The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) was established by Russia and China in 2001 to primarily focus on strengthening defence and security against terrorism, fundamentalism, and separatism. Its member countries, such as Pakistan and China, have contributed significantly to the organisation, particularly through its security structure, i.e. the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS). Through this initiative, they partake in counterterrorism protocols and information sharing to curb any activities pertaining to terrorism. Imperatively, Pakistan's geographic landscape becomes significant in countering terrorist activities, given its connection with projects such as China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Recently, the 24th SCO meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan, emphasised the urgency of security, considering current global dynamics marked by conflict and chaos. Thus, the heightened emphasis on counterterrorism will continue being a key point in all summits to come, with Pakistan next in line.
To begin with, it is important to note that two of the most globally influential states involved in the summit will be China and Russia – both of which are instrumental in shaping the political world order as we know it today. As mentioned above, China's stance will incorporate amplified security concerns, particularly aimed at Pakistan and maintaining their long-term partnership and protect regional economic interests, namely the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). From a critical viewpoint and judging by the latter's past - which has been entangled in complex affairs often tainted with extremism, separatism and terrorism - China's concerns do hold considerable weight. Parallel to that, Russia aims to integrate itself in the Central Asian sphere and increase its influence. Since Russia is at odds with the West, it only makes sense that it will seek to consolidate power in Asia, and organisations such as the SCO become the perfect avenue for amassing support. Having said that, it is expected that both Russia and China will aim to enhance multilateral cooperation – vouching for regional security, safety, and economic prosperity.
Interestingly, despite the historic rivalry between nuclear-tipped but hostile neighbours, India and Pakistan, the former has actively participated in the summits, prioritising economic partnerships and advocating for peace in the region. Both nations constitute a complicated past and unique political dynamics that render any cooperation between the two vain. The feeling of insecurity shared between both nations is not limited to their borders; in fact, it becomes a trial of its own within the SCO. However, the fact that India participated in the 2024 Astana summit shows that the country understands the importance of diplomatic dialogue in strengthening regional security as opposed to fixating on the India-Pakistan conflict and spreading further instability. Expectedly, India's Foreign Minister S Jaishankar will participate in the SCO summit in Pakistan. That is not to say that cooperation within the SCO would signal bilateral relations between the two countries; it is only a step forward in establishing peace in the region, at least in the context of broader challenges such as extremism.
It is expected that dialogue within the summit would consist of reducing reliance on the Western financial structure, particularly the US dollar and SWIFT, stressing the importance of strengthening local currencies
From a (neo-) realist perspective, all states aim to protect their national interests, even if it means participating in a regional summit with an enemy state. Hence, India would not want to lose out on an opportunity to further its relations with powerful countries such as China and Russia on the shallow basis of its animosity against Pakistan. Similarly, it would also not be wise for Pakistan to display such intentions, given its economic dependence on China. Yet, all hope is not lost – multilateral settings often lay the foundation for diplomatic peace between nations. Perhaps, in times to come, the SCO could become a catalyst for diplomacy between the two countries. The fact, however, remains that SCO will continue to function even if relations between India and Pakistan become increasingly fraught because, in the current context, regional institutions have become far more influential and promising. Thus, building alliances with core nations means securing your position against potential existential threats.
In the ongoing summit, members are likely to advocate for all that the organisation stands for – security, peace, counterterrorism, regional diplomacy, and economic partnerships. It is expected that dialogue within the summit would consist of reducing reliance on the Western financial structure, particularly the US dollar and SWIFT, stressing the importance of strengthening local currencies. It is evident that this stance originates from member states that are at odds with the US – Russia, China, and Iran. They would, very obviously, want to build a financial mechanism that rivals the West and become the financial harbingers of the world—or, at least, Asia. Of course, Russia and China stand at the pinnacle of this transition since both nations have successfully created alternative systems, including China's CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) and Russia's SPFS (System for Transfer of Financial Messages). This is their attempt to curtail the impact of sanctions imposed by the West. As a result of championing discussions on alternative financial mechanisms, they most likely aim at enhancing financial trade between member states and counter Western institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. However, countries like Pakistan, which are allied with the US and enjoy its patronage through loans, may find it hard to resist external pressures through international financial institutions.
On the other hand, Pakistan also benefits from China-backed projects such as CPEC. India's position, however, is much more balanced. It is an undeniable fact that India has established itself as a sturdy economic powerhouse and, hence, is not financially dependent on either the West or China in the way Pakistan is. While India continues to maintain cordial relations with the US, it also pushes for regional financial cooperation. By comparison, Pakistan stands on a far more slippery slope.
In today's globalised world, it is essential for countries to collaborate and create a world without the challenges of terrorism, separatism and violent extremism. Yet, the recurring terrorist attacks expose an evident gap in the structure that needs to be addressed
Thus, to effectively address these issues, it is pertinent that future SCO summits include dialogue on counterterrorism practices that ensure the security of all citizens within the region. The fact that Chinese convoys had been attacked in Karachi just a week before it was set to host the SCO summit underscores the importance of articulating tangible policy measures that counter terrorist forces within the country. Due to the attack carried out on Monday, October 7, 2024, two Chinese workers lost their lives while eight others were injured. Terrorism is a major challenge to China-Pakistan relations, which are grounded in strategic cooperative friendship.
However, Pakistani authorities ought to keep in mind that alliances can only work if the protection of foreign citizens is prioritised. Although Pakistani authorities have condemned the attack and extended support to China, mere statements are not enough. Terrorist attacks on the Chinese have happened before and may occur again in the future unless the root cause of the issue is identified and dealt with effectively. As highlighted earlier, all states prioritise their national interest in the face of an existential threat. The loss of the Chinese convoys near Karachi airport is not just lives lost but also puts to the test once more bilateral trust between the two neighbouring countries. If Pakistan repeatedly fails to protect the nationals of its alliance partners─ in this Shanghai Cooperation Organisation─ it may lose political and diplomatic, if not commercial, support from the key actors. Moreover, failure to counter terrorism would carry severe consequences domestically, too, for Pakistan is already facing ethno-nationalist challenges posed by organisations such as the Baloch Yakjethi Committee (BYC) and the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM).
Moreover, terrorism impacts a country's social, political, and economic infrastructure, making it unfit for forming alliances and participating in multilateral corporations. In today's globalised world, it is essential for countries to collaborate and create a world without the challenges of terrorism, separatism and violent extremism. Yet, the recurring terrorist attacks expose an evident gap in the structure that needs to be addressed. It is time to carve out the root causes behind terrorist activities – poverty, lack of education, ideological fanaticism, and external interferences, i.e. India's support to non-state actors.
Policies that directly deal with the aforementioned issues should be prioritised at the SCO meeting to make the founding principles of the organisation a reality. With that said, a lot must be fixed within the mechanisms of the organisation. Firstly, quick intelligence sharing is key in counterterrorism – by building effective avenues for communication, member states can act quickly and potentially curb terrorist attacks. Secondly, coordination in military operations is critical in preventing attacks – this can be done through mutual training of the armed forces of all members on counterinsurgency tactics. Lastly and most importantly, resource sharing is absolutely pertinent in building cooperation between all members of SCO. Notably, some members, such as China and Russia, have access to the latest technology, while those in Central Asia, for instance, do not. As long as this divide exists, it will become increasingly difficult for SCO members to draft and implement policies at the same pace. Unless these challenges are tackled, the vicious cycle of terrorism, violence, and extremism might never cease to exist.