Relations between India and Pakistan have hit a new low as hostilities intensify across the international border and the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir. At least seven people, including civilians, have been killed in the renewed shelling and firing from either side. Amid an uneasy calm, New Delhi and Islamabad have been blaming each other for the provocation. Threats have become part of the new discourse that is now shaping.
An “apparently empowered” Defence Minister of Pakistan Khwaja Asif spoke of talking in a “language India can understand”, and on January 4, he even tried to put India on the defensive by saying “India wants to keep us busy in a low-intensity war or low-intensity engagement on our eastern border. They are pursuing the same tactics of keeping our forces busy on all fronts.” Earlier, the Adviser on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz had protested to Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj by saying that the Border Security Force had called the Rangers for a flag meeting but opened fire on them. Swaraj refuted the allegations saying “Pakistani commanders responded to our defensive fire by using higher caliber weapons, expanding the conflict zone, and targeting civilian habitations”. She also warned of consequences in case the established mechanisms are not followed.
This war of words not only brings to the fore the deep mistrust both sides have developed but also the fact that the situation could take an unexpected turn. Even an incident of a fishing boat casting off into Arabian Sea near Keti Bunder, 100 kilometers from Karachi, became an issue of “Pakistan exporting explosives to India”. The incident, however, was caught in controversy within India. Two influential dailies, Indian Express and DNA, raised questions over the claims that it was meant to carry explosives to India. Leading security expert Ajai Shukla dissected the press release from the Ministry of Defence and the input from intelligence sources. “Questions also abound over the MoD’s contention that there was an explosion on board. In a fuel fire, any high explosive on board the vessel would simply have caught fire and burnt, not exploded,” he wrote in Business Standard. India’s immediate suspicion that it was a ‘terror boat’ reveals the level of mistrust that exists on both sides.
With Prime Minister Narendra Modi not making a statement on this fresh spate of violence across the border and no investigation launched to see what exactly happened, the space for reconciliation is shrinking. It is not known what is happening on the Pakistani side, but on the Indian side it is becoming clear that as of now, reconciliation with Pakistan is a closed chapter.
It all started in July last year when New Delhi took a major, rather surprising step to unilaterally call off foreign secretary level talks after the Pakistani High Commissioner met Kashmiri separatists in Delhi. At that time, it was seen as a fulfillment of Modi’s electoral promise of being tough in dealing with Pakistan with regard to terror. “Terror and talks cannot go hand in hand,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi had repeatedly said during the election campaign. But he had himself given a pleasant surprise when he invited all the heads of the SAARC countries, including Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to his swearing in ceremony. Diplomatic circles were taken aback. It was not something they had expected from Modi. Insiders say New Delhi was keen to see Nawaz Sharif being part of the ceremony, and covered it under a larger outreach to all SAARC nations.
Perhaps Modi has not been able to rein in the hawks within the establishment who are drawing inspiration from the RSS agenda to adopt a tough posture vis a vis Pakistan. Islamabad has not given a fair deal to India, they say, as far as the trial of the Mumbai suspects is concerned. The latest drama over Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi is one example. But New Delhi too is not clear about its policy. It seems that the hardliners in BJP and RSS have so far succeeded in implementing their hawkish agenda. This was the case during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s tenure as well, but he sidestepped the hawks and walked many extra miles. He crafted a mechanism of separating party interests from diplomacy. He showed how political leadership could assert itself. That is why he stands alone among the prime ministers of India.
For Modi, there was an opportunity to use his mandate and power to do something different. But so far, he has shown no signs of departing from the traditional mindset that runs the establishment. While being the leader of the largest democracy in the world and the biggest power in South Asia, he could have easily moved forward on his intent to carry along other South Asian countries. Moreover, the electoral achievement he had made in the recent assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir (but not in the valley) could be used to open doors for reconciliation with Pakistan. After his stern message to his troops in November asking them to “fire at will” in retaliation to Pakistani firing, he has not made any major intervention in this phase of hostility. Maybe he is not happy with what is happening, but he needs to come out of the situation and give a new hope to the people using his power and influence.
With tensions escalating, the people who live along the border will have to bear the brunt of this renewed hostility. What all stakeholders fail to realize is that the ceasefire announced in 2003 and followed up with more confidence building measures on both sides of the LoC had yielded dividends for the general public. This bonhomie from 2003 to 2008 might have upset the hawks and vested interests on both sides, but it had done wonders with the re-engagement of people across the Line of Control. Their lives had dramatically changed and they could live in peace after more than a decade.
