Pakistan’s military and security doctrine continues to be specifically focused on tackling the internal enemy—terrorists, militants and extremists. Pakistani security forces are still specifically focused on dealing with the internal threat, despite monumental changes that are taking place in our region as well as other parts of the world.
Pakistani land forces during the past two years have been actively engaged in tackling two insurgencies—Taliban led insurgency in North West and Baloch separatists led insurgency in South West. In the north west, the frequency of exchanges of fire between Pakistan land forces deployed in the area and militant groups which are hiding in the area have tremendously increased in the past few months. During the month of October, more than two dozen incidents of heavy exchange of fire between militants and Pakistani military took place in the Pak-Afghan border areas. At the senior government level, Pakistani leaders have openly accused the Afghan Taliban of supporting elements of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, who are hiding in border cities and towns of Afghanistan and launching cross border attacks from their hideouts.
After coming under pressure from Pakistani Taliban, the Afghan Taliban regime has arrested some of the members of Pakistani Taliban from border cities and towns of Afghanistan. However, this has failed to prevent Pakistani Taliban attacks on Pakistani security forces in Pak-Afghan border towns. In 2017, Pakistan military claimed to have broken the back of militant groups in Pak-Afghan border areas. However, after the Taliban takeover of Kabul in August 2021, the Pakistani Taliban have revived their activities.
Balochistan has witnessed a massive rise of violence since the start of an unannounced military operation against Baloch rebels in the province. Initially, the Afghan Taliban forced the Baloch rebels to close their camps in Afghanistan after the August 2021 takeover of Kabul by the Taliban. However, recently, the Baloch rebels have reopened their training camps on Afghan soil close to Pak-Afghan border from where they launch attacks on Pakistani security forces. The Baloch rebels are now using American weapons in their attacks which indicate that there has been some kind of cooperation between Taliban and Baloch rebels against Pakistani security forces. On July 7, 2023, The Balochistan Post revealed that in the first half of 2023, the Army conducted 149 raids, 113 blockades, and 99 military operations in 42 different areas within Balochistan, including Kech (40), Bolan (36,) Panjgur (33), Kharan (30), Kalat (20), Quetta (17), Nushki and Mastung (11 each). “In retaliation to the recent as well as earlier operations, Baloch insurgent groups have targeted Army personnel, as well as non-locals, whom they thought to be Army collaborators. Some of the significant attacks on non-locals in the current year included.”
Pakistani security forces have been engaged in massive combing operations in the urban centers of Pakistan to arrest the illegal Afghan nationals residing in cities and towns of the country, and to arrest TTP operatives and other members of militant groups who are hiding in urban centers as sleeper cells.
The Baloch separatists are doing their best to give a color of ethnic conflict to ongoing turmoil in Balochistan. According to data published by South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP)—an independent private organization-- a total of 254 ‘non-locals’ have been killed in Balochistan since August 26, 2006, (data till October 15, 2023). Of these, 198 were Punjabis. Other non-native also fell to the ethnic collateral damage, including 37 Sindhis.
Pakistani security forces have been engaged in massive combing operations in the urban centers of Pakistan to arrest the illegal Afghan nationals residing in cities and towns of the country, and to arrest TTP operatives and other members of militant groups who are hiding in urban centers as sleeper cells. Officials said that Afghan national have been involved in 16 suicide bombings during the past one year. Secondly, Pakistani militant groups sleeper cells are responsible for carrying out the rest of the suicide bombings in Pakistan’s cities.
An Islamabad based think-tank has reported that Pakistan experienced a 34% increase in anti-state violence during the month of November. Data unveiled by the Islamabad-based think tank Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) reveals a total of 63 militant attacks were carried out during the month, resulting in 83 fatalities, including that of 37 security forces personnel and 33 civilians. Additionally, 89 individuals sustained injuries, comprising 53 civilians and 36 security forces personnel. Pakistani security forces responded with precision, eliminating at least 59 militants, while 18 suspected militants were apprehended.
The Pakistani security establishment has hardly succeeded in formulating a coherent strategy to deal with these twin insurgencies. A faction within the security establishment is not ready to part company with their “strategic assets”—the Afghan Taliban.
According to the PICSS database, the cumulative toll for the first eleven months of 2023 reflects 599 militant attacks, resulting in 897 fatalities and 1,241 injuries. This signifies an 81% escalation in militant attacks, an 86% surge in resultant deaths, and a 64% rise in the number of injured compared to the corresponding period in 2022. Once again, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) emerged as the most affected province, with 51 attacks, causing 54 fatalities and 81 injuries. Despite disrupting the civic life in different parts of the country the terror groups, however, failed to make a decisive military impact on the situation.
“In military terms, the activities of militant groups are nothing more than a prick for the state and military of Pakistan,” said Brig (retd.) Saad Muhammad, a defense analyst. Pakistani society, however, is gearing up for parliamentary elections in February and many security analysts fear that upcoming elections could be deadly from a security perspective.
