Between Kabul and Islamabad

A terrorist attack in the Afghan capital has raised new concerns about peace in Afghanistan

Between Kabul and Islamabad
Nine civilians, including four foreigners and two children, were shot dead by four Taliban militants in the heavily fortified Serena hotel in Kabul on March 20. The attackers crossed several layers of security with guns hidden in their socks.

Earlier, the Taliban had vowed a campaign of violence ahead of the April 5 elections in Afghanistan. A Taliban spokesman accepted responsibility for the attack, saying it was aimed at the upcoming presidential elections. “Suicide bombers have entered Serena Hotel and a heavy battle is underway. Our enemies have suffered heavy casualties,” Zabihullah Mujahid told reporters. “We carried out the attack after receiving information that a high-level Afghan and foreign political delegation was present in the hotel.” Afghan politicians and security officials were quick to blame Pakistan.

“Witness testimony and preliminary information analyses show that this terrorist attack was directly executed or carried out by foreign intelligence services,” the Afghan National Security Council said in a statement after a meeting chaired by President Hamid Karzai. “Another information of the NDS (National Directorate of Security) shows that earlier when one Pakistani diplomat entered the Kabul Serena hotel to use its sport club, he filmed the corridors of the hotel which the hotel staff raised objections to,” it added.

A Pakistani security official denied the accusation from Kabul. “On the contrary, we know how Afghanistan is being used to destabilize Pakistan – be it Latif Mehsud incident to India’s role in Afghanistan. Pakistan supports a peaceful settlement of the Afghan issue.”

“The peace deal in Pakistan is allowing Pakistani and Afghan Taliban to concentrate more on Afghanistan, especially when presidential elections are so close,” said Afghan interior ministry spokesman Sediq Sediqi. “This raises doubts of institutional support to disrupt our elections and democracy. They could well be from the Haqqani network.”

Elections in Kabul

Afghan President Hamid Karzai is barred from taking part in the presidential elections for a third time. The Karzai family is backing Zalmai Rassoul, a former foreign minister. Foreign election observers have been leaving Afghanistan since the attack. “We have pulled back our people staying in Serena Hotel and are assessing the security conditions,” said Kathy Gest of NDI. Luis Maria Duarte, an election observer of NDI, was amongst those killed in the attack.

The OSCE said it had yet to make a final decision on whether it would cancel its international election support mission, but sources said its foreign staff had already left for Turkey. “Our security experts are currently assessing the security situation in Kabul for our team, who were at the Serena the night of the attack,” their spokesman Thomas Rymer said.

But an EU mission of observers decided to stay. “We are not going anywhere. We will remain in Afghanistan with increased security.”

In another incident, two workers of Abdullah Abdullah – another strong presidential candidate and the only one in Afghanistan to endorse Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) – were shot dead. Abdullah Abdullah was cautious, but blamed the Karzai government for the security failure.

“It will be very difficult to hold elections in such a situation,” an Afghan Election Commission official said. “However, we are determined to hold elections despite all the concerns.”

Talking peace in Islamabad

Pakistan condemned the attack but vehemently denied Kabul’s allegations. “Our deepest sympathies and condolences go to the families of the victims. We also pray for the speediest recovery of the injured,” the foreign office said in a statement. “Pakistan reiterates its condemnation of terrorism, in all its forms and manifestations.”

“We condemn the attacks on Kabul’s hotel and we reject the absurd allegation that peace with TTP would increase violence in Afghanistan,” said Maulana Samiul Haq, Pakistan’s key negotiator with the TTP and the leader of the madrassa that most of the Afghan Taliban leadership attended. “On the contrary, peace with TTP in Pakistan will bring peace in Afghanistan.”

[quote]The attackers crossed several layers of security with guns hidden in their socks[/quote]

Pakistan and the US have been working hard to bring Afghan Taliban to the negotiations table, and there were several high level meetings in a safehouse in Islamabad earlier this year, in which Mullah Omar’s envoy Mullah Gul Agha, Taliban’s Kandahar chief Mullah Hasan Rehmani, Rauf Khadim and other Quetta Shura members discussed political reconciliation with the Afghan government. These talks were carried out with the Afghan government’s consent.

Meanwhile, more than 22 members of Afghan Taliban have been killed in Quetta in 2014 alone. “All these men had one thing in common,” said a security official asking not to be named. “They were talking, at some level, to the Afghan Peace Council.”

Pakistani security officials admit that internal rivalries in the Afghan Taliban are a headache for Pakistan and the US, who are now on the same page for resolving the Afghanistan crisis.

But former US counterterrorism official Carl Adams believes “Al Qaeda and the Haqqanis have a stake to destabilize things back in Kabul, Islamabad and Delhi, so that there is chaos. It suits Al Qaeda.”