Unless circumstances take a sharp turn, around 30 days from today, on the 12th of August 2023, Pakistan's national assembly will stand dissolved after completing its constitutionally mandated five years term.
The elected government will depart and will be succeeded by a caretaker setup. The Election Commission of Pakistan will then decide what will be the date for holding general elections and, with it, signal the commencement of electoral canvassing by political parties.
Since April 2022, Punjab has dominated the political environment of the country. Not because it does not have a majority of national assembly seats but because it also holds the key to the throne in Islamabad.
While attention will be fixated on who wins Punjab, the upcoming elections in Sindh will not be any less significant.
This is the province where the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) enjoys significant support; support it would argue has remained consistent and intact over the years given that the party has formed a government there after every election over the past 15 years.
Some media reports suggest that former president and PPP Co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari desires to see his son -- PPP Chairperson Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari rise as the next prime minister of Pakistan -- a destiny once fulfilled by his late mother, slain prime minister Benazir Bhutto.
But the road to the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) in Islamabad for Bilawal passes through Sindh.
The PPP aims to win 45-50 seats out of the 61 up for grabs across the southeastern province.
Of these seats, 21 seats are located in the megalopolis of Karachi. The remaining 40 are scattered across the province.
PPP and comfort of Sindh
During the 2018 elections, the PPP -- like the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in Punjab and the Awami National Party (ANP) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa -- were faced with the challenge of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf's (PTI) rising sun.
Despite that, the PPP demonstrated that apart from Karachi, Sindh was firmly in its grip. Out of the 40 seats available across Sindh, the PPP won 33 seats -- a clear vote of confidence.
It lost one seat each in Jacobabad (NA-196), Shikarpur (NA-199), Ghotki (NA-205), Mirpur Khas (NA-218) and Badin (NA-230). It lost another two in the urban centre of Hyderabad, where the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM) retains a strong base.
Besides these five seats, which it lost, the PPP may feel there are around ten other seats where it is vulnerable going into the upcoming elections.
These seats include one each in Shikaprur (NA-198), Ghotki (NA-204), Naushehro Feroz (NA-212), Badin (NA-229), Tharparkar (NA-221), Sukkur (NA-207) and two each in Sanghar (NA-215 and NA-216) and Dadu (NA-234, NA-235).
So far, the PPP has made some adjustments to regain NA-196 Jacobabad and retain NA-204 Ghotki.
It has done so by persuading MPAs Aslam Abro and Shahryar Mahar to join its ranks from these districts.
Moreover, the PPP has re-established its contacts with Syed Ali Nawaz Shah, a sitting MNA from Mirpur Khas. The PPP was encouraged to woo Shah after he voted against Imran Khan and supported the ruling coalition during last year's vote of no-confidence that ultimately sent the PTI government packing.
But more than that, the PPP and Zardari have relied on their historical relationship with Shah, who remained associated with the party before the 2018 general elections.
Rivalry continues
It is, however, a different matter altogether once the PPP heads to Shikarpur, Naushehro Feroz, Ghotki, Dadu, Badin, Tharparkar, Sanghar and Sukkur where it has traditionally faced opposition.
The key sources of opposition to the PPP include the Ibrahim Jatoi and Ghaus Bux Mahar families in Shikarpur, the Mahar family in Ghotki, the Jatoi family of New Jatoi and their local allies in Naushehro Feroz, Jatoi family and their local allies in Dadu, the Mirza family (Of Zulfiqar Mirza and Fehmida Mirza fame) in Badin, the Arbab (former Sindh chief minister Arbab Ghulam Rahim) family and their allies in Tharparkar, Pir Pagara in Sanghar and alliance of various groups in Sukkur.
These will all prove challenging, even for a master political strategist such as Zardari and his party.
In these circumstances, the PPP has but two choices.
The first would provide the party with the short-term gains it so desires. The other would be useful in providing it long-term benefits.
If PPP leaders opt for short-term gains, they would be well advised to admit all their rivals into their ranks and provide them with the opportunity to return to the power corridors and make fresh gains by establishing contacts with the establishment and their electorate.
Another choice is for the PPP to accept the challenge and let the public decide in an open contest.
Such an option would mean that the PPP can either defeat its rivals or suffer the damage caused by the loss, including weaker stakes when it comes to power sharing in the centre.
The real trump card, however, can prove to be the various districts that today form the urban centre of Karachi.
The PPP can take heart from the support it has managed to secure in the recent local government and mayoral elections in the megalopolis, which used to be a stronghold for the MQM-P at one point in time.
It remains to be seen what kind of cards does Zardari play. Will he again sweep Sindh, using it as his power core the same way he did between 2008-2012, or does he shift tactics in the aftermath of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf's implosion.
