The Indian subcontinent's military history is littered with situations where the introduction of new weapon systems has caused military instability between Pakistan and India. Immediately preceding the 1965 war, Pakistan received major supplies of military hardware from the United States, and the 1986-87 Brass Tacks military crisis, when India wanted to assert itself militarily after a major weapons system acquisition from Western countries as well as Soviet Union, immediately come to mind.
Apparently, the introduction of new weapons systems in the region appeared to have given the military planners in the South Asian dyad the confidence to assert themselves more forcefully vis-à-vis their military rival. During the Cold War, Washington and Moscow were the primary military suppliers to the region. Washington continues to be a major arms supplier to the South Asian region, with India replacing Pakistan as the major recipient.
During the past decade, the Indians have bought more than $20 billion worth of modern weaponry from Washington on the basis of transfer of technology. Pakistan, despite its dire financial situation, is not ready to give in in this arms race. Pakistan, although it cannot match India in the amount of dollars it can spend on weaponry, has also bought major weapons systems during the past ten years. In 1965, when Indian land forces crossed the international border in the Lahore and Sialkot sectors, fighting in Kashmir had been going on for quite some time. The accounts of the pre-war debate in Pakistani power corridors clearly indicate that Pakistan's recent acquisition from the United States was a factor in the decision to go to war, and at the same time, Indian plans to go on a shopping spree for military hardware was seen by Pakistani decision makers as a closing window of opportunity. Weapons acquisition was a factor on both sides of the international border.
In 1986-87, the Indian adventurist Chief of the Army Staff General Sunderji wanted to test his mechanized infantry’s capability to penetrate deep into Pakistani territory, which in his own words was necessary to deprive Pakistan of its nascent nuclear weapons capability. During the last 15 years, India has purchased weapons worth $20 billion from Washington. India plans to sign an agreement for the purchase of drones worth $3 billion dollars during Modi’s trip. This generosity could not be explained as part of the US military-industrial complex’s hunger for profit, “especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has generated tens of billions of dollars in European purchases in 2022 alone.” India is certainly emerging as a recipient of American military assistance on a large scale to make it a partner, if not a military ally, in deterring Chinese military assertiveness in the region, as well as the international stage.
Missile tests and occasional news stories in Indian media about the Indian scientific community’s claims related to success in building indigenous missile defense systems is the Pakistani and Indian military establishments' way of speaking to each other. These are tense moments in the military situation of our region, even if the local media doesn’t portray them as such.
Will history repeat itself? Will this region witness more military crises in the years ahead? What is the psychology, political and military beliefs, perceptions and understandings of Pakistani and Indian decision-makers while they are in the processes of acquiring military hardware for their respective militaries? One thing is for sure - the security situation in our region and its surrounding is not stable.
In such a situation, any regional event - big or small - can cause a major crisis to escalate towards conflict. For instance, there are signs that Israel’s recent claims of blocking Hamas rockets with its missile defense system Iron Dome, might have acted as a catalyst in Pakistan’s decision to flight test its latest ballistic missile system and multiple rockets - Ababeel and Fatah-II respectively, both of which are seen as a counter to India’s missile defense system, which it is building with help of technologies from several countries, including Israel.
Missile tests and occasional news stories in Indian media about the Indian scientific community’s claims related to success in building indigenous missile defense systems is the Pakistani and Indian military establishments' way of speaking to each other. These are tense moments in the military situation of our region, even if the local media doesn’t portray them as such. The wordings of Indian media stories about missile defense systems and ISPR press releases about successful missile tests are the languages they are using to speak to each other. You only have to interpret these stories and press releases to understand that they are implicit threats, and that they are not coming from minds which see peace as the default condition.
New weapons systems and the Gaza connection
On 27th December 2023, Pakistan conducted a flight test of the multi-launch rocket Fatah-II, the Pakistani military announced on the same day. The Fatah-II weapon system is equipped with state-of-the-art avionics, a sophisticated navigation system, and a unique flight trajectory. It is capable of engaging targets with high precision up to a range of 400 kilometers, added the military’s media wing. The flight test of the indigenously developed Fatah-I guided multi-launch rocket system was conducted on August 24, 2021, making Pakistan capable of delivering a conventional warhead. The multi-launch rocket system gave the Pakistan Army precision target engagement capability deep inside enemy territory, according to the ISPR.
