The general elections for the national and provincial assemblies are set to take place on the 8th of February – all doubts dispelled. However, the looming question is what comes after that. Najam Sethi, the founding editor of The Friday Times, provided an in-depth analysis of the post-election landscape in his conversation with Karan Thapar on his YouTube show, The Wire.
With the PTI finally devoid of their election symbol – the cricket bat – the path seems clear for the PML-N’s triumph. However, the extent of the victory remains uncertain. Sethi contemplates, “What if the N-League fails to secure over a hundred seats? What if they attain, or are granted … let's say about 70 or 80 seats, and he [Nawaz Sharif] has to depend on a coalition of untrustworthy partners who continually seek concessions? He won’t be able to govern effectively. Would he still aspire to be the prime minister, or would he then … let his brother and daughter run the show.”
Sethi’s discussion leaves us with numerous 'what ifs.'
On the other hand, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and Asif Ali Zardari are setting their sights on Islamabad in their own way. Bilawal recently visited the secretariat of Allama Dr. Tahirul Qadri's Pakistan Awami Tehrik (PAT) in Lahore, where he received assurances of their support for his candidacy in NA-127 of Lahore. On this occasion, Bilawal also called for a fresh inquiry into the Model Town case, involving police brutality against PAT workers, in which many lost their lives. This adds an intriguing dimension to the scenario.
When the Model Town incident occurred, Nawaz Sharif held the position of Prime Minister, and Shahbaz Sharif was the Chief Minister of Punjab. Dr. Qadri had organized a sit-in against the PML-N government in 2014, seeking justice for the Model Town victims and the resignation of Nawaz Sharif, with Imran Khan standing alongside him – the two cousins – with his own demand pertaining to alleged rigging in the 2018 elections. Now, PAT is lending support to Bilawal, whose PPP has been a coalition partner with the N-League, where he served as the foreign minister. Lest we forget, Dr. Qadri had led a long march against the PPP government in 2013, during Asif Ali Zardari's presidency.
If the government is unable to lower the food inflation that stands at about 80% now or to provide any sort of relief to the economically hard-pressed people, then it will be hard to dismiss the possibility of public outrage against the next government – a possible remake of the PDM coalition.
Now, Asif Ali Zardari is aiming for the support of PTI fallouts and independents; hence, both he and Bilawal maintain a soft stance on PTI. Meanwhile, the PML-N has agreed on a seat adjustment with the Istehkam-e Pakistan Party (PPI), comprising former PTI stalwarts – Aleem Khan, Jehangir Tareen, and others. The PTI is clearly in a state of disadvantage – a position they have, according to Sethi, earned for themselves in their romance with the establishment in 2013 – a love that is now lost. As the PTI continues to fight their battle on many fronts, including the legal ones, the two senior judges of the Supreme Court resigned in an unexpected turn of events – what is being called ‘judicial management’.
That’s how the political picture looks at the time of writing this piece. How it will look after 8th February is left to other factors – mainly economics.
One cannot but agree with Sethi that it will be a weak coalition government. One might also add the possibility of Shahbaz Sharif as the Prime Minister and Asif Ali Zardari reinstalled in the Presidency – or vice versa – depending on the way the number game unfolds and who can win the trust of the establishment better. If Shahbaz Sharif goes to the presidency, notwithstanding the PML-N’s internal politics and rifts, Maryam Nawaz might have a better chance to be the Chief Minister of Punjab, with probably the current caretaker Chief Minister, Mohsin Naqvi, becoming the Mayor of Lahore.
The size of the budget for the fiscal year 2024-25 is estimated at Rs. 16.50 trillion, with a tax collection target of Rs. 11.00 trillion – a deficit of Rs. 5.5 trillion. Pakistan needs to repay $77 billion in foreign loans by 2026.
However, if Asif Ali Zardari becomes the president, this kind of arrangement might be hard to conceive. He might then want to see the Punjab chief minister of his choice – Mohsin Naqvi that might be. In that case, Mariyam Nawaz might assume a significant portfolio in the federal cabinet.
However, whoever holds the power will be going shopping with a hugely overused credit card. And the shopping cart looks like this.
The size of the budget for the fiscal year 2024-25 is estimated at Rs. 16.50 trillion, with a tax collection target of Rs. 11.00 trillion – a deficit of Rs. 5.5 trillion. Pakistan needs to repay $77 billion in foreign loans by 2026. Add to this a list of continuing woes of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) running in perpetual loss, a bulging pension bill of over Rs. 800 billion, circular debt of the IPPs touching Rs. 3 trillion, widening trade deficit, and a pressing demand for the defence budget in the wake of the regional security situation. Simply put, the government doesn’t have enough money to pay its own bills and employees’ salaries, let alone spend anything on necessary services like health, education, and development projects to benefit the people. Putting all this together means more taxes, a higher rate of interest, devaluation of the rupee – in short, higher utility bills and more expensive food.
That’s how it looks, and that’s waiting to be carried on the back by the next government.
In the first half of the conversation with Thapar, Sethi dismissed the possibility of a public uproar in the aftermath of the elections, especially from the PTI supporters. However, if the government is unable to lower the food inflation that stands at about 80% now or to provide any sort of relief to the economically hard-pressed people, then it will be hard to dismiss the possibility of public outrage against the next government – a possible remake of the PDM coalition.
A political defeat may be possible to swallow; hunger is not.