Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led ruling BJP’s quest to cross 400 seats in the upcoming parliamentary elections for its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) seems to be in jeopardy. Cracks are appearing in the party just before polling is set to begin, and if the Congress-led opposition, itself in disarray, doesn’t fail to cash in on BJP’s fumbles, chances are that the saffron party will barely be able to cobble up a simple majority.
The most surprising setback to the BJP is being reported from Gujarat where there is a fierce infighting with the state unit of the BJP and the party cadres are protesting against their own candidates. At several places, these protests have even turned into clashes. In Amreli, the clashes were so severe that several BJP local leaders are in hospital.
Gujarat is the home state of PM Modi and his lieutenant Home Minister Amit Shah. The BJP hasn’t lost a single seat out of the 26 parliamentary seats in the state since 2014, and has been in power in the state assembly for the past three decades.
Gujarat is also the state from where the BJP fought its first election in India when Bharatiya Jan Sangh – BJP’s predecessor – forayed into the electoral arena in the very first election of India in 1952.
Trouble started brewing in the BJP soon after it romped back to power in the state in 2022 with a record majority and had secured 156 out of 182 seats. However, the victory fervour soon withered. All the factions in the party like the Rajputs, Patels, Tribals and Dalits began to claim a higher share in the state machinery and development allocation for their respective regions.
The BJP hasn’t lost a single seat out of the 26 parliamentary seats in the state since 2014, and has been in power in the state assembly for the past three decades.
The squabbling scaled to its zenith last week when the party’s Rajkot candidate Parshottam Rupala took a jibe on Rajputs saying that “all Rajput kings collaborated with the colonial British and indulged in roti-beti relations with them.” The statement has singed the party and there is uproar demanding that Rupala should be pulled back from the electoral fray.
When BJP didn’t move to drop Rupala, Raj Shekhawat, a regional strongman and president of the hardline Karni Sena, the outfit of Rajputs that had hit the limelight because of its protests against the Deepika Padukone-starrer movie Padmavat, resigned from the party. He had joined the BJP before the Assembly polls in 2022.
The Rajputs are the strongest caste group in the state, wielding unparalleled clout in the Saurashtra region where there were more than 100 small Rajput princely kingdoms before 1947.
The furore over Rupal’s remarks, for which he later apologized, has become a daily affair, jeopardizing not only Rupala’s chances, but several other BJP candidates. The party campaigns are being cancelled and cadres are protesting outside BJP offices in every city. It has provided easy ammunition to the Congress-Aam Aadmi Party alliance, which is leaving no stone unturned to portray the BJP as anti-Rajput and anti-Gujarat pride party.
“It’s like the BJP is burning its own house. All efforts to douse the flames are failing. This is a very significant development as far as the chances of the BJP in the state are concerned."
Rajkot is also the constituency from where PM Modi made his electoral debut in 2001.
At least five other BJP candidates are facing dissent and open protests. These include seats in Sabarkantha, Rajkot, Vadodara, and Valsad districts. In addition, a letter has gone viral on social media, which asks the BJP state president, CR Patil, to change the party’s Junagadh candidate, Rajesh Chudasama. Meanwhile, Resistance from local leaders had already led to a change in the party candidate in Vadodara, Ranjan Bhatt.
Senior Gujarat journalist Gopi Maniar Ghanghar says that the infighting in Gujarat BJP seems ominous. “It’s like the BJP is burning its own house. All efforts to douse the flames are failing. This is a very significant development as far as the chances of the BJP in the state are concerned. Any parliamentary ticket awarded by BJP ensures 70% winning possibility. And thus, bickering among BJP cadres will deplete this graph sharply and spruce up chances of the Congress-AAP combine,” she said.
She added that the AAP has only fielded candidates on two seats – Bharuch and Bhavnagar. Bharuch was the home constituency of late Congress stalwart Ahmed Patel and both his son and daughter – Faisal and Mumtaz -- were aspirants this time. “But the Congress vacated this seat for AAP which is appearing making inroads into the electorate. They had fielded a Dalit, Koli, from Bhavnagar and Dalits of the area may also spring a surprise for the BJP even though the party appears strong thus far,” she added.
One more reason for dissent in the BJP, according to Ghanghar, is the parachuting of candidates from rival Congress and giving them tickets at the cost of veteran BJP workers.
If BJP fails to rein in dissenting party cadres and even PM and Shah don’t have ample time to canvas in the state, 5-6 seats will go to the Congress-AAP kitty. And it will be an alarm bell for the BJP.
But some commentators say that the revolt in the BJP will be assuaged once Modi and Shah will visit the state and call for party meetings. “There is no one who can say no to Modi. Two of his rallies in the state will even all the curves,” says a local Gujarati reporter who is freelancing for a national daily.
Kubool Ahmed, a Delhi-based political analyst, agrees that Modi and Shah have the power to bring all BJP workers in one line for a single cause and that is the third shot at the Delhi throne. But, he admits, that the task before them is monumental.
“See the election in Gujarat has been scheduled for May 7 – third phase. There is a gap of 11 days between third and second phase (April 26). This is the maximum gap in all of eight phases. This is, most likely, designed to give BJP top leadership enough time to campaign and calm down intra-party rebellion. After all, setbacks in Gujarat will herald descent of BJP and it will lead to the revival of the Congress,” he said.
However, if BJP fails to rein in dissenting party cadres and even PM and Shah don’t have ample time to canvas in the state, 5-6 seats will go to the Congress-AAP kitty. And it will be an alarm bell for the BJP, even if it manages to claw its third term.