Imran Khan, the cricketer-turned-politician, is now considered a king of narratives in Pakistan. Since his ouster from office through a no-confidence vote in April 2022, the political scene in Pakistan Imran Khan has dominated the popular narrative. Despite the otherwise dubious narrative on the 'cipher', he was still able to sell it like hotcakes. Within a few months of being ousted, his popularity had skyrocketed by July 2022, and he proved all the political pundits and media houses of Pakistan wrong when his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which had been losing all by-elections before April 2022, defeated the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in its stronghold of Punjab by winning 15 out of 20 Punjab Assembly seats up for grabs. He kept taking U-turns on his narrative when trying to woo the same USA which, only months earlier, he had blamed for conspiring against his government. Out of all the political drama leading up to the February 2024 general elections, his party, PTI, emerged as the single largest party per the results announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan. Such was the strength of his populist narrative that this feat was achieved despite the fact that the all-powerful Pakistani establishment had left no stone unturned to throw him and his party out of the political arena.
But my understanding is that Imran Khan is now committing major political mistakes that may blunt his narrative, make it rudderless, and ultimately turn his populism toothless by the time Pakistan next goes to the polls. The political optics that his party recently created provided the PML-N with a new life and hopes of regaining its traditional stronghold in central Punjab. Images from PTI's recent protests in Islamabad and then the language used by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur in his fiery speeches have turned the political battle into an inter-provincial tussle of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa versus Punjab.
Maryam Nawaz Sharif is not only trying to develop a narrative of performance delivery and development versus the "jalado" (burn it), "band kardo" (shut down businesses), and "dhawa boldo" (attack) but also giving the impression that she is the only saviour who is standing in shining armour against the frequent and intensifying attacks from PTI's Pashtun support base on Punjab
The way Gandapur repeatedly threatened: "Islamabad/Punjab per dhawa bolein gay" (We shall launch an attack/assault on Islamabad/Punjab) and the language he uses against Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif and the federal government all create very negative optics for the PTI — which claims to be the only national level political party left in Pakistan. Moreover, Gandapur's repeated calls for upholding Pashtun honour and the way he rallies people from KP to march towards Islamabad again and again create images suggesting that Pashtuns are marching on the federal capital and Punjab under PTi's flag. In one such speech, Gandapur even mentioned the 17 raids undertaken by the Mahmud of Ghazni into Punjab to annex parts of Punjab. All this provides Punjabi nationalist groups an opportunity to connect the attacks of Gandapur with the attacks of Afghan invaders like Ahmed Shah Abdali and Nadir Shah on Punjab.
Imran Khan and the PTI should understand their quarrel with the federal government will have no weight without garnering support from the masses in Punjab. Any attempts at giving rise to feelings of Punjabi ethnicity could directly harm their political future in Punjab. By their repeated attacks (dhawa bolna) on Islamabad and Punjab, they are themselves creating circumstances in which Punjabi nationalism is bound to rise. The PTI leadership fails to understand that any rise of Punjabi ethno-nationalism will directly benefit the PML-N in regaining its popularity in the heartland of Punjab.
There are several indicators of this new shift in the PML-N narrative, which can be observed if looked at carefully. As chief minister of Punjab, Maryam Nawaz Sharif is not only trying to develop a narrative of performance delivery and development versus the "jalado" (burn it), "band kardo" (shut down businesses), and "dhawa boldo" (attack) but also giving the impression that she is the only saviour who is standing in shining armour against the frequent and intensifying attacks from PTI's Pashtun support base on Punjab. On March 9, while addressing a gathering at the Al Hamra Hall to commemorate Punjab Culture Day, Punjab CM Maryam Nawaz Sharif underscored the need for promoting linguistic pride among Punjabis and announced the introduction of Punjabi as a subject in the schools of Punjab.
Recently, the Punjab assembly amended its rules to allow members to speak up in Punjabi without asking for permission. On October 31, PM-N MPA from Toba Tek Singh, Amjad Ali Javed, opened up in Punjabi in the assembly. Indicating towards the opposition PTI members, he said: "Aye panj panj hazar rupay uty Afghani leyake paunjabyan dey uty charhai na krn" (They must not attack Punjabis using Afghans who they hired for Rs5,000 each). He went on to refer to the historical attacks on Punjab from the North: "Sadyan di tareekh aye ithy baar baar charhai hondi rahi aye, ay os tareekh nun na duharain" (For centuries, Punjab has been repeatedly attacked; they musn't repeat that history).
Gandapur has indicated that this is going to be the final attack (Dhawa) on Islamabad and has asked PTI supporters to inform their parents and families to prepare for their funerals in case they do not return. In my humble opinion, such open threats will only strengthen the process of ethnicisation of Punjab, and slowly and gradually, the PTI will lose ground in Punjab
In the same session, the Punjab Assembly unanimously passed a resolution to make Punjabi a compulsory subject in all schools of Punjab. Moreover, the Punjabi Parchar will host the second International Punjabi Conference at the Qaddafi Stadium in Lahore from November 18 to 20 in coordination with the Punjab government.
Among all this hullaballoo came the announcements that bids had been launched to buy shares in the national flag carrier PIA and launching Punjab Air and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Air by the respective chief ministers of the two provinces. The news consequently went viral.
The ethnicisation of Punjab and the narrative of Punjab versus KP or Punjabis versus Pashtuns is a troubling trend not only for national politics but more so for a national party like PTI and a leader like Imran Khan. So far, Imran Khan and PTI's leadership appears to be either unaware or careless in this regard as they are themselves helping strengthen the narrative. The PTI now has a clear and dominant Pashtun face, as most of its top leadership hails from KP. Moreover, the Punjabi nationalists blame PTI for filling the bureaucracy in Punjab and the centre with Pashtuns during their rule.
There are reports of a 'final' call being issued for protests around mid-November by the PTI in a last-ditch effort to spring Imran Khan from jail. Gandapur has indicated that this is going to be the final attack (Dhawa) on Islamabad and has asked PTI supporters to inform their parents and families to prepare for their funerals in case they do not return. In my humble opinion, such open threats will only strengthen the process of ethnicisation of Punjab, and slowly and gradually, the PTI will lose ground in Punjab, eventually reducing itself to a party mainly in KP with some pockets of support in Karachi and South Punjab.
If such a scenario comes to pass, I can foresee a very interesting political scenario developing in Pakistan. The resulting political scene in Pakistan will become a mixture of the political landscape of Switzerland and the USA. Like Switzerland, Pakistan will have a consolidated vote bank split between three national-level parties in three provinces — the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) in Sindh, the PTI in KP and PML-N in Central Punjab. Hence, the three national-level political parties may claim an almost equal share of the consolidated vote bank in those three regions. This will leave three 'swing' regions (like in the USA) — South Punjab, Balochistan and Karachi. Among those three regions with swing votes, South Punjab could have the deciding vote, and most probably, it will be that the party which wins in South Punjab shall form the central government or a coalition of any two main parties may form the central government.
I am not sure if such a political landscape will strengthen the federal structure in Pakistan, like it has in Switzerland, and bring about more stability. I fear that it will require political sagacity, politics of negotiations and reconciliation, which is not part of the political culture of Pakistan yet. Therefore, we might observe greater political instability and unrest until all this settles. We should not forget the role of our all-powerful establishment. How they react to these developments and what they do shall also impact the final outcome.