With the fourth phase of polling taking place in India’s 2024 general elections, the picture of the elections seems starkly clear: BJP’s vote share is plummeting below 30% and thus dragging the party to 200 seats or an even lower tally. The results might even spring a surprise: the BJP scoring more than 300 seats, as the party has aimed to implement its agenda that is believed to be detrimental to the future of liberal democracy in India.
On Monday, all five southern states completed polling and the BJP, despite focusing most on these states, is staring at dim prospects. Srinagar, the capital of Jammu and Kashmir, also went to the polls. So did many seats in Maharashtra, West Bengal and UP.
Now 379 out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha have recorded their fate in the electronic ballots, with three more phases of voting still to commence.
Most poll observers and political pundits suggest that while many possibilities remain on the cards, one conclusion that is becoming clearer day by day is that a change of scene for the ruling BJP is guaranteed.
For many of them, the ‘Modi Raj’ is all but over.
A Change of Scenery
Rajdeep Sardesai, a leading TV journalist, says that if you had asked his opinion a month ago, he would say that it’s a done deal that the Modi-led BJP would score a hattrick of victories. “But now, low voter turnout in some parts of the country, ground-level anti-incumbency, the Prime Minister’s increasingly strident speeches, references to Adani, Ambani and black money, jittery markets have convinced more than a few people – mainly those who, dare I say, desperately want Prime Minister Modi to be defeated and see an end to ‘Modi Raj’ – that this election is turning out to be a bit like 2004 (when a popular PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee had to suffer setbacks despite a campaign modelled on his shining record),” he wrote in his analysis for India Today.
The bedrock of BJP’s support since 2014 have been subaltern groups like the OBCs. Several of their subgroups are slipping away from the party’s fold. PM Modi, an OBC himself, would have done himself a favor had he tried to woo them anew. Sadly, he strayed towards communal polarization, which has not yielded the desired results.
The change of scene, according to Sardesai, became evident when BJP’s slogan ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar (This time, we will cross the 400 mark) lost steam quite early in the polls, and the party resorted to rhetoric, most often targeting Muslims. Even that didn’t work for the party as fear-mongering about Muslims taking advantage of welfare meant for Hindu lower castes such as reservations no longer has a national resonance.
Results In The Fourth Phase
The fourth phase saw polling for 96 seats. If we look at the 2019 election results on these 96 seats in the fourth phase, the BJP was successful in winning 42 seats by contesting 89 seats, while Congress was successful in winning only 6 seats by contesting 85 seats. YSR Congress was successful in winning 22 seats, BRS 9 seats.
If we look at 2014, BJP had won 38 seats, whereas in 2009 it had won only 10 seats. At the same time, Congress could win only three seats in 2014 whereas in 2009 it had 50 seats. In this way, Congress got a big blow and BJP rose to the pinnacle from where it is likely to descend in 2024.
Interestingly, regional parties had performed better than Congress. YSR Congress, a breakaway faction of the party, won 22 seats in 2019 in Telangana. Similarly, Mamata’s Banerjee’s TMC had emerged as the sole challenger to BJP in West Bengal. SP and BSP combine had won 15 seats in UP.
Other parties got 17 seats.
Upheavals
Out of 96 seats, there are 21 seats which swing in every election. Apart from this, the difference of victory and defeat on 11 seats was less than one percent in the 2019 elections, indicating that any slight shift in voting patterns will change the fate of the polls. Overall, a change in 32 Lok Sabha seats can change the political game. In 2014, Congress lost power by losing these swing seats and the dominance of BJP and regional parties increased.
The 21 swing seats in the fourth phase of Lok Sabha elections include Nizamabad, Karimnagar, Amalapuram, Anakapalle, Anantapur, Bapatla, Eluru, Kakinada, Narsapuram, Rajahmundry, Munger, Khammam, Khvishakhapattanam, Vizianagaram, Khammam, Srinagar, Bhongir, Malkajgiri, Singhbhum, Adilabad, Burdwan-Durgapur and Kalahandi seats.
The seats where only a minimal margin of votes decided victory were Visakhapatnam, Bardhaman, Malkajgiri, Vijayawada, Zaheerabad, Srikakulam, Guntur, Bhongir, Aurangabad and Koraput seats. TDP won Vijayawada of Andhra Pradesh by 0.7 percent, Srikakulam by 0.6 percent and Guntur by 0.6 percent votes. Congress won the Malkajgiri seat of Telangana by 0.7 percent and Bhongir seat by a 0.4 percent margin. Other closely contested seats are Visakhapatnam, Guntur, Khunti, Aurangabad, Koraput, Zaheerabad and Bardhaman-Durgapur. BJP had won two seats and BRS and AIMIM were successful in winning 1 seat each.
PM Modi has surprisingly changed his tone. He unabashedly started targeting the Congress party, alleging that if it comes to power, it will hand over benefits of lower caste Hindus to Muslims who are infiltrators in India, have more children, etc.
In comparison to the 2019 elections, Congress seems to be fighting with more strength than before, while the BJP has also joined hands with the TDP in Andhra Pradesh. In this way, a political upheaval can be seen from Telangana to Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. While the challenge for BJP is to preserve its seats, the challenge for Congress is to increase its count. In such a situation, the way BJP was successful in winning all 13 seats in UP in 2019, it seems difficult that it will be able to repeat the feat.
Constitution versus Communalism
BJP ushered in its campaign with the “Modi Ki Guarantee” (Guarantee of PM Modi) and Viksit Bharat (Developed India) narratives. It was a clear-cut deviation of its previous Hindutva agenda, which promised the construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, the revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir and introduction of Uniform Civil Code. While the latter was still in its “to do” list, the party had primarily focused on PM Modi’s image as a development paragon.
Meanwhile, some of its leaders boasted that the party will march past 400 seats and that will enable the party to “twist the Constitution” to suit its long-promised “Hindu Raj.” It naturally didn’t bode well and the mood of the voters was reported to have swung sharply against the party.
PM Modi has surprisingly changed his tone. He unabashedly started targeting the Congress party, alleging that if it comes to power, it will hand over benefits of lower caste Hindus to Muslims who are infiltrators in India, have more children, etc. In his interview with the media, he tried to mollify Muslims.
This strategy, which is more confusing than convincing, has failed. Field reporters say that subaltern classes are seriously wary of BJP as they feel that any threat to the Constitution will lead to a catastrophe for them, as they are protected under the Constitution, which has allocated several benefits for them.
“The election seems to have become about the public versus the BJP. The bedrock of BJP’s support since 2014 have been subaltern groups like the OBCs. Several of their subgroups are slipping away from the party’s fold. PM Modi, an OBC himself, would have done himself a favor had he tried to woo them anew. Sadly, he strayed towards communal polarization, which has not yielded the desired results. Look at the PM's language now; he is making one absurd statement another in every political rally. He is clearly not his charismatic self. His charisma on wane spells doom for the BJP,” said the bureau chief of a popular Hindi daily, who is covering elections in Central India.