May 12 was a significant day for the people of Iraq. While Pakistanis remembered the violence in Karachi 11 years ago, Iraqi citizens took to the polls in the search of a better future, one that hopefully includes an end to the violence that has devastated the country. These were the first parliamentary elections in the country since Prime Minister Haider al Abadi tweeted the defeat of the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIS) last year and the fourth since the ouster of Saddam Hussein. Although the formation of the next government and the associated political wrangling and negotiations can take up to 90 days, the preliminary election results have offered the world a fair idea of the aspirations of the people of Iraq.
Many people had predicted that Abadi would secure another term as prime minister after successfully driving the ISIS out of Iraq. However, the voters had other ideas. Muqtada al-Sadr, a Shia cleric, and his Saeroun Alliance comprised of the Sadrist Movement and Iraqi Communist Party, stunned many by securing more than 1.3 million votes. This translates into 54 parliamentary seats in the 329-member Iraqi parliament. Hadi al-Amiri, a militia leader backed by Iran and the figurehead of the Badr Brigade - an anti-Saddam group forged by Iran during the Iran-Iraq war - came second with 1.2 million votes (47 seats in the parliament). Abadi’s party secured 42 seats, with slightly more than a million votes.
One of the new entrants launched by the alliance is Muntadhar al-Zaidi, an Iraqi journalist who hurled a shoe at George Bush during his visit to Baghdad in 2008
Muqtada al-Sadr, the son of the late grand ayatollah Sayyid Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr, is a hardliner who campaigned as the face of reform in this election. During his campaign, Sadr rallied against foreign intervention in Iraq. His opposition to American presence in the country is widely known. One would assume that since he is a Shia cleric, he would have a soft corner for Iran. Quite the contrary: Sadr has repeatedly challenged Iranian influence in the country and his “Iran out” chants will probably not go down well with policy makers in Tehran.
Sensing this, perhaps, Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to the Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, “We will not allow liberals and communists to govern in Iraq.” In response, General Raed Fahmy, general secretary of the Iraqi Communist Party, said, “Everybody is welcome to provide support to Iraq, but not at the expense of its sovereignty and independence.”
It is interesting that Sadr chose not to run in the elections and cultivated new faces through the Saeroun Alliance as a political platform. One of the new entrants launched by the alliance is Muntadhar al-Zaidi, an Iraqi journalist who hurled a shoe at George Bush during his visit to Baghdad in 2008.
Supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr carry his image as they celebrate in Tahrir Square, Baghdad, Iraq on Monday, after the political alliance he backs appeared to gain the most votes in parliamentary elections
After the election victory, Saleh al-Obeidi, an official spokesperson for Sadr, stated in a post-election victory news conference that the alliance would try to form a government that was non-sectarian, independent and comprised of technocrats. Fighting corruption, Obeidi added, would be the top priority for the alliance.
In an article I penned last year after Sadr’s announcement that he would be willing to forge a political alliance with secular forces, I hinted at how the move could trigger voters to vote the alliance into government. On May 12, the people of Iraq showed how desperately they have been looking for such a change.
However, the alliance between the Sadrist Movement and the Communist Party is not a guarantee for a majority in the next government. Since none of the political parties or alliances enjoy an outright majority, a coalition government or a hung parliament is likely to be formed. The Saeroun Alliance might have won the most seats, but an electoral alliance between other political forces can prevent new faces from stepping into the corridors of power. Sadr has challenged both the United States and Iran. Tehran has already made its intentions clear by publicly denouncing any political alliance involving secular forces running the show in Iraq. Also, considering how Trump, Pompeo, and Haspel are seemingly going about their business in the Middle East, Sadr and his alliance is likely to face staunch opposition from both egional and international actors.
For the betterment of Iraq itself, it is important not to let the voters down. It is also important that the Saeroun Sairoon Alliance be given a chance to govern. It is time to turn a new leaf. In the post-ISIS Iraq, it is vital to cater to the aspirations of the local people.
Iraq needs $100 billion for reconstruction. More than two million people in Iraq are still displaced. ISIS has ravaged the entire country. According to Transparency International, Iraq is one of the most corrupt countries in the world.
Despite all of the above, the results of the latest parliamentary elections in Iraq might have given a glimmer of hope. The Saeroun Alliance appears tricky to say the least, but it is worth giving a shot. It is imperative that the major stakeholders in this process understand this. We are all witness to the dangers an unstable Iraq can pose to the entire world. Let there not be another Zarqawi or Baghdadi in the making.
The writer is a counterterrorism and security analyst specialising in Middle East politics and South Asian security affairs
