Pakistani society is faced with a potent and multifaceted terror threat from its western border. The threat itself cannot be summed up simply by blaming only one terror organization like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The threat doesn’t merely stem from the fact that terror attacks are becoming an almost daily occurrence. It is much bigger and more complex than that.
Let me explain.
In Pakistan’s west, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Afghanistan, a former militant and terror organization that waged a successful insurgency against the American forces, has assumed the mantle of a state. Now they have an army, they have the state machinery under their control, they have the vast resources of a territory, including revenues from agricultural economics under their control. To give you an idea of what kind of state machinery they are running, let me explain that their regular army has a battalion of suicide bombers, which, according to report is deployed close to Afghanistan’s border with the Central Asian States.
Taliban intelligence, which is being controlled by their Interior Minister Siraj-ud-Din Haqqani, is playing host to foreign militant groups, which originally come from different neighboring countries, but have been based in Afghanistan for decades. Afghan intelligence is presently managing these foreign militant groups and their fighters, according to the nature of Afghan Taliban’s relations with their country of origin. For instance, Afghan Taliban don’t have good relations with Tajikistan, therefore Tajik militant groups are based close to Afghanistan’s border with Tajikistan, and they have been equipped with the latest weaponry left behind by the withdrawing American forces. The Afghan Taliban have good relations with China, therefore Chinese militant groups have been relocated away from Afghanistan’s small border with China. The Pakistani militant group TTP and some of its fighters were relocated away from Pakistani borders for some time, but these fighters have now again shifted close to Pakistani borders. This is only one part of the story.
A faction in the Afghan Taliban is still assisting the TTP in their terror attacks on Pakistani security forces. The Taliban intelligence still plays host to TTP leaders and fighters in Afghanistan.
Our western frontier is deeply unstable for other reasons as well. We have deeply entrenched pockets of militancy and a pool of militant fighters who are attracted to more radical and more lethal terror groups and in the process, shift their loyalties towards the emerging and rising star of militancy, terrorism and extremism. In the Pak-Afghan border areas, the third generation of militants have taken up arms against other regional states and militaries since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
First, they fought against communist states and the Soviet military with assistance coming from the American CIA and the Pakistani security apparatus. There was a civil war in which the militant groups fought it out with each other. Afterwards, militancy changed its target and took up arms against the American forces which invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and their allies, the Pakistani military and intelligence services which provided logistic and intelligence support to the former. This third generation of militants has accumulated the experience of fighting against three state-of-the-art militaries, including the Soviets, the Americans and the Pakistani.
There has been another strategic shift in the situation since the American withdrawal. The third generation of militants in this region have taken up arms against the Pakistani state and military. There is no foreign military presence in the region to curb the vast pool of militants that operate in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Americans have left, and none of the regional military powers like China, Russia and Iran seem to be in the mood of sending troops into Afghanistan. There are signs that these regional military powers want to use the Afghan Taliban as their proxy to curb the rise of more radical and more lethal Sunni militant groups in Afghanistan. The problem is that relations between the Afghan Taliban and these regional military powers has hardly had a transformative impact on the nature and character of the Afghan Taliban. The Afghan Taliban are not ready to part company with the Sunni militant and terror organizations which were in Afghanistan even before they assumed power in Kabul in August 2021. For instance, a faction in the Afghan Taliban is still assisting the TTP in their terror attacks on Pakistani security forces. The Taliban intelligence still plays host to TTP leaders and fighters in Afghanistan.
Pakistan is facing a complicated security situation, where one terror group's loss necessarily becomes another terrorist group's gain.
The terror and militant organizations fighting against the Pakistani state and military have a complete regional ecosystem that gives them the nourishment to grow, expand and continue their terror activity. Anyone familiar with this ecosystem doesn’t need to put in much effort to understand that this ecology of terror will not disappear by simply smashing the terror network that we dub as TTP. Experts say that there exists a pool of militants and fighters that are the offspring of this ecosystem: if you smash one terror network, they will join another one.
