The Tipping Point

The Tipping Point

Ever since I can recall – and that spans over decades – the narrative of our national woes has not much changed. One of the more frequently asked questions therefore is: when’re we going to do something about it? Answers have generally followed the following lines: as soon as we get the right people at the helm; after we have run out of all other options; we first may have to hit the rock-bottom before a phoenix rises from the ashes. Or when we have reached the tipping point.


Finding the right people has been only one part of the problem – getting them on the steering wheel, the more important other. What Options were still to be exhausted before left with just the right one; no one knows. And what if the pit was bottomless and the poor phoenix didn’t get a chance! A tipping point, however, is like pornography that cannot be defined, but would be seen when it arrives.


If important organs of the state were paralysed; the civil society had developed serious schisms; the economic prospects looked dismal; political adversaries were refusing to take any prisoners – only deserters; talking past the opponent was the best way to survive a war of words. And the institution once considered to be a nation’s last resort was perceived as the main culprit, also by a few from inside – one could reasonably assume that the defining moment was now knocking at the door. In the wake of the events that rocked our political landscape in March this year, when one overheard the tremors of discontent from within the uniformed folds, one knew that the paradigm had changed. Noises made by those, no longer wearing liveries but still stuck in there, were indeed deafening. I think it served the institution right. If the Army has ruled the country upfront or pulled the strings from behind for the past umpteen years, there was no way it could be absolved of any responsibility for the present plight.


Luckily, the tipping point provides it a window to make amends – and luckier still; the recipe to turn the tide has been prescribed from the times immemorial.


Taking the government to the people’s doorsteps was always conceded as the basic brick of a sound administration and the sine qua non for a vibrant society. The top brass in every concern scuttled the devolution of power to protect its monopoly. Similarly, all efforts to bring about fiscal discipline or rationalise the government structure were frustrated by the vested interest. Then, it’s no secret that any political reforms would sound the death knell for the mafias that rule the country. And, we all know that the primary factor that prevents a fair and just economic activity is our oligarchic structure. That the threat of blackmail deters any meaningful reform should thus be no surprise.


How to overcome these stumbling blocks has conceptually been a simple affair: get all the stakeholders on board. It was even attempted – believe it or not – most seriously by a military ruler. All that Musharraf wanted to do was subverted by the beneficiaries of the status quo, or crashed on the rocks of his personal ambitions. May he live long; if for no other reason than to write a confessional account – and that he actually never came in the  Line of Fire.


Assuming that the present state of affairs will convince all or most in the corridors of power that the time had come to drink from the cup of poison; an important question that still must be addressed is, who will bell the cat? The chances are that we would ask the Army to get the herd together – not only because of its clout, but also in keeping with our native wisdom: tumhe nain dard dya hay; tumhe dava dena” (you caused the pain; now help find the relief). Although it has often burnt its fingers in the country’s politics, the prospects of finally doing some good might persuade the army to pick up the gauntlet! But even if it did, turning the place around would be like lana hai jo-e-sheer ka (an uphill task).


To take the first step on a journey of a thousand mile, it will have to facilitate creation of a supreme council*, which could bring the main powerbrokers under its ambit. This dispensation must also have the wherewithal to overcome considerable political, administrative, and legal roadblocks – before it could administer the long overdue bitter pill. Obviously, that would take some doing, but getting a binding agreement on policies and their implementation would be a far tougher call.


To start with, there would be resistance by the usual suspects who would habitually argue that the situation was not grave enough to warrant any drastic steps. Creating consensus on some of the radical reforms would be even more complex. Some may be genuinely apprehensive; others must struggle to deny credit to the powers behind this transformation. In keeping with the good old military principle, the armed forces will have to lead the way by giving up their perks and privileges – and their immunity. Of course, the civil-political complex, past-master in marking time, was not likely to be impressed by these sublime gestures. To bring them around, besides the Army’s ability to exploit vulnerabilities in the enemy’s armour, the interim government would have to prove its credentials. If the military history was any guide, once there was a breakthrough on any front, the citadel would start crumbling.


One only has to remember that if the Hearts & Minds of the hoi polloi were won over by the example set by the (now much maligned) Defenders of the Country, a genuine people- centric tsunami was bound to follow.


*Political scientists have mulled-over this concept for a long time. A technocratic government or one of national unity, and some other stuff, was best left to them.

The writer is a political/defence commentator and former DG ISI.