The Fatah-II is distinguished by its advanced precision-targeting technology, utilizing a blend of satellite and inertial navigation systems. This integration ensures remarkable accuracy with an exceptionally low margin of error. Its sophisticated navigation system enables precision-guided strikes with a circular probable error (CEP) of less than 10 meters, exemplifying its high level of targeting precision.
Indian experts and Indian media commentators believe that should India acquire a credible defense mechanism, Islamabad fears this will boost New Delhi’s confidence in retaliating conventionally to its alleged state-sponsored, cross border terrorism. Congruently, many in India also believe that a BMD system will liberate New Delhi from Pakistan’s nuclear blackmail, as offered by its option-enhancing policy.
Pakistani experts describe Fatah-II as a “flat trajectory vehicle” which practically means that it can’t be traced by radar, and the media describe Fatah-II “as a potential challenger to the missile defense systems in the neighborhood.” “India, it may be recalled, is significantly upgrading its missile defense system, incorporating the advanced S-400 Triumf for long-range threats, the indigenous SAMAR for short-range defence, and the DRDO-developed VSHORADS for very short-range targets in addition to its emerging sea-based ballistic missile defence capabilities,” Pakistan’s leading newspaper, Dawn reported.
Both local and international experts agree that Fatah-II is the second flight test of a weapon system by Pakistan during the last two months which is aimed at acquiring the capability to penetrate India’s nascent missile defences. On 18 October 2023, Pakistan conducted its second test launch of the Ababeel medium-range ballistic missile, which is the first in South Asia to have reached the testing phase that has been designed to carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs)—another capability that indicate that the Ababeel ballistic missile is aimed at defeating India’s plans to create a missile defense system for its military and nuclear installations, as well as major cities.
A full-fledged arms race in South Asia is on. “An arms race is not new…. it has perpetually been on since 1947,” said Brig (retd.) Saad Muhammad, a military expert, who has served in key positions in GHQ.
Pakistan flight tested multiple warheads carrying Ababeel ballistic missiles 11 days after the Israelis claimed that their missile defense system, which goes by the name of Iron Dome, was more than 90 percent successful in shooting down Hamas’ rocket attacks on Israeli border cities and towns. It is pertinent to mention here that Indians have shown interest in buying an Israeli produced missile defense system similar to Iron Dome, and might already be in the process of integrating elements of the Israeli system into their own missile defense structures.
The Indians claim to be on the path to making the Pakistani nuclear deterrent redundant with the deployment of an Israeli made missile defense system. Pakistanis, with the flight test of multiple warheads carrying Ababeel ballistic missiles, made an attempt to demonstrate that they have capacity to defeat the Indian missile defense system. A full-fledged arms race in South Asia is on. “An arms race is not new…. it has perpetually been on since 1947,” said Brig (retd.) Saad Muhammad, a military expert, who has served in key positions in GHQ. The competition between ballistic missiles and anti-ballistic missile defense systems is an old one and this competition is now repeating itself in South Asia, said Syed Muhammad Ali, civilian expert on nuclear and missile related issues in South Asia.
In July 2013, Times of Israel reported that India had shown readiness to resume talks for the acquisition of Iron Dome as Israel was now willing to transfer technology along with the system. Indian experts and Indian media commentators believe that should India acquire a credible defense mechanism, Islamabad fears this will boost New Delhi’s confidence in retaliating conventionally to its alleged state-sponsored, cross border terrorism. Congruently, many in India also believe that a BMD system will liberate New Delhi from Pakistan’s nuclear blackmail, as offered by its option-enhancing policy.
Why is Pakistan sensitive to Indian military developments?
Pakistan remains sensitive to any Indian military development and Islamabad has historically compensated for its lack of scientific prowess and international collaborators by investing indigenously in technology capable of countering India’s developments. Pakistan has already responded to this development in the form of its allegedly successful MIRV (multiple independently-targetable reentry vehicle) capability, touted to be built with Chinese assistance, further giving it credibility.
