Amid the ongoing escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict, with Israel now dragging Lebanon into the war and missile strikes from Iran, the regional conflict is on the verge of becoming a global one. Given the nuclear weapons in the equation, a global conflict is something the world cannot afford. Israel’s religious fanaticism and violent actions backed by the US have positioned the world to witness a war between potentially nuclear armed states. Should this hypothetical situation become a reality, the repercussions could be immense. Regional players in general, and Turkey in particular, warned that the situation with Lebanon and Iran is different from the one in Gaza which has been under Israel’s siege for decades now. Given the global leadership already being contested, China’s posture in the current situation raises important questions.
China is recognised as an emerging global power, which, according to the US’ narrative, is challenging the US-dominated liberal order. On the contrary, China portrays its rise as peaceful. In the recent years, China has played a leadership role in several areas, such as managing the Covid-19 pandemic, trade relations, diplomacy and – let it not be forgotten – the key role played by China in brokering the rapprochement between the historical rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia. With its increasing influence, the US now has become wary of the soft power and regional influence of China. Given China’s massive investment in global infrastructure, multilateral diplomacy and its leadership potential, the question for China arises: how will it position itself in the wake of ongoing escalation of the Middle Eastern crisis, which has the potential to ignite a global conflict?
The escalation poses both risks and opportunities for China. From one perspective, the conflict could jeopardise all its stakes, alliances and leadership ambitions globally – in effect, setting it back significantly. Conversely, if China gets to effectively navigate the situation, it could potentially emerge as a global hegemon, further solidifying its position on world stage.
The energy imports of China are heavily dependent on the Middle East, with a vast chunk of it coming from Iran. China is unlikely to risk an all-out war between Iran and Israel, as such a conflict could disturb China’s energy supply chain, which would have domestic implications. Although China has alternative suppliers such as Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia, an all-out war could negatively impact its economy, especially when China’s global trade routes, primarily the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI), are expanding. In the event of a global catastrophe, these trade routes could get disrupted, something which China can’t afford, given its reliance on international trade.
Nonetheless, the present situation also provides China with an opportunity to use its diplomatic skills and potentially emerge as a global leader. If China manages to prevent the region and the globe from slipping into a catastrophic conflict, potentially a World War Three, it would remarkably boost its position on the global stage.
Hitherto, China showed commendable leadership skills, specifically during the COVID-19 pandemic and in mediating the decades-long rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which have cast doubts on the future of global leadership dominated by the US. The current conflict provides China with another chance to position itself as a viable alternative to the US-based global liberal order. Without a doubt, it will demand exceptional diplomatic skills, something which China traditionally has indeed showcased. China has historically advocated for peaceful resolution of conflicts through mediation and diplomacy. If China gets to resolve the Middle Eastern conflict through such means, it would prove to be a significant opportunity for it.
In the case of global catastrophe, states will prioritise survival and security over economic interests. If the US manages to provide survival solutions in such a scenario, it could be a significant setback to China’s global leadership aspirations
Nevertheless, the path towards peaceful resolution is bumpy and fraught with challenges. Given China's navigation towards a ‘Peaceful Rise’ and its assertiveness towards global leadership, China faces several hurdles. For instance, Russia and China maintain cordial ties, and both are members of the BRICS. Should a full scale war break out, Russia would likely assist Iran against the West. In such a situation, China, which has historically favoured defensive policies and avoided direct military involvements, would be required to carefully balance its relationship with Russia and Iran on one hand, and Israel and the West on the other. Another challenge which China would likely face in case of global catastrophe is managing relations with Pakistan.
Pakistan is an all-time ally of China and bears the flagship project of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the China Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC). Given Pakistan’s strategic and religious ties with Iran, it is more likely to support Iran in an advent of a conflict. China may have to persuade Pakistan not to get involved in the confrontation between Iran and the West, as such involvement could draw India into the war, further escalating the conflict.
China’s interests are significantly at risk if the present Middle Eastern conflict continues to escalate and become a global catastrophe. A global war would compel China to abandon its traditional neutral stance in conflicts and take a definitive posture. In case China fails to do so, it would put its interests at stake, with its allies and strategic partners questioning China’s assurances of economic stability and security. Such a situation could undermine China's influence in multilateral forums , which significantly aims to reduce countries' reliance on the US dollar.
Given the fact that China is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, it would be expected to play an active role preventing further escalation. Nonetheless, as to how China would actually manage this remains uncertain.
There is another critical factor in this evolving scenario: nuclear weapons. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has set the Doomsday Clock to 90 seconds before midnight as of 23 January 2024, stipulating the near possibility of the nuclear escalation of the conflict. This highlights another pressing question for China: how will it manage its diplomacy in the event of a nuclear conflict?
If nuclear weapons come into play, China would more likely be compelled to take an active role and abandon its neutrality to prevent further nuclear escalation. Such involvement on behalf of China could provoke the US and spark an alliance-driven conflict, potentially repeating historical instances of such slides into conflict. China’s regional, global and multilateral influence could be jeopardised owing to a global war involving nuclear attacks.
In the case of global catastrophe, states will prioritise survival and security over economic interests. If the US manages to provide survival solutions in such a scenario, it could be a significant setback to China’s global leadership aspirations. In such a hypothetical scenario, China might be compelled to retreat from its leadership ambitions and prioritise domestic issues. China’s multilateralism, energy infrastructure and initiatives such as the Belt and Road could be severely impacted. The US could dominate the post-war settlements, limiting China to regional influence only – something which China would not risk.
The main question now is: what are the options at China’s disposal to navigate this situation?
As a leading member of blocs like the BRICS, the SCO, ASEAN etc and a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, China has the diplomatic channels required for resolving the situation peacefully.
China could potentially avert the global catastrophe through mediation, diplomacy, non-proliferation efforts, and confidence-building measures. Such diplomacy would require China to leverage the multilateral platforms that it has access to. This would not only strengthen China’s already strong global standing but once again might also position it to outmanoeuvre the US in handling a global emergency. Beijing could work with GCC nations and Turkey – which will likely be the only NATO member to join Iran in a full-scale war – to mediate the conflict and avert further escalation, without directly antagonising Washington.
Regardless of the circumstances, a global war is not an option that China can afford to risk. Such a conflict would not only put China’s interests at risk but the world would be on the brink of non-existence. For China, the potential World War 3 is not a scenario that the world can simply afford.
Therefore, it is most likely that China, in order to prevent a doomsday scenario, will adopt an efficient diplomatic approach, which has been made a real possibility by Israel’s irrational decision-making and religious fanaticism. Whether global leaders – particularly China – can prevent a global catastrophe remains to be seen. It is still too early to predict the uncertain, but rational diplomacy, particularly from China, will be central in averting a global disaster.