Pakistan is facing a complicated security situation, where one terror group's loss necessarily becomes another terrorist group's gain. Remember that IS-K started its career in the region when a Salafist group in Eastern Afghanistan previously associated with the Afghan Taliban parted company with the mother organization and joined the ranks of IS-K, which had just started recruitment in 2014. This means that the TTP’s loss would most likely be the IS-K’s gain in Pakistani territory and in Afghanistan, and thus would in turn exacerbate Pakistan’s security problems.
Signs of how the TTP can mutate into something more obscure appeared over the last three months when a number of terror outfits emerged in the Pak-Afghan border areas—whether these groups are offshoots of TTP or simply new organizations drawing from the existing pool of militants is yet unknown. Some experts believe that these outfits might be a part of the TTP strategy to deflect pressure coming from Afghan Taliban government not to attack the Pakistani military or Chinese interests in the region. This became apparent when the TTP distanced itself from the attack on Chinese nationals in Bisham and the responsibility was claimed by one of the emerging splinter terror groups.
A senior military official said that since 2021, the TTP has changed its strategy from controlling territory to focus on guerilla warfare and terrorist attacks, which don’t necessarily require a concentration of fighters in any territory.
Faced with an increased level of violence across the country, the Pakistani government is coming under pressure to make a determined effort to smash the power of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan in the north western parts of the country on an immediate basis. Popular voices, especially coming from the media, are increasingly demanding that the government launches a full-scale military operation against the TTP before it is too late. The Pakistan military is engaged in small scale counter insurgency operations in the North Western parts of the country, aimed at taking out small cells of the TTP operating in different localities in the Pak-Afghan border areas. During the past six months, the military has carried out hundreds of small-scale raids into the hideouts of TTP in Pak-Afghan border areas.
A senior government official confided to this scribe that so far, the government has not even started contemplating a large-scale operation against the TTP. The apex security institution, the National Security Committee has on several occasions discussed the security situation in Pak-Afghan border areas, but Pakistan’s military and political leadership have not discussed launching a full-scale operation. However, increased levels of violence in Pakistan, which include suicide attacks against the Pakistan military and foreign nationals, have caused a stir, where a large number of segments are demanding direct kinetic operations against the TTP.
Pakistani military experts, however, are of the opinion that no large-scale military operation against the TTP was possible in the current security situation. Firstly, unlike earlier military operations between 2014-2018, when the TTP was controlling a large piece of land in the Pak-Afghan border areas, this time round the TTP fighting cadre is scattered all over the border areas and was not concentrated in any one geographical region. A senior military official said that since 2021, the TTP has changed its strategy from controlling territory to focus on guerilla warfare and terrorist attacks, which don’t necessarily require a concentration of fighters in any territory. “The TTP is now scattered all over the Pak-Afghan border areas and we are carrying out raids all over this territory to flush them out”, said a senior military official.
Pakistan doesn’t have the kind of financial wherewithal and military strength to destroy the terror ecology that seems to be all pervasive in the Pak-Afghan border regions.
The second reason for not launching a large-scale military operation is that the Pakistan government is in a rather difficult financial situation at the moment. The Pakistan government, on several occasions during the past two years, has warded off the threat of default on its international financial obligations because of bailouts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Senior security experts are of the opinion that despite all the pressure Pakistan is facing, ultimately the Pakistani government and military will decide against a full-scale operation primarily because Pakistan does not have enough financial resources for such an operation. Any large-scale military operation against the TTP will likely not remain restricted to the Pak-Afghan border areas for reasons that are too obvious to Pakistani military commanders, “A segment of the Afghan Taliban are supporting TTP and they would not remain neutral in case their brethren in Pakistan face the military’s full blown wrath” said an official.
Two things are clear: first, Pakistan doesn’t have the kind of financial wherewithal and military strength to destroy the terror ecology that seems to be all pervasive in the Pak-Afghan border regions. Second, the international community’s interests in Afghanistan and in this region more broadly have faded away over the last decade. It is clear that Pakistan is all alone in this rather detestable situation.