After celebrating 75 years of their independence in 2022 with no positive change in their relations, the one and a half billion people of India and Pakistan are now hoping to strive for a lasting, honorable and just peace a century after partition in August 2047. The generation which experienced partition has long passed, and in 2047, there will be hardly anyone in India and Pakistan alive who had witnessed that violent phase of history.
In the coming 25 years, can the legacy of partition - the animus and hostility which has shaped Indo-Pak relations for decades – be mitigated? Will the younger generations in India and Pakistan in 2047 be different than in 2023 or 1997?
India has certainly done well in the economic domain, with impressive technological development and infrastructure building. Like China, India should now follow the policy of normalizing relations with its neighbors, while adhering to the policy of non-interference in their internal affairs. As the fifth largest global economy today and forecasted to emerge as the world’s third largest economy by 2028, India should now focus on mending fences with its neighbor Pakistan.
Likewise, Pakistan, which is in dire straits because of a serious economic and political crisis, should pursue an innovative approach of mending fences with India, its only eastern neighbor. Out of the box solutions, which have been suggested for long in Track-1, Track-II and Track-III diplomacy must be revisited, despite the downhill trend in Indo-Pak relations since the proclamation of the Jammu & Kashmir Reorganization Act by the Modi regime on August 5, 2019, which revoked Articles 370 and 35-A, which gave so-called autonomy and special status to Indian held J&K.
Polarization in Indo-Pak relations since August 5, 2019 has led to the suspension of road, train and air travel, along with normal trade and commercial ties. India has not budged an inch from its decision to unilaterally absorb Jammu & Kashmir, and doesn’t care if Pakistan has levied the condition that relations with New Delhi cannot be normalized unless India reverses the act of August 5, 2019 and restores the autonomous status of J&K. As a result of the standoff in Indo-Pak relations, those suffering are the people of two countries, including divided families who are unable to visit their relative because of travel and visa restrictions. The humanitarian aspect of sustained conflict in Indo-Pak relations, particularly along both sides of Line of Control depriving the people of Jammu & Kashmir of connectivity, is another reality of ongoing hostility that engulfs the two countries.
When India refused to adopt a flexible approach on Pakistan’s stance on J&K, and feels that it has strengthened its position since August 5, 2019, what are the options for Islamabad? If Pakistan has failed to exert any pressure over New Delhi to budge on its position on J&K and local Kashmiri resistance has also failed to cause any damage to the Indian military in the Muslim dominated Valley of Kashmir, the outcome is India’s growing confidence that it has gotten away with revoking Article 370 and 35-A. That has led to the planned meeting on tourism under G20 to be organized in Srinagar and Leh in May this year, which has vindicated India’s stance over J&K as an integral part of its territory. Pakistan’s domestic predicament, particularly the worsening of the ongoing economic and political crisis, has tended to further weaken Islamabad’s position on normalizing ties with India on its own terms.
A breakthrough in Indo-Pakistan relations, based on sovereign equality and a win-win situation may be a legitimate desire of the generation which will be at the helm of affairs in 2047, but what to make up of parochial, tunnel vision and retrogressive mindset of those who wield power in New Delhi and Islamabad? If India and Pakistan want to have a peaceful, stable region; deal with environmental threats and other human security challenges collaboratively before 2047, they must seriously take three measures. Only 25 years are left before India and Pakistan reach the year 2047 and the two neighbors must realize the damage which will be done to the present and future generations if concrete steps are not taken to normalize trade, travel and communication linkages soon.
First, the two neighbors should suspend propaganda operations against each other, so that a cordial environment is created for resuming comprehensive dialogue. For that matter, Pakistan will have to take a back foot on its position that without New Delhi not reversing August 5, 2019 act on J&K, it will neither resume the process of dialogue, nor restore trade and travel ties with India.
Pakistan’s stance on J&K has thus far not managed to compel India to revisit its policies because neither has there been a popular uprising against New Delhi’s repressive policies, particularly in the Valley of Kashmir since August 5, 2019, nor is there any international pressure against what Pakistan calls the illegal occupation of Jammu and Kashmir. Will a flexible stance from Pakistan lead to a transformation of India’s negative posture vis-à-vis Islamabad? This depends largely on the outcome of the 2024 general elections in India. Certainly, if the BJP returns to power, its approach and policy vis-à-vis Pakistan and Kashmir will remain unchanged. In that case, there will be a reduced possibility of any breakthrough in resuming the Indo-Pak peace process in the coming years.
