It has been a decade of significant political shifts in the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir, marked by the Indian government's decision to revoke autonomy and divide the state into two centrally administered territories in August 2019. It was also followed by attempts at demographic and electoral reconfiguration, including the controversial gerrymandering of assembly seats.
Despite increasing the number of electoral seats in the less populated, Hindu-dominated Jammu region, the trends so far show that India's ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 's aspiration to install a Hindu chief minister seems more like a distant dream than an achievable goal.
In the politically sensitive landscape of Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP is encountering formidable challenges. The Congress party's increasing popularity in the disputed region and growing anti-incumbency sentiments against the BJP suggest that the ruling party may not only lose its grip in the Hindu-majority areas of Jammu but also fail to make significant inroads into the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley. Here, the BJP even struggles to find suitable candidates, reflecting its broader difficulties in the region.
Noted analyst and journalist Iftikhar Gilani says the fate of the BJP in the upcoming elections hinge crucially on the division of Muslim votes and the consolidation of the Hindu votes.
"However, as the political campaign progresses, it appears increasingly likely that the alliance between the National Conference and the Congress could be the ultimate beneficiary," he told The Friday Times.
But he hastened to add that Kashmir is known for throwing up surprises as it did in the Lok Sabha elections conducted a few months ago, where a jailed leader, Engineer Rashid, won the prestigious North Kashmir seat, beating former chief minister Omar Abdullah.
"Do not wholly rely on predictions, and be ready for surprises," he advised.
Yet, a pressing issue remains under intense debate: In this federal setup, will the elected representatives of Jammu and Kashmir be granted the autonomy to govern akin to other states?
The central government's decision on August 5, 2019, to abolish the region's special status and significantly empower the lieutenant governor has set a precedent that might undermine the elected government's authority.
This model parallels Delhi, where the elected government regularly clashes with the lieutenant governor, signalling potential future challenges in governing Jammu and Kashmir.
Silencing dissent
Over the past decade, since the last election was held, the central government has silenced all political dissent in Kashmir. It chose to rule through bureaucratic mechanisms led by the lieutenant governor rather than allow democratically elected governments to rule.
Former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah has been vocal about the indignity of seeking the lieutenant governor's approval for even minor administrative tasks. But, Abdullah later relented and announced he would participate in the polls and became the National Conference-Congress alliance's chief ministerial candidate
In the months leading up to the Supreme Court-mandated elections, the central government has decided to once again strengthen the lieutenant governor's powers by amending the Transaction of Business Rules.
These amendments enhance the Lieutenant Governor's authority over critical government areas such as police, public order, and bureaucratic appointments, leaving the elected government with virtually no say in these pivotal matters.
The reason such drastic and anti-democratic moves have been taken is that New Delhi anticipates a post-election scenario which resembles that in Delhi, where the Chief Minister and other senior officials face legal challenges and imprisonment on various charges—virtually paralysed—while the administration remains firmly in the hands of the lieutenant governor.
This centralisation of power ensures that the elected state government, despite being accountable to the people, is stripped of its ability to effect substantive changes.
Former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah of the National Conference has publicly refused to participate in what he views as a facade of the democratic process, and under such constrained conditions. He has been vocal about the indignity of seeking the lieutenant governor's approval for even minor administrative tasks. But, Abdullah later relented and announced he would participate in the polls and became the National Conference-Congress alliance's chief ministerial candidate.
Radha Kumar, a former interlocutor for Kashmir, argues that the central government's current approach to managing Jammu and Kashmir is unsustainable. She believes that a gradual restoration of statehood might occur, driven by pressures from within BJP's allies who find the current arrangement unacceptable.
Broader struggle
The upcoming elections in the disputed territory are not merely about who governs this troubled region but about the broader struggle for the restoration of statehood and democratic norms.
Both the Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the NC have promised to prioritise the restoration of statehood immediately after the elections, signalling a significant shift in their political strategy.
While the BJP and Congress are contesting for influence in Jammu, local parties continue to dominate the political narrative in Kashmir.
Home Minister Amit Shah indicated that the BJP's consolidation in Jammu and Kashmir is a long-term goal rather than an immediate possibility. He emphasised adopting a gradual approach to winning the hearts and minds of the Kashmiri people, a sentiment that resonates with the BJP's symbolic 'lotus' blooming naturally
The Election Commission's recent delimitation of constituencies has adjusted the electoral boundaries, such as which allocates more seats to Hindu-dominated Jammu than to the Kashmir region, which boasts a larger population overall and a concentration of Muslims.
This has sparked accusations of electoral manipulation designed to dilute Muslim votes, particularly in strategic border areas. Critics view these changes as a deliberate strategy to ensure the BJP wins a majority through gerrymandering.
Furthermore, since the revision of land laws, the curtailment of cross-border trade and the handing of contracts to outsiders, who now compete with local businessmen, the socio-economic grievances in Jammu have deepened and created a sense of betrayal amongst the region's business community.
Kumar says the narrative of regional disparity, where Kashmir was perceived as receiving preferential treatment over Jammu, no longer resonates with locals.
Recent militant attacks in Jammu have further eroded the credibility of claims made by the Modi government of having established peace in the region.
Despite the significant investments and efforts by the BJP and its ideological ally, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), they have struggled to establish a compelling narrative or substantial support base in the valley. If anything, they seem to have driven the wedge deeper.
In his recent statements, Home Minister Amit Shah indicated that the BJP's consolidation in Jammu and Kashmir is a long-term goal rather than an immediate possibility. He emphasised adopting a gradual approach to winning the hearts and minds of the Kashmiri people, a sentiment that resonates with the BJP's symbolic 'lotus' blooming naturally with the affection of the local populace.
For critics, however, this is an admission of their failure.
The upcoming elections in Jammu and Kashmir are, thus, more than a political event; they are pivotal moments for residents of the region to express their democratic aspirations and discontent against decades of central oversight.
As political analyst Ashok Bhan concludes, this election is a celebration of democracy, a long-awaited festival where the people of Kashmir assert their right to a free and fair electoral process. A right they were long denied and would continue to have been denied if it were not for the Supreme Court.
"Kashmir has come to terms with the fact that India is here to stay. Kashmiris have realised that if violence has to end then democracy is the only way to bring peace and also a form of resistance," he told The Friday Times.