After weeks of student-led mass protests, Bangladesh was thrust into political turmoil. This marked an abrupt and dramatic end to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's 15-year rule in the former Pakistani territory.
The relentless protests began after quotas were imposed on government jobs amidst severe economic challenges faced by a young population. Matters escalated into a broader and violent anti-government uprising. A nationwide curfew and suspension of internet services were enacted. As PM Hasina accused the protestors of 'sabotage', the protest organisers returned to the streets as part of their 'non-cooperation movement', demanding the prime minister's resignation. Local media reports suggested that the government's harsh response worsened the unrest as protestors, security forces, and ruling party activists clashed on the streets of Dhaka and other cities. The deadly violence claimed over a hundred lives, while thousands more were injured or incarcerated. When all her authoritarian efforts to crush the protests failed, PM Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled to neighbouring India on August 5.
The ouster of Sheikh Hasina and her government created a power vacuum in the eighth most populous country in the world, and unruly mobs gained strength to target the leaders of the Awami National Party and its allies. There have been reports of attacks on Hindus, which comprise about 8% of Bangladesh's 171 million strong population, apart from other minorities such as Christians and Buddhists. The interim government, led by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus, insists that the reports of violence against minorities are "exaggerated and often fake" and that whatever violence is taking place is political, not sectarian. As the interim government attempts to restore law and order in the country, there is a pressing need to ensure the perpetrators of violence are brought to justice, and the victims are fairly compensated for their losses. According to the Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council head Oikya Parishad, there have been more than 200 incidents where temples, religious crematoriums and other places of worship have been vandalised and attacked by mobs.
Owing to the widespread violence, thousands of people in Bangladesh have been attempting to take refuge in India. There is grave panic among Bangladesh's Hindu community, and thousands have gathered at the Indian border, seeking to cross over to what they believe is safety. However, on August 5, as Hasina boarded a helicopter out of the country, the Indian government decided to shut the 4,100 kilometre-long border and suspended the railway network to Bangladesh. Although Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has expressed his concern over the reported attacks on minorities in Bangladesh on 'X', formerly known as Twitter, his reluctance to help the Hindu minorities in Bangladesh is ironic, given his party's (Bharatiya Janata Party) strong commitment to Hindu nationalism - especially in neighbouring countries. The fact that they have offered asylum to Sheikh Hasina, the main culprit of the violence in Bangladesh, further aggravates the pain of affected minorities.
The BJP government cannot effectively build a cordial relationship with Muhammad Yunus's interim government as long as they provide asylum to his staunchest political foe, former PM Sheikh Hasina
The big question is why the BJP government has made such a seismic shift in its policy pertaining to minorities' protection in neighbouring countries despite being the orchestrator of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) 2019. Responding to objections raised by human rights organisations, Modi's government has insisted that the law was not discriminatory against Muslims but rather a means to protect those escaping religious persecution in other countries. In my opinion, the answer is rather straightforward: the BJP government is more interested in bringing the interim government into its political orbit than protecting Bangladesh's religious minorities. The BJP government cannot effectively build a cordial relationship with Muhammad Yunus's interim government as long as they provide asylum to his staunchest political foe, former PM Sheikh Hasina. That the BJP government continues to provide asylum to Sheikh Hasina adds to its dilemma. This is especially important after it emerged that New Delhi actively lobbied Washington to adopt a lenient approach towards the Hasina regime despite her autocratic tendencies.
Following fervent campaigns for the protection of religious minorities, like the CAA 2019, and efforts to pass legislation against Hinduphobia at the United Nations, the BJP government has become hostage to its own political rhetoric. In fact, many political parties in India across the spectrum have decried BJPs' inaction regarding the crisis in Bangladesh. Recently, Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray echoed these sentiments in the following words: "If Prime Minister Modi could stop the war in Ukraine, he should also take similar steps in Bangladesh and save the Hindus."
Due to the enactment of the CAA in India, the atrocities against Hindus in Bangladesh have become even more pronounced - with some reports suggesting a staggering 200% rise since 2014. It is widely referred to as a step in the wrong direction for both Indian secularism and regional harmony. It has set a dangerous precedent in the subcontinent that "religious identity" can become the basis of citizenship. In addition, the recent demonisation of Muslims as "infiltrators" and as proponents of a "population jihad" and "love jihad", as proclaimed by the far-right BJP supporters, has aggravated the Hindu-Muslim antagonism.
The Indian government's meek response to the evolving political turmoil in Bangladesh also undermined its intervention in East Pakistan in 1971, which was claimed to be on humanitarian grounds. PM Narendra Modi has on multiple occasions boasted about the cardinal role of the Indian-backed Mukti Bahini forces in Bangladesh's fight for independence and protection of Hindus across the border. In contrast, the current apathy to the plight of Hindus in Bangladesh leads one to suspect that perhaps the 1971 intervention into East Pakistan was solely aimed at weakening their arch-rival and expanding their political influence in the region. With the fall of the friendly Awami League government, India has lost a lot of leverage as it over-invested in Sheikh Hasina and under-invested in Bangladesh as an ally. Perhaps, India's capacity to shape development in Dhaka will be limited, but due to strong bilateral trade ties and shared water resources, it is nearly impossible for both countries to remain hostages to the vicissitudes of political change.
Even a Hindu-majority country like Nepal has a long-standing unresolved border dispute with India. India has created hurdles in "free transit and free trade within and beyond Nepal" and keeps suppressing its people and government
Bangladesh is not the only country where India has been the focus of anger and resentment. Besides Pakistan and Afghanistan, New Delhi has also lost goodwill among the ruling elites of Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives. The India-Out campaign in the Maldives in early 2024 is not an isolated development. The Modi government's confrontational approach rather than a collective approach in the region has hurt India's political power in South Asia.
The BJP-led government has made deliberate attempts to undermine the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and created alternative regional institutions like the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) with the support of the former Bangladeshi premier. Critics point out that the motivation behind such exclusionary and patronising measures could be to isolate Pakistan diplomatically. Evidently, their high-handed measures have backfired. Even a Hindu-majority country like Nepal has a long-standing unresolved border dispute with India. India has created hurdles in "free transit and free trade within and beyond Nepal" and keeps suppressing its people and government.
Due to the BJP's overt anti-Muslim rhetoric, India's traditional allies like Bahrain, Iran and UAE have expressed grave concerns and discontent over the derogatory remarks regarding Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) by two BJP members of parliament in recent times. Additionally, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, along with the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), has acutely criticised India over its mistreatment and "genocide" of Muslims in Indian-occupied Kashmir. It is just another consequence of the BJP-led government's flawed politics, costing them precious goodwill in South Asia and the Persian Gulf.
India must remember that a country can change its friends but not its neighbours. The only way out is to acknowledge the gravity of emerging challenges in South Asia and address them pragmatically. Additionally, India needs to backtrack from its adversarial approach toward its neighbours and must recourse to the Gujral Doctrine articulated by the former Indian PM IK Gujral, which calls for better relations and for the resolution of mutual disputes through dialogue with neighbouring countries. The Modi government, now in its third term, can choose to address its foreign policy woes through the sincere implementation of the Gujral Doctrine. This will diminish the hostility in our geopolitical environment and help the smaller countries in the region to witness progress and prosperity.