The civil service structure, historically referred to as the steel frame of the Indian British government, appears to be gradually eroding, alongside the old political order. The advent of new age media and digital platforms has significantly altered the dynamics of Pakistani society and politics, as exemplified by the events of the 8th February elections.
In the summer of 2014, I delivered a lecture at a university in Lahore on "The New Media and Old Politics." My thesis posited that the traditional style and method of politics in Pakistan are antiquated and ill-equipped to withstand the impact of new media – both social and electronic. The dissemination of information through social media channels is largely beyond control, rendering conventional censorship ineffective. Mere attempts to deactivate select media platforms only serve to impede information flow partially, often yielding adverse consequences for the general public. Consequently, such measures not only fail but also backfire, resulting in negative political outcomes.
A judicious evaluation of this practice should serve to elucidate to Pakistani authorities its futility in times of crisis.
Moreover, the widespread availability of smartphones has blurred the traditional distinctions between rural and urban, literate and illiterate demographics. I argued in my lecture a decade ago that smartphone ownership does not necessarily correlate with rural residence or educational attainment, irrespective of an individual's location or educational background. The recent election outcomes underscore this assertion, as citizens utilized mobile phones to educate themselves about the election symbols of PTI-backed independent candidates. Attempts to disrupt mobile signals proved ineffective against determined opposition.
Even post-elections, PTI candidates promptly disseminated discrepancies in Forms 45 and 47 to bolster their narrative of electoral malpractice. This narrative garnered international media attention, exacerbating challenges for other parties such as PML-N and PPP in countering it. This instance highlights the profound impact of technology on old-school political practices, subjecting adherents of traditional methods of politics to unforeseen challenges.
The traditional style and method of politics in Pakistan are antiquated and ill-equipped to withstand the impact of new media – both social and electronic. The dissemination of information through social media channels is largely beyond control, rendering conventional censorship ineffective.
I forecasted this in my July 2023 article, anticipating the demise of electable politics, a prognostication validated by the resounding defeat of the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party – largely comprising of the electables – and other such runners in the 8th February elections. Even those who won, their victory remains questionable in the public eye.
Nevertheless, it is not only the old political order facing such challenges; the rusted steel frame of the civil service is also succumbing to the pressures of the burgeoning new media and other external factors.
Those external factors pertain to the stark reality that the national treasury is depleted, arguably with the contribution of both civil service and their old-fashioned political allies. A cursory examination of current economic indicators reveals a dire situation: Pakistan is obligated to repay $26 billion to international donors within the next two years; the State Bank of Pakistan reports a current account deficit of $1.6 billion; inflation stands at approximately 40%; the circular debt accrued by independent power producers (IPPs) nears PKR 4 trillion.
These financial burdens are compounded by government expenditures, including a pension bill exceeding PKR 850 billion for the federal government alone. The under-22 population of Pakistan amounts to 60% of the total population of the country, requiring 3 million jobs every year. For this to be achieved, Pakistan needs to maintain a 7% GDP growth rate for the next 30 years. On the contrary, a dismal GDP growth rate is forecasted at nearly 0.5% over the next two years. This stagnation in economic expansion portends a dearth of employment opportunities for the youthful population. Let’s not forget a huge number of children who are out of school.
It doesn’t seem to get better any time soon; and with the current bureaucratic structure and the prevailing political order – never!
Should the IMF's latest round of demands be implemented, there will be an extraordinary escalation in the prices of utility bills and essential goods, including food items.
Take a brief glance at the much-anticipated 24th IMF program set to commence in March. The International Monetary Fund has already stipulated four conditions for the approval of the $6 billion loan over the next three years: the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) must elevate the tax-to-GDP ratio to 15% within this period; the State Bank is required to uphold foreign exchange reserves equivalent to three months of the import bill; measures must be taken to reduce the current account deficit and maintain a surplus in the primary balance. Most impactful among these conditions is the cessation of all subsidies, including those extended to the agricultural and industrial sectors – notably, gas and electricity subsidies. Should the IMF's latest round of demands be implemented, there will be an extraordinary escalation in the prices of utility bills and essential goods, including food items.
In the face of these realities, the recently elected Chief Minister of Punjab, Maryam Nawaz, has announced plans to expand the police force of the province – ostensibly under the advisement of her father, Mian Nawaz Sharif, who pursued a similar strategy during his tenure as Chief Minister of Punjab. Many of these police officers now occupy senior positions and are known for their loyalty to the Sharif family rather than to the taxpayers – the populace of the province – who fund their salaries.
Police officers and civil servants serve the interests of their respective political bosses with unwavering dedication, nurturing a symbiotic relationship wherein each party reciprocally benefits when in power.
The PML-N has replicated this practice across various departments in the Punjab province, mirroring the Pakistan Peoples Party's (PPP) actions in the Sindh province. This strategy has undeniably reaped significant political rewards for both parties, enabling them to maintain dominance in these regions despite their lacklustre performance on the national stage. These police officers and civil servants serve the interests of their respective political bosses with unwavering dedication, nurturing a symbiotic relationship wherein each party reciprocally benefits when in power.
Nevertheless, the landscape appears poised for change in the foreseeable future. International donors are now pushing for a reduction in government intervention within the business and development sectors, and a wide-ranging privatization scheme directed at the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) – citing the nation's economic constraints.
The compromised rationality of the civil service has brought matters to this critical juncture, wherein they will falter alongside their political masters. However, as current trends suggest and political analysts forecast an early exit for the PML-N and PPP coalition from power, it will deal a significant blow to the civil services of Sindh and Punjab, as well as to the police officers recruited by these parties.
As this realization begins to permeate among government officials, their attitudes towards their political masters will inevitably begin to shift, until they confront the harsh reality that there is scant sustenance left in the kitchen – unable to feed their fat bellies anymore.
The steel frame is set to melt along with the old-political order!