The recent political history of India reflects that no Prime Minister has ever been elected to a third term in office. If Narendra Modi is aspiring for a third term, it will cement the perception that the people of India don’t necessarily want change. Whereas, if Congress wants to prevent the BJP-Shiv Sena duo from coming to power in the 2024 general elections, it must work hard and enhance its appeal among voters. A new regime in Delhi may have a positive impact on Indo-Pakistan relations. Second, a negative feature of 2047 as a year of lasting peace is growing arrogance and confidence in India because of its landmark economic progress. The fact that despite poverty, overpopulation and unresolved social issues, India is the world’s 5th largest economy and by 2028, may become the world’s 3rd largest economy, tends to deepen thinking at the policy making level that improving relations with Pakistan is not required.
For that matter, several reasons are outlined - ranging from the alleged involvement of Pakistan in cross border terrorism to Islamabad’s stance of not normalizing relations with New Delhi unless August 5, 2019 Jammu & Kashmir Reorganization Act is revoked. For the first time in recent history, India has normal relations with Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka, and its conflicts with China are manageable. Its policy to isolate Pakistan in South Asia and to prevent the holding of the 19th SAARC summit in Islamabad in November 2016 has not negatively impacted its foreign relations, except that its relations with Pakistan are not normal. Even with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, one can observe some connectivity between New Delhi and Kabul.
Without qualitative change in India’s approach to Pakistan in terms of its arrogance and indifference, there cannot be any meaningful peace in South Asia. After all, India’s only western neighbor is Pakistan and hostile relations with Islamabad will not really help New Delhi keep its foreign policy goals sailing smoothly or to project itself as an emerging global power.
Finally, if 2047 is the timeline for a new Indo-Pak relations based on sovereign equality, mutual trust, and tolerance in trade, commercial, cultural arenas, along with prudent management of conflicts - in that case, one can expect a ‘great leap forward’ in ties between the two countries a whole century after the partition of the Indian subcontinent.
Idealism, coupled with pragmatic realism, in bettering Indo-Pak relations will go a long way in creating a more conducive environment so that by 2047 most of the issues which have led to stagnation and polarization thus far are taken care of. Realistically speaking, it is Pakistan which needs normalized and peaceful relations with its only eastern neighbor because of its worsening economic and political situation. Now it is up to the Indian leadership to seize the opportunity and offer Pakistan a fair deal for lasting peace in the region. High profile visits by the leadership of India and Pakistan to each other’s countries will not make a difference, unless people are allowed to travel with minimum visa and travel restrictions. After all, India and Pakistan must learn lessons from the model of regional cooperation in Europe and South East Asia where connectively at the grassroots’ level has led to qualitative change in the lives of people.
In the coming 25 years, can the legacy of partition - the animus and hostility which has shaped Indo-Pak relations for decades – be mitigated? Will the younger generations in India and Pakistan in 2047 be different than in 2023 or 1997?
India has certainly done well in the economic domain, with impressive technological development and infrastructure building. Like China, India should now follow the policy of normalizing relations with its neighbors, while adhering to the policy of non-interference in their internal affairs. As the fifth largest global economy today and forecasted to emerge as the world’s third largest economy by 2028, India should now focus on mending fences with its neighbor Pakistan.
Likewise, Pakistan, which is in dire straits because of a serious economic and political crisis, should pursue an innovative approach of mending fences with India, its only eastern neighbor. Out of the box solutions, which have been suggested for long in Track-1, Track-II and Track-III diplomacy must be revisited, despite the downhill trend in Indo-Pak relations since the proclamation of the Jammu & Kashmir Reorganization Act by the Modi regime on August 5, 2019, which revoked Articles 370 and 35-A, which gave so-called autonomy and special status to Indian held J&K.
Polarization in Indo-Pak relations since August 5, 2019 has led to the suspension of road, train and air travel, along with normal trade and commercial ties. India has not budged an inch from its decision to unilaterally absorb Jammu & Kashmir, and doesn’t care if Pakistan has levied the condition that relations with New Delhi cannot be normalized unless India reverses the act of August 5, 2019 and restores the autonomous status of J&K. As a result of the standoff in Indo-Pak relations, those suffering are the people of two countries, including divided families who are unable to visit their relative because of travel and visa restrictions. The humanitarian aspect of sustained conflict in Indo-Pak relations, particularly along both sides of Line of Control depriving the people of Jammu & Kashmir of connectivity, is another reality of ongoing hostility that engulfs the two countries.
