The results of elections in five states, particularly Uttar Pradesh, have sprung surprises. The euphoria that followed the election results last Saturday even pushed two more states—Goa and Manipur—into the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) lap even though the party was not in the majority there. Various exit polls had given the BJP the edge in UP but not the landslide victory that decimated traditional forces such as the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) along with Congress that has been struggling to get back on its feet in the state.
Without a doubt, Prime Minister Narendra Modi emerged as the hero of the moment by repeating the success of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Modi’s manager, BJP chief Amit Shah, has also been credited for the party’s spectacular victory. While UP has fallen into the BJP’s hands after a long time, it will also set the course for the 2019 general elections which are critical for Modi and his team.
It has not, however, gone unnoticed that the elections were marked by polarisation. Modi’s much-talked about “Kabristan and Shamshan” comment contributed considerably to tilting the balance but the way the results emerged also revealed that much of the vote bank had a change of heart perhaps much before he invoked the religion card. (At a UP rally he said: Gaon mein kabristan banta hai toh shamshan bhi banna chahiye. If a cemetery is built for Muslims in the village, then Hindu crematoria should also be built). In 2014, it was Modi who had ensured the BJP’s ascension to power in Delhi with 42% of the vote. This time it has slightly gone up by one percent. But it was pretty much the same case with the SP and BSP. In 2014, they got 30% and 22% of the vote, respectively, and this time around it was 29% and 23%.
This time round the BJP had an added advantage as the castes, which play an important role in UP, evenly voted for the party: 41% of the Scheduled Castes chose the BJP, 42% the OBC, 44% the general category, 45% Jat and 38% of Yadavs also voted for it. And if the analysis about how Muslims have voted is taken at face value then the outcome had been predicted much before the elections were held.
Largely, it has been a victory of democracy and this is being celebrated. But the way the BJP has conducted itself while in power for the last two years, it might not augur well for India to have a dispensation with so much power. India has been boasting about diversity. Minorities form a huge percentage of the population and going by how some of top leaders of BJP have behaved, we might be seeing space for minorities to live comfortably shrink further. The BJP had made it known before the elections that it does not need Muslims as there was not a single Muslim candidate from the party. With nearly 28% of the population this time, the Muslim representation has hit a new low in UP. Only 24 were elected this time, compared to 71 members in the previous assembly. Out of 24 Muslim MLAs, 15 were elected on SP tickets, seven on the BSP and two on Congress tickets.
Now that Modi has emerged as a strong leader he faces the bigger challenge of running the country. The usual prophecies that policy decisions such as demonetisation will sink his ship have proved wrong. On the face of it demonetisation had hit the poor so it should have impacted his prospects in UP but it has proven otherwise.
Likewise many other decisions are yielding “positive” effects for him though in the longer run he might see a different side to them as well. With the Left disappearing from the scene, the Modi effect has almost buried Congress to the extent that they are not able to celebrate their victory in the other state. The fact remains, however, that UP sends 80 members to parliament and that determines the fortunes of any political party that aspires to be in power in Delhi. The inherent weakness of Congress when it comes to leadership has also made it easier for Modi. At the same time the results are an indicator that dynastic politics is losing its sheen.
Modi has more than one challenge at hand. Infusing a sense of security among the minorities may emerge as the leading one, followed by ensuring economic growth and tackling inflation. The poor have higher expectations of Modi as he strikes a chord with them having come from a humble background himself. However, the major task before him would be how he handles Kashmir and Pakistan. He surprised everyone by taking an unscheduled flight to Lahore on December 25, 2015 but the follow-up, for various reasons, lacked coherence. The unimaginative ‘terror and talks cannot go together’ line was taken and he echoed what his party wanted. Perhaps the anti-Pakistan policy paid off well in the UP elections. But if Modi is serious about doing something about Kashmir, talks with Pakistan are unavoidable. He is strong and there is hardly anyone within his party and outside who can question his roadmap. The past few weeks have seen some positive movement in relations between the two countries though nothing concrete has emerged. It is only Modi who can change the course of relations since Pakistan has made some changes in its approach towards India.
How to handle Kashmir is a test case for Modi who has so far only negated his party’s commitment to taking initiatives that are part of the Agenda of Alliance it has agreed upon with the PDP. He only has to fulfill the commitment and not do anything out of the box. What he needs to do is to leave behind the usual bureaucratic approach which sees Kashmir only through the prism of law and order. The only way to reach out to Kashmir and lay the foundation for some tangible steps is to look at it politically. No other option, whether military or financial, has worked. His strength will be put to the test in the coming months and if he succeeds in making a difference then he can emerge stronger. If not, then he will weaken his country even though he may be powerful.
