In February 2023, the US-based think-tank Nonproliferation Policy Education Center organised a war game to explore the possibility of a conflict between Iran and Israel turning into a nuclear exchange. "35 participants included Republican and Democratic Hill staff; US Executive Branch officials and analysts; leading academic scholars; national security and Middle Eastern think tank experts; and US military personnel who participated in the war game. The scenario on which the wargame was based showed Iran being on the verge of manufacturing a fully functional nuclear weapon. Israel responds by targetting Iranian nuclear facilities with missile and air strikes to decapitate Iranian nuclear capability. This, however, fails to reduce Iran's capacity and will to start a war. Americans backed off from openly supporting Israel, which led it to launch nuclear strikes against Iran.
The war games continued for two months, and it was concluded that any conflict between Israel and Iran would quickly turn nuclear, "Israel's actions, however, fail to bend Iran's will to continue to wage war. Worse, the United States now urges Israel to stand down. Isolated and desperate, Israel concludes it has no choice: It launches a "precision" follow-on nuclear strike of 50 weapons against 25 Iranian military targets (including Russian-manned air defence sites). The aim is to cripple Iranian offensive forces and perhaps induce enough chaos to prompt the Iranian revolutionary regime to collapse. Almost immediately after the Israeli strike, however, Iran launches a nuclear attack of its own against an Israeli air base where American military are present," reads the document that records the conclusion of this wargame. The conclusion and proceedings of the war game are available on the centre's website.
At present, Iran has not declared itself a nuclear weapons state. But a Bulletin of Atomic Scientists—a credible US-based publication that publishes writings and analysis on nuclear issues—has reported in its latest web edition that Iran might be only weeks away from developing a nuclear weapon.
After the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, they have never been used by any country against its opponent, even though conflicts, even amongst nuclear-armed nations, have persisted since. So, a kind of nuclear taboo persists in the strategic culture of our international political system against the use of nuclear weapons in any conflict
In light of the conclusions from the privately organised wargames, it could be said what we are witnessing in the Middle East is tantamount to the unfolding of a nuclear crisis— both Iran and Israel have directly attacked each other's territory with conventional payloads. There is talk of Israelis launching air or missile strikes against Iranian nuclear sites —which would amount to exercising the nuclear option without a nuclear bomb. Iranians have launched strikes against Israeli military installations with conventional munition mounted on its missiles. It is believed in the Western strategic community that Israeli nuclear weapons are meant for defensive purposes. The said wargame, however, concluded that there would quickly reach a point in any possible Israel-Iran conflict where Israelis would decide to use their nuclear arsenal against Iran. The wargame also concluded Israelis are unlikely to use the nuclear option in a situation where they are still backed and supported by Western powers, especially the United States.
In case Israelis feel isolated and pushed into a corner, they are more likely to exercise the nuclear option. Iranians, on the other hand, see their nuclear option as a defence mechanism against a possible US invasion of Iranian territory. But any West-orchestrated political and social unrest in Iran —Western media is already reporting signs of unrest in Iranian Baluchistan, the Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and possible Israeli decapitating strikes to downgrade Iranian military capability, would lead to Iran hurriedly putting together the nuclear weapon and hurling it on Israel.
One key fact about nuclear weapons in world history is that after the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, they have never been used by any country against its opponent, even though conflicts, even amongst nuclear-armed nations, have persisted since. So, a kind of nuclear taboo persists in the strategic culture of our international political system against the use of nuclear weapons in any conflict. The majority of the countries that are declared nuclear weapons states hold a policy of "No First Use" of nuclear weapons in deference to the nuclear taboo—a taboo that has been painstakingly constructed by international powers to partially maintain their monopoly on nuclear weapons technology and partially genuinely to safeguard the world from horrendous mutual destruction that nuclear weapons use could inflict on the world. This nuclear taboo is in great danger of being broken in the Middle East, which would have implications for the international system and especially for our region — South Asia, where two nuclear-armed countries, India and Pakistan, have been living on the brink of a conflict for the past several years.
In India, the pressure from the hardliners is already making the Indian government and strategists dilute their commitment to the "No First Use" policy as well, which was already in doubt after Pakistan showcased its tactical nukes in 1998
The political leaders in Pakistan and India are currently not on talking terms. Nuclear and military establishments in the two countries are continuously flirting with dangerous military doctrines and concepts. World powers are pumping in military assistance to their respective allies in South Asia—assistance that can disturb the conventional military balance in the region with horrendous implications for nuclear deterrent relations.
A nuclear war in the Middle East could prove ecologically and environmentally disastrous for the region and potentially drag world powers into it. It's clear from the American threats to Iran that there is a danger of the Arabian Sea and the larger Indian Ocean becoming a theatre of war—a much-feared development that could prove disastrous for the economies of poor countries like Pakistan.