The writer is a veteran journalist and political commentator based in Srinagar
An “apparently empowered” Defence Minister of Pakistan Khwaja Asif spoke of talking in a “language India can understand”, and on January 4, he even tried to put India on the defensive by saying “India wants to keep us busy in a low-intensity war or low-intensity engagement on our eastern border. They are pursuing the same tactics of keeping our forces busy on all fronts.” Earlier, the Adviser on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz had protested to Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj by saying that the Border Security Force had called the Rangers for a flag meeting but opened fire on them. Swaraj refuted the allegations saying “Pakistani commanders responded to our defensive fire by using higher caliber weapons, expanding the conflict zone, and targeting civilian habitations”. She also warned of consequences in case the established mechanisms are not followed.
This war of words not only brings to the fore the deep mistrust both sides have developed but also the fact that the situation could take an unexpected turn. Even an incident of a fishing boat casting off into Arabian Sea near Keti Bunder, 100 kilometers from Karachi, became an issue of “Pakistan exporting explosives to India”. The incident, however, was caught in controversy within India. Two influential dailies, Indian Express and DNA, raised questions over the claims that it was meant to carry explosives to India. Leading security expert Ajai Shukla dissected the press release from the Ministry of Defence and the input from intelligence sources. “Questions also abound over the MoD’s contention that there was an explosion on board. In a fuel fire, any high explosive on board the vessel would simply have caught fire and burnt, not exploded,” he wrote in Business Standard. India’s immediate suspicion that it was a ‘terror boat’ reveals the level of mistrust that exists on both sides.
As of now, reconciliation with Pakistan is a closed chapter
With Prime Minister Narendra Modi not making a statement on this fresh spate of violence across the border and no investigation launched to see what exactly happened, the space for reconciliation is shrinking. It is not known what is happening on the Pakistani side, but on the Indian side it is becoming clear that as of now, reconciliation with Pakistan is a closed chapter.
It all started in July last year when New Delhi took a major, rather surprising step to unilaterally call off foreign secretary level talks after the Pakistani High Commissioner met Kashmiri separatists in Delhi. At that time, it was seen as a fulfillment of Modi’s electoral promise of being tough in dealing with Pakistan with regard to terror. “Terror and talks cannot go hand in hand,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi had repeatedly said during the election campaign. But he had himself given a pleasant surprise when he invited all the heads of the SAARC countries, including Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to his swearing in ceremony. Diplomatic circles were taken aback. It was not something they had expected from Modi. Insiders say New Delhi was keen to see Nawaz Sharif being part of the ceremony, and covered it under a larger outreach to all SAARC nations.
Perhaps Modi has not been able to rein in the hawks within the establishment who are drawing inspiration from the RSS agenda to adopt a tough posture vis a vis Pakistan. Islamabad has not given a fair deal to India, they say, as far as the trial of the Mumbai suspects is concerned. The latest drama over Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi is one example. But New Delhi too is not clear about its policy. It seems that the hardliners in BJP and RSS have so far succeeded in implementing their hawkish agenda. This was the case during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s tenure as well, but he sidestepped the hawks and walked many extra miles. He crafted a mechanism of separating party interests from diplomacy. He showed how political leadership could assert itself. That is why he stands alone among the prime ministers of India.
For Modi, there was an opportunity to use his mandate and power to do something different. But so far, he has shown no signs of departing from the traditional mindset that runs the establishment. While being the leader of the largest democracy in the world and the biggest power in South Asia, he could have easily moved forward on his intent to carry along other South Asian countries. Moreover, the electoral achievement he had made in the recent assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir (but not in the valley) could be used to open doors for reconciliation with Pakistan. After his stern message to his troops in November asking them to “fire at will” in retaliation to Pakistani firing, he has not made any major intervention in this phase of hostility. Maybe he is not happy with what is happening, but he needs to come out of the situation and give a new hope to the people using his power and influence.
With tensions escalating, the people who live along the border will have to bear the brunt of this renewed hostility. What all stakeholders fail to realize is that the ceasefire announced in 2003 and followed up with more confidence building measures on both sides of the LoC had yielded dividends for the general public. This bonhomie from 2003 to 2008 might have upset the hawks and vested interests on both sides, but it had done wonders with the re-engagement of people across the Line of Control. Their lives had dramatically changed and they could live in peace after more than a decade.
The writer is a veteran journalist and political commentator based in Srinagar