the 90 seats up for grabs in the region, the BJP managed only 29. All the seats that the BJP won were confined to the Hindu belt of the Jammu region. Despite deploying 19 candidates across the valley, not one succeeded in their bid, underscoring the BJP's unpopularity. Most of them even lost their deposits.
The election's timing and conditions seemed to have been meticulously crafted to favour the ruling party, with delays, gerrymandering and a comprehensive redrawing of electoral boundaries—commonly known as delimitation—viewed as strategic attempts to tilt the electoral balance. Yet, despite these efforts and having full control over the state's administrative mechanisms, the party's iconic Lotus failed to bloom in the troubled Kashmiri soil.
It is important to remember that elections in the disputed region were less about immediate political gains and more a referendum on the centre's controversial decision to revoke Article 370 in August 2019. This decision stripped Jammu and Kashmir of their statehood and special status, reducing them to a union territory and thereby centralising control from New Delhi. The move, which abolished the region's special autonomous status, was met with international scrutiny and regional dismay.
In response, voters wielded their electoral power, not through aggressive protests or violence, but through the democratic expression of voting, showcasing a mature political strategy to reclaim their autonomy.
The overwhelming support for the National Conference (NC) and other regional parties indicated a collective rejection of the central government's policies.
The demands for autonomy and respect for regional identity will likely drive the political discourse during the new government's tenure
Under Farooq Abdullah and his son, the former chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir Omar Abdullah, the NC secured a substantial victory, winning 42 seats, reflecting a strong mandate for its stance on greater autonomy and opposition to the central government's interventions. Of the seats it won across the disputed valleys, seven were from the Hindu-dominated Jammu region.
Lacklustre Congress
Contrary to its surprising performance in May's national elections, the Congress party's lacklustre performance in Jammu and Kashmir was another subplot of this electoral drama. With a potential to act as a counterbalance to the BJP and ally with the NC to form a formidable opposition, Congress's tepid campaign and inability to galvanise the Hindu and secular votes only facilitated BJP's dominance in Jammu, albeit limited. The absence of prominent national figures such as Rahul Gandhi from the campaign trail in Jammu, coupled with a vague and uninspiring electoral narrative, left the Congress with a paltry six seats.
This underperformance underscored yet another missed opportunity to craft a compelling alternative to BJP's narrative, especially in regions grappling with economic slowdowns and social unrest due to the previous political upheavals.
Vibrant, fragmented, political landscape
The elections have also highlighted the deep-seated communal divisions within the disputed state, with Hindu-majority areas predominantly supporting the BJP, while the Muslim-majority regions, including pockets within the Jammu area, backed the NC and other regional entities. This polarisation is a concerning trend that underscores the need for inclusive governance that bridges communal divides rather than deepening them.
A significant number of independent candidates—349 out of a total of 873—reflects a vibrant, albeit fragmented, political landscape in Kashmir. Many of these candidates represented localised grievances and specific community interests, further illustrating the region's complex political tapestry.
The electorate's strategic voting pattern, particularly in rejecting opportunistic politics exemplified by candidates such as Engineer Rashid, indicated a sophisticated voter base keen on substantive rather than symbolic representation as had been witnessed in the past.
With the NC most likely to form a coalition government in the region, the party and its allies will be sizing up the daunting task of fulfilling their electoral promises and negotiating with New Delhi for restoring statehood and the possible reinstatement of Article 370. The demands for autonomy and respect for regional identity will likely drive the political discourse during the new government's tenure.
The operational dynamics between the newly elected government and the Lieutenant Governor, who holds significant powers under the union territory framework, will be pivotal in shaping the region's administrative efficacy and political stability.
Election results from Jammu and Kashmir are a resounding affirmation in favour of autonomy and a clear rebuke of BJP's policies in the region. As New Delhi and Srinagar navigate this complex political landscape, the aspirations of the people of Jammu and Kashmir for a dignified and autonomous existence remain at the heart of the discourse, defining the road ahead in this historically contentious and beautiful region.