Prime Minister Imran Khan’s grant of a three-year tenure extension to General Qamar Javed Bajwa, COAS, hasn’t come as a surprise. Miltablishment-favoured journalists have been “breaking” this news for months. Indeed, each is now tripping over himself to claim he was the first to predict the earth shattering news. Nor is it surprising that Mr Khan has done yet another U-Turn, having earlier criticized the PPP government of Yousaf Raza Gilani for granting COAS General Ashfaq Kayani a three year extension and praising COAS Raheel Sharif for announcing well in time that he wasn’t interested in an extension from Nawaz Sharif. This is Imran Khan’s nth U-Turn, and we are still counting. If we continue to think Mr Khan means what he says or says what he means, we have another thought coming. He has made a fine art of deception that would do any politician proud.
What is surprising, though, is the form and timing of the announcement. There are still three months to go before Gen Bajwa’s first term ends. One can only speculate that the hurry may have been prompted by the need to divert attention from a chorus of angry voices criticizing the ruling junta’s mishandling of the Kashmir crisis, especially after crowing about President Donald Trump’s offer to mediate the conflict between India and Pakistan and likening Imran Khan’s trip to the US as a second World Cup victory!
Evidence of a hurried decision comes from three pointers. The first is the brief notification signed by the Prime Minister. It bypasses the President of Pakistan upon whose authority, on the written advice of the Prime Minister, such an appointment or extension is constitutionally made. No such advice was given before this notification was signed on 19 August. Second, it follows on the heels of the hurried arrest of Mariam Nawaz Sharif who was outspoken in her critique of the junta’s Kashmir policy and was expected to denounce the extension decision as well if she had been free. Third, the reason given for the extension – continuity of national security command in view of the regional situation – is thin on the ground. Inspired talk of the extension was leaked months ago when there was no India-provoked crisis in the region. It is also a poor reflection of the military’s institutional decision and command structure that it should admit dependency on one particular person at its apex.
The stunted response of the mainstream opposition parties isn’t surprising either. Apart from the usual suspects – like Farhatullah Babar of the PPP and a spokesman of the ANP who have taken principled stands – Mr Asif Ali Zardari, Bilawal Bhutto and Shahbaz Sharif are conspicuous by their silence. It is as if their silence was “coaxed” before announcing the decision so that no controversy would taint it. Under the circumstances, if the government, opposition and military are all “on the same page”, why should the media risk life or limb by not pretending that all is proper and well in the “national interest”?
PTI stalwarts have heaved a sigh of relief that General Bajwa will be sticking around for another three years to make sure that Imran Khan will complete his five years in office (if not in power). Indeed, some are going so far as to predict that Mr Khan will get another five years after that because the General-in-Waiting (who is said to have masterminded the Grand Slam that knocked out Nawaz Sharif, hoisted Imran Khan and ensured General Bajwa’s extension smoothly, will ascend the Miltablishment throne in November 2022 and continue on the path of the good and grand transformation of state and society launched in recent times.
Such is the stuff of hopeful elite chatter in drawing rooms no less than the hopeless refrain of the common man on the street.
But the perennial naysayers have not lost all hope yet. Politics, like everyday life, is not without its black swan. When Generals Musharraf and Bajwa were handpicked by Mr Sharif, no one could have imagined what role each might end up playing in their benefactor’s political ouster. Similarly, it would require a heroic feat of the imagination on the part of Imran Khan to think that he can remain in the great General’s good books for long if he slips up on delivering the tough economic and geo-strategic agenda at hand. At the end of the day, as the saying goes, a Pakistani Army Chief who can move a million armed men at the wag of his little finger is no one’s man except his own. Indeed, if the PM begins to think he has done the COAS any favour that must be returned, surely the COAS must be in a hurry to dispel such an impression in order to remain in command, and retain the respect of his rank and file.
The next year or two are going to be a hard test for the “same page” civil-military doctrine that is currently sprouting from every PTI rooftop. All bets are off!
What is surprising, though, is the form and timing of the announcement. There are still three months to go before Gen Bajwa’s first term ends. One can only speculate that the hurry may have been prompted by the need to divert attention from a chorus of angry voices criticizing the ruling junta’s mishandling of the Kashmir crisis, especially after crowing about President Donald Trump’s offer to mediate the conflict between India and Pakistan and likening Imran Khan’s trip to the US as a second World Cup victory!
Evidence of a hurried decision comes from three pointers. The first is the brief notification signed by the Prime Minister. It bypasses the President of Pakistan upon whose authority, on the written advice of the Prime Minister, such an appointment or extension is constitutionally made. No such advice was given before this notification was signed on 19 August. Second, it follows on the heels of the hurried arrest of Mariam Nawaz Sharif who was outspoken in her critique of the junta’s Kashmir policy and was expected to denounce the extension decision as well if she had been free. Third, the reason given for the extension – continuity of national security command in view of the regional situation – is thin on the ground. Inspired talk of the extension was leaked months ago when there was no India-provoked crisis in the region. It is also a poor reflection of the military’s institutional decision and command structure that it should admit dependency on one particular person at its apex.
The stunted response of the mainstream opposition parties isn’t surprising either. Apart from the usual suspects – like Farhatullah Babar of the PPP and a spokesman of the ANP who have taken principled stands – Mr Asif Ali Zardari, Bilawal Bhutto and Shahbaz Sharif are conspicuous by their silence. It is as if their silence was “coaxed” before announcing the decision so that no controversy would taint it. Under the circumstances, if the government, opposition and military are all “on the same page”, why should the media risk life or limb by not pretending that all is proper and well in the “national interest”?
PTI stalwarts have heaved a sigh of relief that General Bajwa will be sticking around for another three years to make sure that Imran Khan will complete his five years in office (if not in power). Indeed, some are going so far as to predict that Mr Khan will get another five years after that because the General-in-Waiting (who is said to have masterminded the Grand Slam that knocked out Nawaz Sharif, hoisted Imran Khan and ensured General Bajwa’s extension smoothly, will ascend the Miltablishment throne in November 2022 and continue on the path of the good and grand transformation of state and society launched in recent times.
Such is the stuff of hopeful elite chatter in drawing rooms no less than the hopeless refrain of the common man on the street.
But the perennial naysayers have not lost all hope yet. Politics, like everyday life, is not without its black swan. When Generals Musharraf and Bajwa were handpicked by Mr Sharif, no one could have imagined what role each might end up playing in their benefactor’s political ouster. Similarly, it would require a heroic feat of the imagination on the part of Imran Khan to think that he can remain in the great General’s good books for long if he slips up on delivering the tough economic and geo-strategic agenda at hand. At the end of the day, as the saying goes, a Pakistani Army Chief who can move a million armed men at the wag of his little finger is no one’s man except his own. Indeed, if the PM begins to think he has done the COAS any favour that must be returned, surely the COAS must be in a hurry to dispel such an impression in order to remain in command, and retain the respect of his rank and file.
The next year or two are going to be a hard test for the “same page” civil-military doctrine that is currently sprouting from every PTI rooftop. All bets are off!