The Pakistani security establishment has hardly succeeded in formulating a coherent strategy to deal with these twin insurgencies. A faction within the security establishment is not ready to part company with their “strategic assets”—the Afghan Taliban. The Pakistani security establishment so far has been treating the Taliban with kid gloves. For instance, Pakistan recently asked Taliban government in Kabul to hand over notorious Pakistani Taliban commander, Haji Gul Bahadur to the government of Pakistan after the Pakistan military accused the militant commander of masterminding a suicide attack on a military convoy in Pak-Afghan border areas.
Afghanistan’s Head of Diplomatic Mission in Islamabad was summoned to the Foreign Office and was handed over a written demand to extradite Haji Gul Bahadur immediately. Haji Gul Bahadur has been hiding in Afghanistan’s border towns since 2017, and is the head of his own faction of the Pakistani Taliban who fled to Afghanistan after the Pakistani military started a military operation against militants in North Waziristan in 2017. Two civilians lost their lives while 10 others, including three security forces personnel, were injured in a suicide attack in Bannu’s Bakka Khel area, the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) said. The military's media wing added that a motorcycle-borne suicide bomber, affiliated with Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group and later identified as an Afghan national, targeted a security forces convoy.
Pakistan doesn’t recognize the Taliban's Kabul government and therefore the Taliban doesn’t have an ambassador in Islamabad. However, the Taliban is maintaining a diplomatic presence in Pakistan’s capital city. There a representative from the embassy was summoned to the foreign office and was handed over the extradition demand. Haji Gul Bahadur had a base in North Waziristan where he used to host Arab-Afghans as well as Chinese separatist groups. His group was at odds with the main body of Pakistani Taliban due to tribal conflicts.
Another diplomatic initiative under consideration at the highest level in Islamabad has been put on the table by the Afghan Taliban themselves. The Afghan Taliban recently offered the Pakistani government that they would be ready to neutralize TTP fighters hiding in Afghanistan in return for a full diplomatic recognition of the Taliban regime by the Pakistani government. This offer was made by Afghan Taliban leaders in the formal and informal talks between them and Pakistani diplomats in Kabul during the past few weeks.
Officials said that Pakistan’s special envoy, Asif Durrani and Taliban foreign minister had several sessions of talks during the past six months. “We have not closed the doors for further talks” said an official, “Depending on the situation, our special envoy might visit Kabul in the coming weeks.” Pakistan is likely to examine the Taliban’s offer in a high-level meeting to be presided over by caretaker Prime Minister.
The Foreign Minister and Chief of the Army Staff will also participate in the high-level meeting. So far Pakistan has not responded to the offer. However, senior officials said that the Taliban offer is being considered at the highest level of Pakistani government. “In ongoing discussions between representatives from Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban, it has been conveyed that the Taliban is prepared to either neutralize all Pakistani militant groups operating within Afghanistan or facilitate their extradition to Pakistan,” said a senior official.
Pakistan maintains a full diplomatic presence in Kabul and similarly, the Taliban also runs a diplomatic mission in Islamabad. Different levels of Pakistani government also extend technical support to the Afghan Taliban regime in running the affairs of the government. However, Pakistan has refused to extend full diplomatic recognition to the Taliban regime after it took the position that the Taliban government would have to reform itself before full diplomatic recognition could be offered.
Pakistan, however, has been extremely reluctant to offer diplomatic recognition to Taliban singlehandedly without the other countries of the world remaining aloof from Taliban regime.
Experts, however, point out that Pakistani diplomats have been lobbying for the Taliban regime in multilateral forums. “Pakistani diplomats have been trying to convince leading countries including China, Russia, Iran and the United States that they should extend recognition to the Taliban regime as it would facilitate the process of transforming the Taliban into a regular type of government,” said an expert.
Pakistan, however, has been extremely reluctant to offer diplomatic recognition to Taliban singlehandedly without the other countries of the world remaining aloof from Taliban regime. In 1996 when the Taliban took over Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif—the two major cities of Afghanistan—Pakistan along with Saudi Arabia and UAE extended diplomatic recognition to the Taliban regime. This time, none of the Muslim countries showed any interest in offering recognition to the Taliban. Although, countries like Russia, Iran, China are maintaining diplomatic missions in Kabul.
The reluctance of regional countries to extend recognition stems from their uneasiness with domestic policies of the Taliban regime. Their treatment of women is specially a cause of concern. The Taliban’s failure to contain violence within the borders of Afghanistan is another cause of concern for the regional countries. A China Foreign Ministry official recently said that Afghanistan's Taliban government will need to introduce political reforms, improve security and mend relations with its neighbours before receiving full diplomatic recognition. "China has always believed that Afghanistan should not be excluded from the international community," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said when asked if China would now recognise the Taliban government.
"We hope that Afghanistan will further respond to the expectations of the international community, build an open and inclusive political structure (and) implement moderate and stable domestic and foreign policies," he said. Mr. Wang also said China urged Kabul to "resolutely combat all types of terrorist forces, live in harmony with all countries around the world, especially neighbouring countries, and integrate with the international community at an early date." "As the concerns of all parties receive stronger responses, diplomatic recognition of the Afghan government will naturally follow," he said. Extending diplomatic recognition will hardly solve Pakistan’s terrorism problems.