Indian experts believe that the Indian BMD system will be more of a technology demonstrator, rather than a plausible defensive mechanism, “At this time, the Prithvi ADS had only been tested nine times. The US National Missile Defense (NMD) program, by contrast, has undergone a few hundred tests, and has been in the developmental phase since the 1960s. Even today, the US Administration remains sceptical about the feasibility of a nation-wide missile defense system. Therefore, DRDO’s claims of a ‘reliable’ shield system cannot be taken seriously” Amit R. Saksena, an Indian military expert wrote in an article.
India is developing a missile defense system which goes by the name of LR-SAM and according to Indian media, it will feature interception capabilities comparable to the Russian S-400 Triumf air defence system, which the Indian Air Force recently integrated. The system is set to employ long-range surveillance and fire control radars and will utilise various interceptor missiles capable of hitting hostile targets at distances of 150 kilometers, 250 kilometers, and 350 kilometers. Recently Air Marshal Anil Chopra (retired), head of the Centre for Air Power Studies, told media that the Indian military is also eyeing the American NASAM system for protection of the national capital, New Delhi.
Conflicting opinions about the tests among Pakistani strategic experts
Two kinds of opinions exist among Pakistani defense analysts to explain the timing of Pakistan’s flight tests of the Ababeel ballistic missile and Fatah-II multi launch rockets within a span of two months and immediately after Israel claimed major successes in intercepting over 5,000 rockets launched by Hamas from Gaza on October 7,2023. Both opinions agree that these flight-tests are aimed at demonstrating Pakistan’s capability to penetrate deep into Indian territory, while also defeating the missile defense system that the Indians have deployed so far.
However, one defense analyst completely disagrees that the Israeli claim of demonstrating the capability to block Hamas rockets was the catalyst behind the Pakistani decision to demonstrate its capability. The other opinion concedes that the regional events might have contributed to the Pakistani decision to flight test its weapons.
Brig (retd.) Saad Muhammad told this scribe that the Fatah-II is a flat trajectory vehicle, which is more difficult for radar to detect and destroy. Ballistic missiles have a trajectory where they enter space and reenter the Earth's atmosphere, and during this period they are detected by the enemy’s radar, which then issues instructions for its destruction. Flat trajectory vehicles cannot be detected by a radar attached with an anti-missile defense system. He agrees that a full-fledged arms race is on between Pakistan and India, “these (two states) have been in an arms race since 1947,” he said.
"Indian elections are around the corner, and the jingoism of the Indian military and BJP extremists is on the rise, which is evident from the statements emanating from across the border. My assessment is that Pakistan wanted to convey to Indian decision makers and military planners that they need to take into account this new military capability if they are planning a false flag operation immediately before the elections, which has now become a pattern with India.”
Syed Muhammad Ali, nuclear deterrence and missile expert, told this scribe that India doesn’t need Israeli Iron Dome for three reasons: Indian geography is much larger than Israel’s, and Iron Dome may be good for Potohar-sized Israel, but can’t be all that effective for a much larger Indian geographical area. “Iron Dome is defending Israel against Hamas rockets, which are more primitive than the rockets used by Germans in the Second World War,” he said. “India on the other hand is faced with much larger and much more sophisticated arsenal from China and Pakistan. Besides, India is in possession of a sophisticated S-400 air defense system and even this cannot protect India from Pakistan missiles, says Syed Muhammad Ali.
He said that the Pakistani flight test of Ababeel and Fatah-II fulfilled technical, operational and signaling requirements of Pakistan armed forces. “They have been working on these missiles and this was the time when they wanted to test the system’s reliability. This was the time, when after meeting the technical requirements, they wanted to meet the operational requirement of handing the system over to a military formation for operationalizing the missile system.”
“Thirdly, Indian elections are around the corner, and the jingoism of the Indian military and BJP extremists is on the rise, which is evident from the statements emanating from across the border. My assessment is that Pakistan wanted to convey to Indian decision makers and military planners that they need to take into account this new military capability if they are planning a false flag operation immediately before the elections, which has now become a pattern with India,” he said.