On the 15th of August, we commemorated the third anniversary of the Taliban's military takeover of Kabul. For millions of Afghans and non-Afghans who had strived for a progressive, peaceful, and prosperous Afghanistan, it was a day of profound sorrow, betrayal, fear and abandonment. This date stands as a dark chapter in our contemporary history, indelibly etched into global memory by the haunting images of individuals clinging to departing US military aircraft at Kabul Airport.
Some short-sighted and populist constituencies in the region, particularly in the PTI-led Pakistan, celebrated 15th August 2021 as a day of victory. They viewed it as a significant triumph in which their ally, the extremist Taliban group, in the words of former prime minister Imran Khan, had supposedly freed themselves from "the "shackles of slavery," dealt a blow to America and NATO, and secured a strategic advantage over India – Pakistan's longstanding rival in Afghanistan.
The euphoria surrounding the Taliban's victory quickly disappeared. However, the scars of betrayal and the suffering caused by the collapse of the state in Afghanistan are lasting, and their full consequences are yet to unfold.
Despite being proscribed in the US-Taliban Doha agreement and the UN Security Council resolution 2513, the Taliban resurrected their defunct Emirate. An exclusively male and essentially Pashtun mullah government brokered with the help of General Faiz Hameed has, to date, failed to gain domestic and international legitimacy.
The recent UN independent assessment, which forms the basis of a renewed Doha-based diplomatic initiative, has emphasised the urgent need to move away from the existing status quo
The irresponsible withdrawal, a precipitous collapse of a relatively moderate and inclusive Islamic Republic, and consequently, the absolute empowerment of the Taliban and its regional and international extremist brethren created a chaotic situation. As international forces and diplomats departed, neighbouring countries were left to pick up the pieces.
The task of dealing with the resulting crisis was immense, but it also presented a distinct opportunity to create a lasting regional resolution to Afghanistan's long-standing conflict. Regrettably, the regional nations did not grasp the chance to unite and propose a joint solution. Instead, each country pursued its individual channels with the Taliban to safeguard its immediate interests.
Pakistan’s role and responsibility
Given its significant role and extensive involvement in Afghanistan's affairs over the past four decades, Pakistan bears a considerable share of responsibility. While major regional powers such as China, Iran, and Russia established pragmatic ties with the Taliban to counter their common adversary—the USA, no country provided more support in establishing, nurturing, and safeguarding the Taliban than Pakistan.
Ironically, apart from Afghanistan itself, no other country has suffered and borne a higher burden of direct and indirect costs arising from its involvement with the Taliban than Pakistan. The suffering has not only diminished after the Taliban's takeover but has seen a sharp rise.
The question remains as to why Pakistan has not been able to shift its disastrous policy despite its deep ties as the Taliban's host country and enduring enormous human, economic, reputational, and political costs.
Broken promises
Throughout my two decades of diplomatic service in Afghanistan, including a four-year tenure as Deputy Foreign Minister from 2015 to 2019, I engaged in numerous frank and in-depth discussions with Pakistani counterparts and other senior officials. Post-2010, the majority of senior officials I met admitted that the strategies of 'strategic depth' and support for 'extremist Pashtun' groups in Afghanistan were unsuccessful and had been abandoned. They underscored that Pakistan itself had suffered from authoritarianism and extremism and expressed a willingness to collaborate with a broader range of democratic and civil society forces in Afghanistan. However, in practice, little had changed.
In August 2017, during a meeting with Foreign Secretary Tahmina Janjua in Islamabad, I confronted her about the promised shift in Pakistan's Afghanistan policy. She assured me that it was a work in progress and compared it to a large ship that needed time and space to change direction. Now, seven years later, with the Taliban and its terrorist comrades back in power, it's clear that the ship hasn't just changed direction, but it appears to have completely lost its compass.
Afghanistan under the Taliban has moved from bad to worse, falling further down in all global social, economic, political, and human security indicators. The country is experiencing significant economic contraction and unprecedented poverty levels. According to a World Bank report, as of early 2024, over half of Afghanistan’s population is living in poverty. More alarming is the recent wave of mass migration of Afghans. The IOM data shows that since the Taliban takeover, approximately 8 million Afghan citizens have left the country, with 85 percent moving to neighbouring countries and almost one million heading toward Europe.
Despite the much-publicised claims about the improvement of Taliban 2.0, the group continues to impose draconian and backward laws, including the recent morality law. It has banned the UN special rapporteur from entering Afghanistan. The Taliban's actions and policies are driving the country into a downward spiral in all socioeconomic, human rights, and fundamental freedoms aspects. By systematically removing women and girls from public life, the Taliban administration is on the verge of being labelled as a gender apartheid regime by the UN human rights system.
The Taliban's offer of counterterrorism as its primary appeal to the world lacks credibility due to the group's support and protection of well-known violent extremist groups. The Taliban provides a conducive environment for regional and international terror groups such as the TTP, al-Qaeda, Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), ETIM, IMU, and others, as highlighted in the United Nations (U.N.) sanctions monitors report. The increasing frequency of terrorist attacks in the region, particularly in Pakistan, alongside the rise in irregular migration to Europe and the infiltration of extremist elements and Taliban sympathisers among newly arrived migrants, are among the significant security threats stemming from a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.
Time for an internationally backed regional solution
After three years, the consolidation of a fanatical and intransigent Taliban Emirate is turning into a nightmare for the neighbouring countries, Pakistan in particular, and for an absolute majority of Afghans. If there was an illusion in some parts of Pakistan’s establishment that a Taliban government in Kabul secures its best interest in Afghanistan, it should be dispelled by now.
Fortunately, there is a growing consensus among regional and international stakeholders that the current situation in Afghanistan is unsustainable. The recent UN independent assessment, which forms the basis of a renewed Doha-based diplomatic initiative, has emphasised the urgent need to move away from the existing status quo. The ultimate objective outlined in Security Council Resolution 2721 is to have "a peaceful Afghanistan that is fully reintegrated into the international community and meets its international obligations."
Afghanistan is no longer a top global priority for the US. However, there is still a shared commitment to not recognising the Taliban, restoring fundamental human rights, and establishing an inclusive political system. If neighbouring countries can work together, there is a greater opportunity than ever to achieve a sustainable, internationally supported regional solution.
With the US's diminished focus on Afghanistan, it's crucial for the surrounding region to work towards a sustainable and peaceful resolution. Pakistan, in particular, has the potential to play a pivotal role in this effort if it takes a constructive and more proactive stance in supporting the restoration of an inclusive and democratic system in Afghanistan.