New Processes At Play As The US Seeks Viable Middle East Exit

"To be able to pursue geopolitical competition with China, it is crucial for the US to avoid any tensions or conflicts in the Middle East and Europe"

New Processes At Play As The US Seeks Viable Middle East Exit

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has recently expressed the need for a Palestinian state, stating that it would benefit both Israel and the region. This is a topic that the US has discussed in the past, but it is now being emphasised due to the ongoing search for a solution.

In a meeting with PA leader Mahmoud Abbas, Blinken emphasised the US position that a Palestinian state should coexist with Israel and that both nations should live in peace and security. Although the visit was described by many local commentators as mere "theatre," Blinken's statements underline the importance of finding a path to peace in the Middle East.

However, Antony Blinken was unable to persuade Netanyahu to accept this.

A new situation arose with Hamas' attack on Israel, prompting the US to quickly return to the region. The US stated that it aims to resolve issues in the Middle East through diplomatic means. Without a well-defined strategy, it risks finding itself in numerous dead ends and uncontrollable crises. The US requires a clear strategy and set of priorities. Currently, the administration led by Joe Biden lacks direction and appears highly fragmented. There is a notable absence of vision.

A week ago, the Washington Post reported that the US is discussing the establishment of a new country in the Middle East with Arab countries. According to reports, the name of the leader has already been determined. Later, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Joe Biden spoke on the phone. Following the phone call, Netanyahu stated that the recognition of Palestine by the US would undermine the regional peace process. According to the Washington Post and Netanyahu's statement, the US is considering recognising Palestine – if Netanyahu can be persuaded.

In previous articles, it has been suggested that the establishment of a Palestinian state may be on the agenda following the end of the ongoing war in which Israel is involved. The US is currently unable to withdraw from the Middle East, and the establishment of a Palestinian state in the region may provide a potential solution. Recognition of Palestine by the US could facilitate the development of a strategy with the Arab nations. It is worth noting that Saudi Arabia has stated that they will not begin the normalisation process with Israel until the Palestinian state is recognised.

Considering the latest developments, each country is adopting a new position.

As such, it is quite clear that the United States of America must recognise the State of Palestine to get out of the Middle East. No other solution seems viable at this point, and the US must resume negotiations. Moreover, we must also consider that it is very difficult for the US to make peace in the Middle East without agreeing with the Arabs.

Jordan and Egypt are two countries that are concerned with the defence of Palestinians. Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, in particular, is a pragmatic leader who has not taken a clear stance on Palestine, but now faces a choice, as do other Arab countries. It is important to note that in international relations, what a leader says today may not necessarily hold true tomorrow due to changing circumstances.

The US is engaged in significant geopolitical competition with China in the Asia-Pacific region. To maintain this competition, it is crucial to avoid any tensions or conflicts in the Middle East and Europe. The US is leveraging India against China, Pakistan against India, and Russia against Europe. Ukraine has been used as a proxy country against Russia, which has resulted in a response from Russia. The ultimate goal is to weaken Russia, which has been partially successful. However, this partial success had significant negative consequences for the EU, particularly in terms of its economy and trade.

During the Munich Security Conference, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Russia has lost some of its power, indicating partial success. In other words, Ukraine was sacrificed, but Russia was weakened to some extent.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine deserves to be admitted to NATO due to its efforts in fighting against the Russians, which aligns with Blinken's statement that Ukraine's conflict with Russia has weakened the latter.

The US has expressed support for Japan to strengthen its military capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as for the EU to enhance its defence. Due to limitations in resources, the US cannot provide unlimited economic and military assistance to all countries. In Europe, the US aims to encourage countries to stand up to Russia, support Ukraine, and increase their military strength.

From a Chinese perspective, it is likely that the more problems the US has in the Middle East, the better. And while the quagmire worsens for the US, the inclusion of the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt in the BRICS could potentially increase China's involvement in the Middle East.