The above-mentioned nuclear taboo, which has persisted in the international system since World War II, is quite weak in the case of Pakistan. There are former military officials in Pakistan who claim that nuclear weapons have been incorporated into war-fighting plans by Pakistan's military planners since the 2002 military crisis between Pakistan and India when military mobilisation proved highly costly for the Pakistani government. Already, Pakistan is one of those rare countries that does not adhere to the "No First Use" policy in its nuclear strategy. In India, the pressure from the hardliners is already making the Indian government and strategists dilute their commitment to the "No First Use" policy as well, which was already in doubt after Pakistan showcased its tactical nukes in 1998. Indians themselves have also started casting doubts about their policies.
There are already signs in the ruling elites in both capitals and their respective military establishments that the fear of using nuclear weapons is diminishing
Israel is not a declared nuclear weapons state, but one of its extremist right-wing ministers in the Israeli government hinted toward possessing a nuclear bomb by Israel when he stated that the Israeli military should use its nuclear option against innocent civilians of Gaza. Israeli possession of nuclear weapons is one of the badly kept secrets of Western powers. US President Joe Biden, in his latest press talk, tried to defuse the situation first by dissociating Washington from any possible Israeli retaliation against Iran and second by discounting that the Israelis would retaliate by attacking Iranian nuclear sites. His strategic advisor would have briefed him that hitting a fully functional nuclear installation amounts to exercising the nuclear option without using a nuclear bomb. In such an eventuality, the Iranians would certainly hit back with a nuclear strike of their own, having proven that Israeli military sites are not beyond their reach.
Implications of a nuclear strike on Iran would not remain restricted to the territorial boundaries of Iran. This strike would rally public opinion in the Muslim World behind Iranian society, which would be treated as a victim of a nuclear strike. Pakistani society, with deep and age-old inclinations and feelings of Muslim brotherhood, would come into a frenzy of anti-West and anti-Israeli feelings. There is a possibility that in such a scenario, Pakistani society's anti-India feelings would be pushed into the background.
What kind of forces this possible nuclear strike against Iran would unleash in Pakistani society and in the larger Muslim world is not difficult to predict. Muslim societies have remained in the grip of extremist groups throughout the 20-year American occupation of Afghanistan. Iran, devastated by several Israeli nuclear weapons, could become the centre of attraction for Muslim extremist forces in the region. The uncontrollable nature of Muslim extremist forces would be something beyond the control of weak regional governments like Pakistan. On the other hand, an Israel whose society would be destroyed by the impact of Iranian nuclear weapons but whose military capability would still be intact would be extremely dangerous for an unstable Middle East.
Breaking the nuclear taboo in the Middle East will certainly lead to the lowering of the nuclear threshold in neighbouring South Asia. Much of the nuclear deterrent relations between Pakistan and India could be explained only in the context of the fact that since the Second World War, nuclear weapons have never been used by any country against its opponent. Once a nuclear weapon or several nuclear weapons are used—God forbid—in the Middle East, its use might be seen among strategic elites of the nuclear weapon states as a matter of routine. This lesson would be quickly taught by the strategic elites in New Delhi and Islamabad. There are already signs in the ruling elites in both capitals and their respective military establishments that the fear of using nuclear weapons is diminishing. Why would the Indian military flirt with the idea of a limited war and limited military incursions when they are aware that Pakistan military planners have made it clear that they would respond to such provocations with nuclear weapons? Pakistan's boasts about tactical nukes indicate the advent of the same fearlessness among the Pakistani military elite.
Washington should make a more forceful attempt to prevent the breaking of the nuclear taboo in the Middle East
So, what lesson will these military elites learn from the nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel? If, even after the nuclear exchange, Iran and Israel continue as functioning states, the incentive for regional military elites to flirt with the idea of making nuclear weapons part of the war fighting plans and strategy would be enormous.
In the post-Second World War international system, Washington and its strategic elites saw their interests in constructing a nuclear taboo in the world system which could define relations of deterrence between nuclear weapons states in the Cold War era. The post-Second World War was a time when everybody was predicting the start of the American century. The US was emerging as a dominant power in world affairs. Hence, the nuclear taboo was something that served the interests of the US well. The Americans were only interested in preventing the Soviets from advancing beyond Eastern Europe and into other parts of the Eurasian landmass, thus benefiting economically from the process of Europe's reconstruction and the revival of economic activity in Asia and Africa.
This is, thus, not simply about the Iranian and Israeli societies. This is about the entire world where experts in Western media are already predicting that the world economy could go into a deep recession in case of an all-out conflict between Iran and Israel. Washington should make a more forceful attempt to prevent the breaking of the nuclear taboo in the Middle East.
Let us hope and pray that Pakistani and Indian military elites will learn the right lessons from this conflict.