The writer is a senior journalist based in Srinagar (Kashmir) and can be reached at shujaat7867@gmail.com
Without a doubt, Prime Minister Narendra Modi emerged as the hero of the moment by repeating the success of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Modi’s manager, BJP chief Amit Shah, has also been credited for the party’s spectacular victory. While UP has fallen into the BJP’s hands after a long time, it will also set the course for the 2019 general elections which are critical for Modi and his team.
The fact remains, however, that UP sends 80 members to parliament and that determines the fortunes of any political party that aspires to be in power in Delhi
It has not, however, gone unnoticed that the elections were marked by polarisation. Modi’s much-talked about “Kabristan and Shamshan” comment contributed considerably to tilting the balance but the way the results emerged also revealed that much of the vote bank had a change of heart perhaps much before he invoked the religion card. (At a UP rally he said: Gaon mein kabristan banta hai toh shamshan bhi banna chahiye. If a cemetery is built for Muslims in the village, then Hindu crematoria should also be built). In 2014, it was Modi who had ensured the BJP’s ascension to power in Delhi with 42% of the vote. This time it has slightly gone up by one percent. But it was pretty much the same case with the SP and BSP. In 2014, they got 30% and 22% of the vote, respectively, and this time around it was 29% and 23%.
This time round the BJP had an added advantage as the castes, which play an important role in UP, evenly voted for the party: 41% of the Scheduled Castes chose the BJP, 42% the OBC, 44% the general category, 45% Jat and 38% of Yadavs also voted for it. And if the analysis about how Muslims have voted is taken at face value then the outcome had been predicted much before the elections were held.
Largely, it has been a victory of democracy and this is being celebrated. But the way the BJP has conducted itself while in power for the last two years, it might not augur well for India to have a dispensation with so much power. India has been boasting about diversity. Minorities form a huge percentage of the population and going by how some of top leaders of BJP have behaved, we might be seeing space for minorities to live comfortably shrink further. The BJP had made it known before the elections that it does not need Muslims as there was not a single Muslim candidate from the party. With nearly 28% of the population this time, the Muslim representation has hit a new low in UP. Only 24 were elected this time, compared to 71 members in the previous assembly. Out of 24 Muslim MLAs, 15 were elected on SP tickets, seven on the BSP and two on Congress tickets.
Now that Modi has emerged as a strong leader he faces the bigger challenge of running the country. The usual prophecies that policy decisions such as demonetisation will sink his ship have proved wrong. On the face of it demonetisation had hit the poor so it should have impacted his prospects in UP but it has proven otherwise.
Likewise many other decisions are yielding “positive” effects for him though in the longer run he might see a different side to them as well. With the Left disappearing from the scene, the Modi effect has almost buried Congress to the extent that they are not able to celebrate their victory in the other state. The fact remains, however, that UP sends 80 members to parliament and that determines the fortunes of any political party that aspires to be in power in Delhi. The inherent weakness of Congress when it comes to leadership has also made it easier for Modi. At the same time the results are an indicator that dynastic politics is losing its sheen.
Modi has more than one challenge at hand. Infusing a sense of security among the minorities may emerge as the leading one, followed by ensuring economic growth and tackling inflation. The poor have higher expectations of Modi as he strikes a chord with them having come from a humble background himself. However, the major task before him would be how he handles Kashmir and Pakistan. He surprised everyone by taking an unscheduled flight to Lahore on December 25, 2015 but the follow-up, for various reasons, lacked coherence. The unimaginative ‘terror and talks cannot go together’ line was taken and he echoed what his party wanted. Perhaps the anti-Pakistan policy paid off well in the UP elections. But if Modi is serious about doing something about Kashmir, talks with Pakistan are unavoidable. He is strong and there is hardly anyone within his party and outside who can question his roadmap. The past few weeks have seen some positive movement in relations between the two countries though nothing concrete has emerged. It is only Modi who can change the course of relations since Pakistan has made some changes in its approach towards India.
How to handle Kashmir is a test case for Modi who has so far only negated his party’s commitment to taking initiatives that are part of the Agenda of Alliance it has agreed upon with the PDP. He only has to fulfill the commitment and not do anything out of the box. What he needs to do is to leave behind the usual bureaucratic approach which sees Kashmir only through the prism of law and order. The only way to reach out to Kashmir and lay the foundation for some tangible steps is to look at it politically. No other option, whether military or financial, has worked. His strength will be put to the test in the coming months and if he succeeds in making a difference then he can emerge stronger. If not, then he will weaken his country even though he may be powerful.
The writer is a senior journalist based in Srinagar (Kashmir) and can be reached at shujaat7867@gmail.com