When India refused to adopt a flexible approach on Pakistan’s stance on J&K, and feels that it has strengthened its position since August 5, 2019, what are the options for Islamabad? If Pakistan has failed to exert any pressure over New Delhi to budge on its position on J&K and local Kashmiri resistance has also failed to cause any damage to the Indian military in the Muslim dominated Valley of Kashmir, the outcome is India’s growing confidence that it has gotten away with revoking Article 370 and 35-A. That has led to the planned meeting on tourism under G20 to be organized in Srinagar and Leh in May this year, which has vindicated India’s stance over J&K as an integral part of its territory. Pakistan’s domestic predicament, particularly the worsening of the ongoing economic and political crisis, has tended to further weaken Islamabad’s position on normalizing ties with India on its own terms.
A breakthrough in Indo-Pakistan relations, based on sovereign equality and a win-win situation may be a legitimate desire of the generation which will be at the helm of affairs in 2047, but what to make up of parochial, tunnel vision and retrogressive mindset of those who wield power in New Delhi and Islamabad? If India and Pakistan want to have a peaceful, stable region; deal with environmental threats and other human security challenges collaboratively before 2047, they must seriously take three measures. Only 25 years are left before India and Pakistan reach the year 2047 and the two neighbors must realize the damage which will be done to the present and future generations if concrete steps are not taken to normalize trade, travel and communication linkages soon.
First, the two neighbors should suspend propaganda operations against each other, so that a cordial environment is created for resuming comprehensive dialogue. For that matter, Pakistan will have to take a back foot on its position that without New Delhi not reversing August 5, 2019 act on J&K, it will neither resume the process of dialogue, nor restore trade and travel ties with India.
Pakistan’s stance on J&K has thus far not managed to compel India to revisit its policies because neither has there been a popular uprising against New Delhi’s repressive policies, particularly in the Valley of Kashmir since August 5, 2019, nor is there any international pressure against what Pakistan calls the illegal occupation of Jammu and Kashmir. Will a flexible stance from Pakistan lead to a transformation of India’s negative posture vis-à-vis Islamabad? This depends largely on the outcome of the 2024 general elections in India. Certainly, if the BJP returns to power, its approach and policy vis-à-vis Pakistan and Kashmir will remain unchanged. In that case, there will be a reduced possibility of any breakthrough in resuming the Indo-Pak peace process in the coming years.
The recent political history of India reflects that no Prime Minister has ever been elected to a third term in office. If Narendra Modi is aspiring for a third term, it will cement the perception that the people of India don’t necessarily want change. Whereas, if Congress wants to prevent the BJP-Shiv Sena duo from coming to power in the 2024 general elections, it must work hard and enhance its appeal among voters. A new regime in Delhi may have a positive impact on Indo-Pakistan relations. Second, a negative feature of 2047 as a year of lasting peace is growing arrogance and confidence in India because of its landmark economic progress. The fact that despite poverty, overpopulation and unresolved social issues, India is the world’s 5th largest economy and by 2028, may become the world’s 3rd largest economy, tends to deepen thinking at the policy making level that improving relations with Pakistan is not required.
For that matter, several reasons are outlined - ranging from the alleged involvement of Pakistan in cross border terrorism to Islamabad’s stance of not normalizing relations with New Delhi unless August 5, 2019 Jammu & Kashmir Reorganization Act is revoked. For the first time in recent history, India has normal relations with Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka, and its conflicts with China are manageable. Its policy to isolate Pakistan in South Asia and to prevent the holding of the 19th SAARC summit in Islamabad in November 2016 has not negatively impacted its foreign relations, except that its relations with Pakistan are not normal. Even with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, one can observe some connectivity between New Delhi and Kabul.
Without qualitative change in India’s approach to Pakistan in terms of its arrogance and indifference, there cannot be any meaningful peace in South Asia. After all, India’s only western neighbor is Pakistan and hostile relations with Islamabad will not really help New Delhi keep its foreign policy goals sailing smoothly or to project itself as an emerging global power.
Finally, if 2047 is the timeline for a new Indo-Pak relations based on sovereign equality, mutual trust, and tolerance in trade, commercial, cultural arenas, along with prudent management of conflicts - in that case, one can expect a ‘great leap forward’ in ties between the two countries a whole century after the partition of the Indian subcontinent.
Idealism, coupled with pragmatic realism, in bettering Indo-Pak relations will go a long way in creating a more conducive environment so that by 2047 most of the issues which have led to stagnation and polarization thus far are taken care of. Realistically speaking, it is Pakistan which needs normalized and peaceful relations with its only eastern neighbor because of its worsening economic and political situation. Now it is up to the Indian leadership to seize the opportunity and offer Pakistan a fair deal for lasting peace in the region. High profile visits by the leadership of India and Pakistan to each other’s countries will not make a difference, unless people are allowed to travel with minimum visa and travel restrictions. After all, India and Pakistan must learn lessons from the model of regional cooperation in Europe and South East Asia where connectively at the grassroots’ level has led to qualitative change in the lives of people.