The elected government will depart and will be succeeded by a caretaker setup. The Election Commission of Pakistan will then decide what will be the date for holding general elections and, with it, signal the commencement of electoral canvassing by political parties.
Since April 2022, Punjab has dominated the political environment of the country. Not because it does not have a majority of national assembly seats but because it also holds the key to the throne in Islamabad.
While attention will be fixated on who wins Punjab, the upcoming elections in Sindh will not be any less significant.
The road to the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) in Islamabad for Bilawal passes through Sindh
This is the province where the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) enjoys significant support; support it would argue has remained consistent and intact over the years given that the party has formed a government there after every election over the past 15 years.
Some media reports suggest that former president and PPP Co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari desires to see his son -- PPP Chairperson Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari rise as the next prime minister of Pakistan -- a destiny once fulfilled by his late mother, slain prime minister Benazir Bhutto.
But the road to the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) in Islamabad for Bilawal passes through Sindh.
The PPP aims to win 45-50 seats out of the 61 up for grabs across the southeastern province.
Of these seats, 21 seats are located in the megalopolis of Karachi. The remaining 40 are scattered across the province.
PPP and comfort of Sindh
During the 2018 elections, the PPP -- like the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in Punjab and the Awami National Party (ANP) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa -- were faced with the challenge of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf's (PTI) rising sun.
Despite that, the PPP demonstrated that apart from Karachi, Sindh was firmly in its grip. Out of the 40 seats available across Sindh, the PPP won 33 seats -- a clear vote of confidence.
PPP may feel there are around ten other seats where it is vulnerable going into the upcoming elections
It lost one seat each in Jacobabad (NA-196), Shikarpur (NA-199), Ghotki (NA-205), Mirpur Khas (NA-218) and Badin (NA-230). It lost another two in the urban centre of Hyderabad, where the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM) retains a strong base.
Besides these five seats, which it lost, the PPP may feel there are around ten other seats where it is vulnerable going into the upcoming elections.
These seats include one each in Shikaprur (NA-198), Ghotki (NA-204), Naushehro Feroz (NA-212), Badin (NA-229), Tharparkar (NA-221), Sukkur (NA-207) and two each in Sanghar (NA-215 and NA-216) and Dadu (NA-234, NA-235).
So far, the PPP has made some adjustments to regain NA-196 Jacobabad and retain NA-204 Ghotki.
It has done so by persuading MPAs Aslam Abro and Shahryar Mahar to join its ranks from these districts.
Moreover, the PPP has re-established its contacts with Syed Ali Nawaz Shah, a sitting MNA from Mirpur Khas. The PPP was encouraged to woo Shah after he voted against Imran Khan and supported the ruling coalition during last year's vote of no-confidence that ultimately sent the PTI government packing.
But more than that, the PPP and Zardari have relied on their historical relationship with Shah, who remained associated with the party before the 2018 general elections.
Rivalry continues
It is, however, a different matter altogether once the PPP heads to Shikarpur, Naushehro Feroz, Ghotki, Dadu, Badin, Tharparkar, Sanghar and Sukkur where it has traditionally faced opposition.
The first would provide the party with the short-term gains it so desires. The other would be useful in providing it long-term benefits
The key sources of opposition to the PPP include the Ibrahim Jatoi and Ghaus Bux Mahar families in Shikarpur, the Mahar family in Ghotki, the Jatoi family of New Jatoi and their local allies in Naushehro Feroz, Jatoi family and their local allies in Dadu, the Mirza family (Of Zulfiqar Mirza and Fehmida Mirza fame) in Badin, the Arbab (former Sindh chief minister Arbab Ghulam Rahim) family and their allies in Tharparkar, Pir Pagara in Sanghar and alliance of various groups in Sukkur.
These will all prove challenging, even for a master political strategist such as Zardari and his party.
In these circumstances, the PPP has but two choices.
The first would provide the party with the short-term gains it so desires. The other would be useful in providing it long-term benefits.
If PPP leaders opt for short-term gains, they would be well advised to admit all their rivals into their ranks and provide them with the opportunity to return to the power corridors and make fresh gains by establishing contacts with the establishment and their electorate.
Another choice is for the PPP to accept the challenge and let the public decide in an open contest.
Such an option would mean that the PPP can either defeat its rivals or suffer the damage caused by the loss, including weaker stakes when it comes to power sharing in the centre.
The real trump card, however, can prove to be the various districts that today form the urban centre of Karachi.
The PPP can take heart from the support it has managed to secure in the recent local government and mayoral elections in the megalopolis, which used to be a stronghold for the MQM-P at one point in time.
It remains to be seen what kind of cards does Zardari play. Will he again sweep Sindh, using it as his power core the same way he did between 2008-2012, or does he shift tactics in the aftermath of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf's implosion.