Four significant developments took place last week. First, local elections have reaffirmed political loyalties to the PMLN in Punjab, MQM in urban Sindh and PPP in rural Sindh, the significant loser being the PTI in both provinces. Second, the Sindh government and military establishment have both taken a step back from their maximalist positions to resolve the issue of the extension and scope of the Rangers’ anti-terrorist operations in the province. Third, the ice has melted in Indo-Pak relations with a meeting between the two prime ministers in Paris, followed by a meeting between the two National Security Advisors in Bangkok and the subsequent arrival of the Indian foreign minister Sushma Swaraj in Islamabad to attend the Heart of Asia Conference and chat with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Foreign Affairs Advisor Sartaj Aziz. Fourth, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani returned to Pakistan after a year to restart the dialogue with the civil-military establishment over how to nudge the Taliban to the negotiating table. Going forward, can we therefore expect 2016 to be the harbinger of better civil-military relations and political stability at home and improved ties with neighbours India and Afghanistan?
The local elections have nailed the canard in Imran Khan’s relentless campaign to allege electoral rigging to cover up for his loss of popularity across the country. The PTI has been hammered in Sindh by the traditional PPP-MQM voter and swept aside in Punjab by the PMLN partisan, reaffirming the results of the 2013 general elections. The shock has compelled Khan to take stock of his party and make plans to hold intra-party elections and build a fighting machine. To be sure, this won’t be easy. The PTI is riven with dissent between regional groups, between idealists and opportunists and between egotistical leaders pushing and shoving for prominence. But this exercise should also keep Khan off the streets and give some space to the PMLN government to flog its economic agenda and stop laying the blame for failure at Khan’s door. All this is for the good.
Thanks to some last minute backtracking by all stakeholders, the Sindh government and the military establishment have arrived at a new modus operandi to minimise conflict over their respective interests. The Rangers’ writ will be extended to all of Sindh but they will not arrest MQM and PPP politicians without a formal nod from the Chief Minister. This step will restrain the Rangers from encroaching into the political domain of the provincial parties while giving the military a free hand to go after terrorists and gangsters and foreign agents. If the deadlock had continued, a very dangerous situation would have arisen which would have put PM Nawaz Sharif in a tight corner. If he had sided with the military, the PPP and MQM would have joined hands with Imran Khan to destabilise the PMLN government. But its resolution has strengthened Mr Sharif’s hand against any potential encroachment by the military in pursuit of the National Action Plan in Punjab.
The Modi government in India has also backtracked from its hard anti-Pakistan stance following its electoral rout in Bihar where such propaganda failed to deliver dividends. Subsequently, some quiet diplomacy out of media glare has suddenly opened up avenues for reducing conflict. This means that we should see some positive results viz border tensions, sporting links and trade concessions. This will enable the Pakistani military establishment to focus on resolving more pressing issues on its western border with Afghanistan.
President Ashraf Ghani’s visit is critical to Pak-Afghan relations. Last year, promises were made by both sides about the steps each side would take to build mutual trust and push for peace talks with the Taliban. But vested interests on both sides put paid to that initiative. The problem was highlighted when news of Mullah Omar’s death two years ago on the eve of talks with the Taliban in Pakistan – allegedly at the behest of anti-Ghani and anti-Pakistan forces in Afghanistan – led to an abrupt cancellation of the moot and raised serious doubts over the leadership and authority of his successor Mullah Akhtar Mansoor. Since then, a power struggle has ensued inside the Taliban that makes any resumption of dialogue difficult. All the more reason, therefore, for the others in the region – Pakistan, India, US and President Ashraf Ghani - to put their weight behind the Taliban faction that is ready to engage in constructive talks to end the conflict. A realistic assessment of possible scenarios and mutually beneficial approaches is desperately needed to stop the regional situation from deteriorating to everyone’s disadvantage.
One thing is critical to all these developments: stability of civil-military relations in Pakistan. General Sharif and Mr Sharif need to see eye to eye on most such issues. Unfortunately, as we have seen, ill-advised public statements by both sides can act as spoilers no less than aggressive attempts to encroach on the ambit of each other’s writ. Going forward, political maturity must be demonstrated by keeping personal egos in check.
The local elections have nailed the canard in Imran Khan’s relentless campaign to allege electoral rigging to cover up for his loss of popularity across the country. The PTI has been hammered in Sindh by the traditional PPP-MQM voter and swept aside in Punjab by the PMLN partisan, reaffirming the results of the 2013 general elections. The shock has compelled Khan to take stock of his party and make plans to hold intra-party elections and build a fighting machine. To be sure, this won’t be easy. The PTI is riven with dissent between regional groups, between idealists and opportunists and between egotistical leaders pushing and shoving for prominence. But this exercise should also keep Khan off the streets and give some space to the PMLN government to flog its economic agenda and stop laying the blame for failure at Khan’s door. All this is for the good.
Thanks to some last minute backtracking by all stakeholders, the Sindh government and the military establishment have arrived at a new modus operandi to minimise conflict over their respective interests. The Rangers’ writ will be extended to all of Sindh but they will not arrest MQM and PPP politicians without a formal nod from the Chief Minister. This step will restrain the Rangers from encroaching into the political domain of the provincial parties while giving the military a free hand to go after terrorists and gangsters and foreign agents. If the deadlock had continued, a very dangerous situation would have arisen which would have put PM Nawaz Sharif in a tight corner. If he had sided with the military, the PPP and MQM would have joined hands with Imran Khan to destabilise the PMLN government. But its resolution has strengthened Mr Sharif’s hand against any potential encroachment by the military in pursuit of the National Action Plan in Punjab.
The Modi government in India has also backtracked from its hard anti-Pakistan stance following its electoral rout in Bihar where such propaganda failed to deliver dividends. Subsequently, some quiet diplomacy out of media glare has suddenly opened up avenues for reducing conflict. This means that we should see some positive results viz border tensions, sporting links and trade concessions. This will enable the Pakistani military establishment to focus on resolving more pressing issues on its western border with Afghanistan.
President Ashraf Ghani’s visit is critical to Pak-Afghan relations. Last year, promises were made by both sides about the steps each side would take to build mutual trust and push for peace talks with the Taliban. But vested interests on both sides put paid to that initiative. The problem was highlighted when news of Mullah Omar’s death two years ago on the eve of talks with the Taliban in Pakistan – allegedly at the behest of anti-Ghani and anti-Pakistan forces in Afghanistan – led to an abrupt cancellation of the moot and raised serious doubts over the leadership and authority of his successor Mullah Akhtar Mansoor. Since then, a power struggle has ensued inside the Taliban that makes any resumption of dialogue difficult. All the more reason, therefore, for the others in the region – Pakistan, India, US and President Ashraf Ghani - to put their weight behind the Taliban faction that is ready to engage in constructive talks to end the conflict. A realistic assessment of possible scenarios and mutually beneficial approaches is desperately needed to stop the regional situation from deteriorating to everyone’s disadvantage.
One thing is critical to all these developments: stability of civil-military relations in Pakistan. General Sharif and Mr Sharif need to see eye to eye on most such issues. Unfortunately, as we have seen, ill-advised public statements by both sides can act as spoilers no less than aggressive attempts to encroach on the ambit of each other’s writ. Going forward, political maturity must be demonstrated by keeping personal egos in check.